Here's What's Really Going on With Mortgage Rates This Week

We can appreciate that the daunting task of determining what "the" actual mortgage rate may be at any given moment. The word "the" is singled out in the previous sentence because there isn't one, perfect, singular, "going rate" for a mortgage. There's a bell curve with most lenders near the center and a few outliers at the margins. The only thing that comes close to being a constant across multiple lenders would be the bond market. Specifically, prices of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) determine the value associated with loans originated by mortgage lenders. Still, there are numerous variables that lenders control that determine what rates they can offer for any given price level of MBS. Looking at an individual rate quote from an individual lender is one way to know something fairly specific about rates, but of course things can still change for a variety of reasons between the initial quote and the closing table. In order to get a general idea of where mortgage rates are, it's common to turn to a rate index. In terms of circulation and historical availability, Freddie Mac's weekly rate index is the only game in town. Unfortunately, in terms of accuracy, on shorter time horizons, it leaves something to be desired--especially for those interested in knowing day to day changes. Freddie's survey is a 5 day average collected from Thursday through Wednesday and then reported the following day. When things are moving quickly, that means several inputs to the equation will no longer be relevant. We've also noticed that Freddie can quite simply undershoot the reality of a big, directional move, like the one we've seen take shape over the past 5 days. There's no telling why this occurs, but it could have something to do with the fact that--even after methodology changes--Freddie's survey still involves human input of rates that aren't necessarily available anymore.

October 10, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Here's What's Really Going on With Mortgage Rates This Week We can appreciate that the daunting task of determining what "the" actual mortgage rate may be at any given moment. The word "the" is singled out in the previous sentence because there isn't one, perfect, singular, "going rate" for a mortgage.&... (read more) MBS Commentary Mixed Reaction to Mixed Data At first glance, it looks as if the bond market will make it through Thursday morning without being too worse for the wear. When the monthly core CPI reading flashed 0.1 higher than expected (0.3 vs 0.2), there were clearly some doubts. Y... (read more) Rob Chrisman Correspondent, Climate Products; TILA, RESPA, False Claims News; CFPB Takes Action Hey, I like a good raccoon swarm as much as the next guy, but you couldn’t pay me to walk out there in that yard. Speaking of pay, a common question is how much how are LOs and managers paid, and STRATMOR’s blog is titled, “Lenders and Vendors Must P... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.62% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.62% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.12% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.75% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.56% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.15% -0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/10 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.16% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.32% +0.20 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% +0.16 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.03 0.57 15 Yr. Fixed 5.47% +0.05 0.52 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.47% +0.06 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.80 +0.08 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.80 +0.08 UMBS 5.5 100.36 +0.07 GNMA 5.0 99.15 +0.01 GNMA 5.5 100.58 +0.06 Pricing as of: 10/10 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0638 -0.0142 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.958 -0.063 5 YR Treasury 3.884 -0.032 7 YR Treasury 3.963 -0.019 10 YR Treasury 4.064 -0.014 30 YR Treasury 4.361 +0.020 Pricing as of: 10/10 5:31PM EST Latest Video Expect a 3-handle on the Fed funds rate by the middle of next year, says Wh... NY Fed's John Williams: Appropriate to continue reducing rates to a more ne... Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September, hotter than expected; annual rate i... Chicago Fed's Goolsbee: Inflation has come down and job market is around fu... Around the Web Marketwatch Homeowners havent drained cash out of their houses this fast since 2008 CNBC The Fed is finally cutting rates, but banks aren't in the clear just yet CNBC Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September, hotter than expected; annual rate increased 2.4% Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 258,000 Calculated Risk Blog Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.5% in 2025, Contribution Base increased to $176,100 CNBC Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2024 in one chart Calculated Risk Blog House Prices to Income CNBC Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025: Here's how benefits may change CNBC 33% of homeowners would hire a 'questionable' contractor to save money, report finds CNBC Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show Eye on Housing Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Third Quarter Federal Reserve Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September17-18, 2024 CNBC Treasury yields slightly higher as investors await inflation data

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