| | | | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 | | Here's the thing about Week 18 and the rankings: We have no idea what's going to happen. | | Now, before you reply with something snarky-but-true about how we never have any idea what's going to happen, it's more true than normal in Week 18. Some teams will rest their starters. Which teams? And for how long? We have no idea! Some teams will give young guys an opportunity to show what they can. Others will give guys with nagging injuries they might otherwise play through the week off. Which teams? Which players? Again, we have no idea. | | We'll have a better idea by Friday because we'll have injury reports and more quotes from coaches, but the point is, the rankings this week are truly fluid. That's why we always tell you not to play into Week 18. It's a minefield, and you don't want your season coming down to whether Aaron Rodgers ends up only playing one quarter of football. When in doubt, err on the side of caution. If you think, say, the Cowboys are going to rest Ezekiel Elliott, don't plan on using him unless we get concrete evidence that he's going to play something like his normal role. | | So, that's your Week 18 advice, folks. As we've done so far this week, today's newsletter begins with an eye on the future. You got my early QB rankings Monday and my RB rankings Tuesday , so, naturally, wide receivers are today. There's another tough decision to be made here at the top of the position, and if you think I made the wrong call, feel free to shoot me a message at [email protected] and let me know. Or hit me up with any questions you've got. | | Before we get to all that, I want to remind you once again that you can vote for Fantasy MVP, Fantasy Rookie of the Year, Biggest Bust, Best Single-Game Performance, and 2022's No. 1 overall pick in our year-end survey here. I'll write about all of the winners in Friday's newsletter, along with picks from the rest of the FFT crew, so make sure you head here to vote! | | | | Early 2022 WR rankings | | | | The No. 1 wide receiver spot for 2022 is going to be a tough one to figure out. Cooper Kupp is capping off one of the best seasons we've ever seen from a wide receiver, and he's a perfectly reasonable choice for the WR1. He leads the league in catches, yards, and touchdowns. He has at least 92 yards in all but one game so far, and at least five catches in each. His 410 PPR points are 45 more than another non-QB. He's been a dominant force. | | He's also been exactly as good as Davante Adams was last season. Adams averaged 25.7 PPR points per game (he played 14); Kupp is averaging 25.7 points per game. Adams did it with a more touchdown-heavy approach, which could be argued is less sustainable than Kupp's, but that isn't giving Adams enough credit: His 16-game pace of 131 catches 1,569 yards is still pretty awesome. | | And he followed that up with a very similar season in 2021. If he matches his season averages in Week 18, he would finish with 125 catches, 1,598 yards, and 12 touchdowns. And his 16-game pace in 2019 was 110 catches for 1,329 yards and seven touchdowns; in 2018, it was 118-1,478-14. Which is to say, while Kupp has been better this season, Adams has been doing this for four seasons now. That's gotta count for something. | | Quite a bit, in fact. While I'm not saying I think what Kupp did this season was a fluke, but I think it's fair to bet that it will end up being the best season of his career. That's not a knock on him; it would be the best season for all but maybe five wide receivers in NFL history. But we've seen Adams have that season and we've seen him have several others nearly as good. | | So, Adams is the WR1, right? | | Well, it's not that easy. Because a big factor in keeping Adams so consistently dominant has been his connection with Aaron Rodgers, and we don't know where Rodgers is going to be playing QB in 2022. We're reasonably certain Adams will be back in Green Bay – reports came out this week that they are planning on using the franchise tag on him – but would he be a top-five WR if Jordan Love was his quarterback? | | I don't think that's where I'd rank him. He would be No. 1 if Rodgers does return – or if Adams finds a way into a better situation if Rodgers is gone – but with that uncertainty, Kupp takes the top spot for now. | | | | Cooper Kupp – Kupp has the fifth-most receiving yards and third-most receptions in a season with a game left. Okay, fine, that game is the 17th game, so we won't count it. It's only one of the five best seasons of all time. His consistency and upside were unparalleled this season. Davante Adams – If Rodgers is back, I'm taking Adams as the No. 3 player overall. Justin Jefferson – 103 catches, 1,509 yards and nine touchdowns. From a 22-year-old. If the Vikings opt for a more pass-heavy approach with their (expected) new coach, he could challenge for the No. 1 spot. Tyreek Hill – When 110 catches, 1,237 yards, and nine touchdowns is a letdown, you know the player in question is special. Hill is, and if the Chiefs can figure out how to overcome their weird second-half swoon, he could return to the WR1 conversation. Ja'Marr Chase – Chase just put together the best rookie season for a wide receiver ever, and he did that while sharing the field with another top-15 WR, coming