| | | | Thursday, October 26, 2023 | | We have 16 games to preview today, which means we've got extra start/sit conundrums to ponder over and even more injury news to get to. That means there's no time for an extended intro here. Today's newsletter is a strictly utilitarian affair: I've written about every game on the Week 8 schedule, including my thoughts on one especially tough start/sit question, plus the latest injuries you need to know about. | | Let's get to it. | | Week 8 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRWeek 8 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TEJamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 8 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | | đWeek 8 Game Previews
| | There's something to watch in every game on the NFL schedule every week, even if you have to squint to see it sometimes. Here's a look ahead at every Week 8 game, with some notes on what Vegas is expecting to see, the latest injuries, and the toughest lineup decisions: | | All odds are via SportsLine's consensus odds. | | Buccaneers at Bills | | Thursday, 8:20 p.m.Line: Bills -8.5 42.5 O/U Implied totals: Bills 25.5, Buccaneers 17 | | Losers of two of the past three, the Bills suddenly look pretty vulnerable -- they just gave up 272 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt to Mac Jones a week ago. This defense has taken some losses due to injury, and while I do expect them to win this one, I don't feel comfortable enough in it to chase them in my survivor pools, necessarily. | | Toughest lineup decision: Rachaad White -- Start. I had some concerns about White's abilities to remain the unquestioned RB1 for the Buccaneers in the preseason, and with Chase Edmonds working his way back from IR, those questions are definitely still there. White is dead last in rush yards over expected, per NextGenStats, after being bottom 10 last season, which is the kind of consistency you aren't looking for. He's a very good pass-catcher, and that's what I'm continuing to look at when I rank him as an RB2. But he might be a PPR specialist before long if Edmonds gets active and shows anything. Injuries to watch: Baker Mayfield (knee) and Chris Godwin (neck) were both limited earlier in the week, but they both practiced without limitations Wednesday and should be good to go. I'm starting Godwin in all PPR leagues. On the Bills side, Dawson Knox (wrist) is out as expected, as he is going to need surgery to repair the injury. At this point, there isn't a timetable known. | | | | Rams at Cowboys | | Sunday, 1 p.m.Line: Cowboys -6.5; 45.5 O/UImplied totals: Cowboys 26, Rams 19.5 | | In theory, this game should have some fireworks, and I hope it does. But the way Dallas is playing on both sides hasn't exactly been conducive to shootouts. The Cowboys are fifth in scoring, but only 11 of their touchdowns have come from the offense -- they rank 18th in offensive scores per game right now. | | Toughest lineup decision: Darrell Henderson -- Start . I've made a point all week to note that Henderson should not be viewed as a sure thing for Fantasy Football right now. His usage in Week 7 was incredibly encouraging, as he had 18 of 30 RB carries, both RB targets, and a touch on all three of the team's snaps inside the 10-yard line. The likeliest outcome is that they roll him back out for a similar role, and he's worth using in Fantasy, but the Rams have no investment in Henderson, who is on the practice squad, which makes him an inherently risky player to rely on. Make sure they actually elevate him before locking him in your lineup. Injuries to watch: There are no Fantasy-relevant injuries we're tracking as of Wednesday evening. | | | | Vikings at Packers | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Even; 43 O/UImplied totals: Vikings 21.5, Packers 21.5 | | These teams enter Week 8 heading in very different directions, with the Vikings having won three of four while the Packers are losers of three straight, including two against the Raiders and Broncos. Would you believe Week 7 was the first time all season Jordan Love has completed more than 65% of his passes? | Toughest lineup decision: Aaron Jones - Start . It's been a tough season for Jones, who was terrific in Week 1 and basically hasn't done anything since. The reason I'm keeping the faith is because this Packers offense so desperately needs him to get healthy and start carrying more of the load. Maybe it's too much to ask from a 28-year-old back who has struggled to get back to full health since suffering that hamstring injury nearly two months ago, but unless I have two backs I feel really good about, I'm probably just going to keep rolling Jones out there and hoping he looks like himself at some point. Injuries to watch: Of course, the fact that Jones didn't practice Wednesday is a red flag, obviously. Packers coach Matt LaFleur told reporters Jones is, "just a little bit sore. It's to be expected. Hopefully we can ramp him up." That's more concerning than I was hoping, and if he doesn't practice Thursday, I'd definitely pivot to benching him. TE Luke Musgrave (ankle) also didn't practice Wednesday, though he's much fringier. On the Vikings side, T.J. Hockenson (foot) didn't practice Wednesday, just two days after leaving the game multiple times with the injury. Hopefully it's a non-issue, but it's one to watch over the next few days.
