There's a real-life baseball game tomorrow. Did you know? The Padres and Dodgers are kicking off the spring schedule at 3:10 p.m. ET on Thursday afternoon, and it's going to be hard for me to avoid letting my excitement get the best of me. 

Some will tell you you're better off just ignoring Spring Training, and there's something to that. The spring schedule is unlike what the actual regular season game will look like in about a thousand ways -- players are riding buses across Florida and Arizona, sleeping in unfamiliar environments, and facing wildly divergent skill levels. Joe Musgrove is set to take the mound for the Padres in the spring opener, for example, and he'll be doing so with a lineup absent at least one Dodgers superstar -- Shohei Ohtani won't be playing in the spring opener. Will Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman? I'd like to see them, but there are no guarantees as of now!

So, yeah, Spring Training stats can be pretty safely ignored. I mean, Blake Sabol, Ezequiel Duran, and Robbie Grossman were second, third, and fourth in OPS last spring; JT Brubaker was fourth in strikeouts. Weird things happen in small sample sizes, especially when a given player might be facing as many minor-leaguers as not throughout the spring.

But it would be a mistake to actually ignore everything that happens in the spring. You shouldn't worry too much about performance, but there's a whole lot else we'll find out between now and Opening Day that definitely matters. Or, at least, probably matters. You just have to know what to look for, and in today's newsletter, I'm giving you the roadmap. 

Here are six types of news stories I'll be keeping my eyes out for in the spring, and as you read through the rest of the newsletter, I'll talk through what I'm looking for and why: 

• Injuries
• Velocity Readings 
• New Pitches
• Lineup News
• Position Battles
• Prospects Gaining Hype

Let's go through each one to explain why they matter, roughly in order of importance: 

This one goes without saying: Injuries are bad. A player who isn't available can't help your Fantasy team, obviously, though that is less of a concern right now than it will be when we get closer to the season -- a four-week injury right now might still leave time for players on most teams (Padres and Dodgers notwithstanding) to be ready for Opening Day. 

But that's not a guarantee. Setbacks happen, obviously, and compensation injuries can happen, too. A four-week injury right now could still leave a player ready for Opening Day, but it could also lead a player to rush back, leading either to a setback or, perhaps even worse, an injury that lingers long enough to just disrupt how a player performs. Consider Byron Buxton , who entered last season with a knee issue that limited him to DH duties. Buxton played 85 games, but unlike in 2022, he wasn't even productive when he played through it -- he had 11 fewer homers than in 2022, in just seven fewer games. 

That's the concern with the likes of Gunnar Henderson (oblique), Matt McLain ( oblique), or Noelvi Marte (hamstring ), who all entered game with injuries. If all goes according to plan, it sounds like all three will be ready for Opening Day. But they're missing important reps early in the spring, which could be especially harmful for Marte and McLain, who are in battles for playing time. Even if they get healthy by March, that delay could make it harder for them to be fully ready for Opening Day. 

And, of course, it's even more concerning with a pitcher like Kyle Bradish. Bradish sprained his UCL recently, and while the Orioles have downplayed it, it looks like he's going to open the regular season on the IL. Spring injuries are especially prevalent among pitchers, and because they have to spend the next five weeks building up to a regular season workload, even a two-week delay can cost them time when the games actually matter. That's the concern with someone like Justin Verlander, who is already throwing after an offseason shoulder " hiccup" -- any further delay could keep him out of the Opening Day rotation. 

Among the various categories and subcategories of Spring Training news you need to know about, injuries will always be at the top of the list. 

There are two things I want to say about velocity in particular: 

1. Velocity jumps early in the spring are more noteworthy than velocity drops. 
2. Just because a pitcher's velocity is different than expected right now does not necessarily mean it will matter come the regular season. 

Velocity drops seem concerning, and sometimes they are. But pitchers are often building up their arm strength at this point in the spring, and many will consciously throw at lower stress while they are building up. If you've been at this long enough, you'll remember the seemingly annual freakout about Zack Greinke's early-spring velocity; he would almost always end up being perfectly fine once the season started. 

On the other side of the ledger, we do love to see pitchers throwing hard. It isn't a cure-all for every pitcher -- those of us who went all-in on Reid Detmers last spring know that -- but, all other things being equal, throwing harder is better. So, it's nice to see that Tarik Skubal hit 100 mph in live BP at the open of camp. Not because I think it means he's going to throw 100 mph consistently, but because it's a sign that the velocity gains he made last season that were so pivotal to his breakout have seemingly stuck. 

Similarly, we're happy to see Carlos Rodon sitting 94-95 and hitting 97 mph during a recent live batting practice session. It's not a guarantee that Rodon will bounce back in 2024, but it's an awfully good sign after he reported to camp throwing in the high-80s this time last year. He struggled with forearm and back injuries and told reporters recently his mechanics were off pretty much all season , helping lead to what was ultimately a lost season. 

That being said, you only have to look to Chris Bassitt for an example of a pitcher whose concerns about velocity ended up being way overblown. He was sitting in the high-80s in spring, and his velocity was still down when the season started. But, though there were some ups and downs along the way, Bassitt still ended up throwing 200 innings of a 3.60 ERA while leading the AL in wins. He got most of the lost velocity back, and ended up being a pretty nice bargain wherever his price fell. 

The thing to keep in mind is, while more velocity is typically better, it isn't a static thing. Throwing slower or faster in February doesn't mean that's a new baseline. Players might be working on things besides velocity in bullpen sessions, or even during spring games; alternately, some pitchers may choose to air it out a bit more knowing they're throwing in shorter sessions. Lower velocity is a red flag, while higher velocity is a nice thing to note. But, neither should fundamentally change how you draft a player. 