off a season where he didn't play. Oh, and he was one of the youngest players in the league and still won't turn 22 until March of next season. If he makes the leap to the No. 1 WR, would anyone be surprised? Stefon Diggs – This was undoubtedly a disappointing season for Diggs, but 94 catches, 1,144 yards, and nine touchdowns is a pretty awesome disappointment. It felt like he and Josh Allen struggled to get on the same page at times, but that also makes me think there's still that 2020-esque potential here. A.J. Brown – Injuries are the big concern for Brown, but I worry some have forgotten how good he's been to date in his NFL career, so here: He ranks second in yards per target and yards per catch since entering the NFL. He ranks sixth in touchdown rate. He's another player who could finish as the WR1 and I wouldn't bat an eye, because I think he might just be the best WR in the NFL.Deebo Samuel – Deebo Samuel remained one of the best players in the NFL with the ball in his hands, the 49ers just decided this season to give him the ball a whole bunch more. Both in the backfield as a legitimate running back – 45 carries over the past seven games – but also as a legitimate alpha WR. His average depth of target dropped from -0.2 yards to 8.2, but he maintained his elite yards-after-catch mark. He's a special player, and this might not be giving him enough credit. Diontae Johnson – Speaking of not getting enough credit, I actually left Johnson off this initial list. I'm curious to see what the Steelers offense looks like if they have to replace Ben Roethlisberger , but Johnson is just so good at getting open that I think he'll be a big part of any quarterback's approach. He's a younger, better Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen – Allen is locked into a high-volume role with an elite young QB. He's not a difference maker like some of the guys ahead of him on the list, but he's about as safe as a non-elite WR can be. | | | 🔍Week 18 Position Previews and Rankings
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's everything you need to know for Week 18: | | QB Preview | | | Injuries: Joe Burrow (leg), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Kirk Cousins (COVID), Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), Drew Lock (shoulder), Jared Goff (knee), Mike Glennon (wrist) and Justin Fields (ankle)
Number to know: 69.5 -- Josh Allen has averaged 69.5 rushing yards per game in his past four games. He only averaged 35.2 in his first 12 games. Matchup that matters: Taysom Hill @ATL (30th in points allowed to QB)Top DFS play: "Josh Allen. I expect Allen to torch the Jets, and there will be enough value at the other positions to pay up for him." | | My Top 24 | | Josh Allen vs. NYJPatrick Mahomes @DENKyler Murray vs. SEAJustin Herbert @LVTom Brady vs. CARTaysom Hill @ATLTyler Huntley vs. PITDak Prescott @PHIJalen Hurts vs. DALDerek Carr vs. LACRyan Tannehill @HOUMatthew Stafford vs. SFRussell Wilson @ARITrey Lance @LARCarson Wentz @JAXAaron Rodgers @DET Kirk Cousins vs. CHIMac Jones @MIABen Roethlisberger @BALJoe Burrow @CLETua Tagovailoa vs. NETaylor Heinicke @NYGTrevor Lawrence vs. INDJustin Fields @MIN | | | | RB Preview | | | Injuries: Damien Harris (hamstring), James Conner (heel), Antonio Gibson (COVID), Ronald Jones (ankle), Ke'Shawn Vaughn (ribs), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder), Kareem Hunt (ankle), Michael Carter (concussion), Miles Sanders (hand), Boston Scott (COVID), Jordan Howard (COVID), David Johnson (COVID), Mark Ingram (knee), Alex Collins (abdomen), DeeJay Dallas (thigh) and Tevin Coleman (COVID)
Number to know: 139 -- Eagles running backs have averaged 109 yards per game. If Kenneth Gainwell is the only guy, he could be a top-12 back in Week 18.Matchup that matters: Devin Singletary vs. NYJ (32nd in points allowed to RB)Top DFS play: "Chase Edmonds. As long as Conner is out, Edmonds is the clear top running back play this week." | | My Top 48 | | Jonathan Taylor @JAXAustin Ekeler @LVDalvin Cook vs. CHIDavid Montgomery @MINJosh Jacobs vs. LACNajee Harris @BALAlvin Kamara @ATL Le'Veon Bell vs. CARD'Andre Swift vs. GBDarrel Williams @DENDevin Singletary vs. NYJSony Michel vs. SFJavonte Williams vs. KCRashaad Penny @ARIJaret Patterson @NYG Chase Edmonds vs. SEAD'Onta Foreman @HOUSaquon Barkley vs. WADNick Chubb vs. CINMichael Carter @BUFTony Pollard @PHIEzekiel Elliott @PHIJoe Mixon @CLEDare Ogunbowale vs. INDDevonta Freeman vs. PITKenneth Gainwell vs. DALElijah Mitchell @LARMelvin Gordon vs. KCAaron Jones @DETKareem Hunt vs. CINRex Burkhead vs. TENDamien Harris @MIA James Conner vs. SEARhamondre Stevenson @MIAJamaal Williams vs. GBCordarrelle Patterson vs. NOSamaje Perine @CLEAmeer Abdullah @TBAJ Dillon @DETDevontae Booker vs. WAD Mike Davis vs. NOBrandon Bolden @MIAChuba Hubbard @TBMark Ingram @ATLDerrick Gore @DENDuke Johnson vs. NENyheim Hines @JAXDontrell Hilliard @HOU | | WR Preview | | | Injuries: Jerry Jeudy (COVID), Tim Patrick (COVID), Michael Gallup (knee), Elijah Moore (COVID), Jamison Crowder (calf), Emmanuel Sanders (knee), Rondale Moore (ankle), Karadius Toney (shoulder), Nelson Agholor (concussion), Curtis Samuel (hamstring) and Tre'Quan Smith (chest)
Number to know: 57 -- Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 57 targets over his last five games.
Matchup that matters: Brandin Cooks vs. TEN (31st in points allowed to WR)Top DFS play: "Cooper Kupp. I think the Rams are going to get Kupp that record and there will be enough value available this week to play the top player at three positions, at least on FanDuel." | | My Top 48 | | Cooper Kupp vs. SFKeenan Allen @LVStefon Diggs vs. NYJJustin Jefferson vs. CHIDiontae Johnson @BALTyreek Hill @DENMarquise Brown vs. PITJaylen Waddle vs. NE Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. GBHunter Renfrow vs. LACA.J. Brown @HOUDeebo Samuel @LARBrandin Cooks vs. TENMichael Pittman @JAXD.K. Metcalf @ARIRussell Gage vs. NOMike Evans vs. CAR CeeDee Lamb @PHID.J. Moore @TBTyler Lockett @ARICole Beasley vs. NYJTee Higgins @CLEZay Jones vs. LACJarvis Landry vs. CINBraxton Berrios @BUF Davante Adams @DETMike Williams @LVOdell Beckham Jr. vs. SFChristian Kirk vs. SEAAmari Cooper @PHIChase Claypool @BALCyril Grayson vs. CARDarnell Mooney @MIN Laquon Treadwell vs. INDJakobi Meyers @MIADeVante Parker vs. NEJa'Marr Chase @CLETerry McLaurin @NYGCourtland Sutton vs. KCMarquez Callaway @ATLA.J. Green vs. SEA Laviska Shenault vs. INDKenny Golladay vs. WADMarvin Jones vs. INDGabriel Davis vs. NYJDeVonta Smith vs. DALK.J. Osborn vs. CHIVan Jefferson vs. SF | | TE Preview | | | Injuries: Kyle Pitts (hamstring), Hayden Hurst (COVID), Dallas Goedert (COVID), Darren Waller (knee), Ricky Seals-Jones (concussion) and James O'Shaughnessy (hip). Number to know: 2 -- George Kittle saw two targets in his first game with Trey Lance. His projected target volume will be a hot topic this offseason.
Matchup that matters: Dalton Schultz @PHI (31st in points allowed to TE)Top DFS play: "Zach Ertz. Ertz has a very good role without DeAndre Hopkins and an excellent matchup in Week 18." | | My Top 24 | | Mark Andrews vs. PITTravis Kelce @DENRob Gronkowski vs. CARGeorge Kittle @LARDalton Schultz @PHIDallas Goedert vs. DALKyle Pitts vs. NONoah Fant vs. KC Mike Gesicki vs. NEZach Ertz vs. SEAHunter Henry @MIAGerald Everett @ARIDawson Knox vs. NYJTyler Higbee vs. SFFoster Moreau vs. LACAustin Hooper vs. CIN Ricky Seals-Jones @NYGTyler Conklin vs. CHIPat Freiermuth @BALStephen Anderson @LVDavid Njoku vs. CINCole Kmet @MINJames O'Shaughnessy vs. INDC.J. Uzomah @CLE | | | | | | | | Europe's Best on P+ | | 24/7 Sports News | The 2021/22 UEFA Season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and thrilling in recent times! Watch Europe's Top clubs battle on the road to glory exclusively on Paramount+.
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