The same goes for new pitches. It seems like every pitcher in the league is throwing a new splitter this spring, a trend MLB.com's Mike Petriello has been following on Twitter. It's always worth noting when a pitcher is working on a new pitch, but we shouldn't just assume it'll be a panacea, and I'll point to two Mariners pitchers to highlight that point.

Both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby added splitters to their arsenals last season, and they were both immediately very good pitches: Gilbert's was the 18th-most valuable splitter in the game, while Kirby's was 22nd, per BaseballSavant's run values stat. In each case, it was the pitcher's best swing-and-miss pitch ... and yet Kirby's strikeout rate actually went down in 2023; Gilbert's went up slightly, from 22.7% to 24.5%, but his ERA also rose more than a half-run. 

Which is to say: Even when a pitcher adds a new pitch, and even if that pitch sticks in their arsenal, and even if that pitch is a very good one, it might not be enough to dramatically alter their outlook. I'm glad to see talented-but-limited pitchers like Bryce Miller and Hunter Greene are working on expanding their repertoires, and if they look good in the spring, that might be a reason to give them a tie-breaking edge over a pitcher in their same range of the draft.

But we should be careful not to assume those new pitches will immediately lead to drastic improvements. That's not necessarily how it works. 

But man, it's fun to dream on how this new curveball might make Spencer Strider even more unhittable, huh? As if he needed the help. 

It's possible to overreact to lineup news in spring training, especially when it comes to spring lineups – is a player batting leadoff in the exhibition games because that's where he is going to hit when the season starts, or is it because the team wants to get him as many game reps as possible? It's not always clear from the outside. 

That being said, lineup position matters quite a bit. Last season, the No. 1 spot in the order averaged 742.5 plate appearances per team across the majors, while the No. 5 spot averaged 677; No. 9 was down at 600.6. That's about a 10% difference between the leadoff spot and the No. 5 spot, which is pretty massive. 

I wrote the other day about Red Sox manager Alex Cora declaring Jarren Duran as his choice for the leadoff spot, and that could be huge. Duran put up huge numbers as the leadoff hitter for the Red Sox, and could realistically steal 40 bases out of the top spot. Jung Hoo Lee also looks a lot more interesting as the Giants projected leadoff hitter; he doesn't project to hit for much power or to steal many bases, but he could brute force his way to Fantasy relevance if he's at the top of the lineup, scoring close to 100 runs with a useful batting average. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you've got someone like Michael Harris, who had an awesome 2023, hitting .293/.331/.477, but had just 57 RBI and 76 runs in large part because he spent 88 of his 138 games hitting ninth. That's one example of how being in a very good lineup can actually hold a player back, because Harris would be hitting in the top-three of nearly any other lineup in baseball, and might lose 100-plus PA as a result of it. 

One thing to keep in mind, of course, is that lineups are just snapshots of where a team is at any given point in time. Just because a player starts the season as a leadoff hitter doesn't mean they'll stay there; they still have to hit well to keep the spot, and most teams will go through many different variations of lineup throughout the season. But, all else being equal, you'd rather see a guy trending for a top-of-the-lineup spot in spring. 

This is an obvious one, and it applies to both pitchers and hitters. We'll have more in the coming days on the top position battles to watch across the league, but here are just a few to keep an eye on right now:

• Reds OF: TJ Freidl vs. Spencer Steer vs. Will Benson vs. Jake Fraley vs. Jonathan India(?)
• Reds INF: Spencer Steer vs. Jonathan India vs. Matt McLain vs. Noelvi Marte vs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand
• Rangers DH/OF: Wyatt Langford vs. Leody Taveras vs. Ezequiel Duran 
• Orioles 2B: Jackson Holliday vs. Jordan Westburg vs. Ramon Urias vs. Jorge Mateo
• Rays SS: Amed Rosario vs. Jose Caballero vs. Junior Caminero
• Twins OF: Matt Wallner vs. Trevor Larnach vs. Willi Castro
• Brewers INF: Brice Turang vs. Joey Ortiz vs. Tyler Black vs. Sal Frelick(?)
• Guardians 1B/DH/OF: Kyle Manzardo vs. Gabrial Arias vs. Estevan Florial

That's just a sample of the position battles we're going to be keeping an eye on this spring, and Scott White will have a much more in-depth look at everything you need to know in the coming days. But, generally speaking, there's a young, exciting guy we're rooting for in each spot, which brings us to … 

Last year, it was Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker who shot up draft boards with their spring performances ... and that didn't work out so well. But we've got another crop of super-interesting top prospects battling for jobs this spring. 

One guy who doesn't seem to have much of a battle: Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, who signed a massive extension before ever making an MLB appearance and seems penciled into the Brewers center field spot. Evan Carter is also a mortal lock for the Rangers Opening Day lineup after helping them win the World Series last year. Those are the two top prospects who will need something catastrophic to go down to not make the Opening Day roster.

Here are the other names you need to know about this spring:

• Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles (Scott White's No. 1 Fantasy prospect)
• Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers (No. 3)
• Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays (No. 4)
• Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates (No. 8)
• Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds (No. 9)
• Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks (No. 12)
• Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres (No. 14)
• Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers (No. 20)
• Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians (No. 26)
• Kyle Harrison, SP, Giants (No. 28)

Some of these guys are all-but guaranteed of a roster spot, like Keith and Harrison. Some are real long shots, like Lawlar and Caminero. The rest? They've all got a fighting chance this spring if they can go take the job.