| | Falcons at Titans | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Falcons -2.5; 36 O/UImplied totals: Bills 24.75, Patriots 16.25 | | You know that saying about how if you have two quarterbacks, it means you don't have one? Well, as of Wednesday, Titans coach Mike Vrabel is continuing to insist he's going to play both rookie Will Levis and Malik Willis this week if Ryan Tannehill can't go. It's going to be tough to trust anyone in this offense except Derrick Henry, who had 309 total yards and three touchdowns in Willis' three starts last season. | | Toughest lineup decision: Bijan Robinson -- Start. Robinson's nearly nonexistent role in Week 7 was frustrating, but you shouldn't let that frustration linger. Robinson was not limited in practice Wednesday due to the headache issues that kept him limited Sunday, and there doesn't seem to be any concern that this will be a lingering issue. I can't guarantee there won't be another situation like that again, but at this point, I see no reason to think it'll linger and limit Robinson. If anything, I could see a situation where the Falcons feature Robinson as a sort of "make up" after they held him out last week. Injuries to watch: Ryan Tannehill (ankle) didn't practice Wednesday and isn't expected to play. Treylon Burks (knee) did practice in full and could make his return this week, and he's still an interesting stash in deeper leagues. | | Saints at Colts | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Colts -1; 43.5 O/UImplied totals: Colts 22.25, Saints 21.25 | | Gardner Minshew's wild ride hasn't exactly been a fun one for the Colts so far, as the backup-turned-starter has been responsible for four turnovers over the past two weeks. He's also passed for 300-plus yards in each game, so it hasn't been all bad, especially for Fantasy purposes. Hey, we don't care if the Colts lose, right? | | Toughest lineup decision: Zack Moss -- Sit. I don't think Moss is just going to be completely buried on the bench moving forward, but Week 7 sure had the feeling of Jonathan Taylor finally being back , and I have a hard time seeing how the Colts go back to just an even split. Moss will still get his role, assuming he's healthy enough to play, but Taylor finally looked like the explosive, dominant playmaker we expected last week, and making sure he gets 15-20 touches every week probably has to be a priority for this offense moving forward. That makes it tougher to trust Moss, especially against a stout Saints defense holding opposing running backs to under 3.9 yards per carry. If you still need an RB, Moss should still be in line for double-digit touches, but I think we're past the point where you can just start him without a second thought. It was a fun run, though. That Moss didn't practice Wednesday with elbow and heel injuries only makes him a riskier play. Injuries to watch: Alvin Kamara (illness) did not practice Wednesday, but at this point it doesn't seem like something to be too worried about. Call me if he's sitting out Friday's session. Juwan Johnson (calf) did practice in full, making Taysom Hill a riskier start. Hill has been used like a traditional tight end in Johnson's absence, and I just don't know if that will continue. | | Patriots at Dolphins | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Dolphins -9.5; 47 O/UImplied totals: Dolphins 28.25, Patriots 18.75 | | When they're healthy, the Dolphins are pretty clearly one of the best teams in the NFL. But Jaylen Waddle was playing at much less than 100% last week, and now Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert are dealing with injuries. Hopefully they'll be OK, but that's an awful lot of talent potentially missing that makes it awfully tough to know how to approach that offense right now. | Toughest lineup decision: Rhamondre Stevenson -- Start. Stevenson had a solid game in Week 7, but the usage looked pretty concerning. However, I'll tip my hat to Ben Gretch's Stealing Signals newsletter, where he noted that Ezekiel Elliott's four Green Zone touches (inside the 10-yard line) came in drives where he was already in, rather than drives where he replaced Stevenson. Which is to say, it's not like Stevenson is just ceding goal-line work to Elliott by default. It's still a less-than-ideal situation for Stevenson, with Elliott seeing double-digit touches in four games so far. But Stevenson's role as a pass-catcher keeps him involved even in negative game scripts, and the matchup with Miami could benefit him. He's an RB2 this week.
Injuries to watch: Tyreek Hill (hip) and Raheem Mostert (ankle) didn't practice Wednesday, and right now, I'm assuming Hill's is the more serious concern -- Mostert doesn't typically practice Wednesday's anyways, so this could be a bit of maintenance as well. With Hill, we don't have any details, but there was an ominous quote from Tua Tagovailoa, who said, "If we couldn't have Tyreek, that would be tough, but the show goes on. You've got to continue to play, and somewhere down the line we're going to get Tyreek back." Emphasis mine. Jaylen Waddle also said it was "above my pay grade" to talk about the chances of Hill sitting out Sunday. None of that is a guarantee Hill won't play, obviously, but this definitely merits a close watch over the next few days, just to be sure.
| | Jets at Giants | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Jets -3; 36.5 O/UImplied totals: Jets 19.75, Giants 16.75 | | We're likely looking at a couple of backups squaring off this week, with the Jets getting the benefit from the oddsmakers thanks to their edge on defense. I think that makes sense. | Toughest lineup decision: Garrett Wilson -- Start. It's been a bumpy road for Wilson, but that was to be expected once Aaron Rodgers went down four plays into the season. However, he's getting significant volume nearly every week, with at least eight targets in four of six games, including four of the past five. There are going to be games where Wilson struggles, because the quality of targets he's seeing is likely to remain very low. But he's an incredibly talented player who has proven he can make the most of his poor circumstances, and I'm not sitting him at this point. Injuries to watch: Daniel Jones (neck) still hasn't been cleared to take contact, so it really doesn't matter that he's limited at practice; he's not going to play until he's cleared. The news for the rest of the Giants is pretty positive otherwise, with Saquon Barkley (elbow) and Andrew Thomas (hamstring) both limited. I'm expecting Barkley to play, while Jones' status will have to be monitored the rest of the week.
| | Jaguars at Steelers | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Jaguars -2.5; 42 O/UImplied totals: Jaguars 22.25, Steelers 19.75 | | The Steelers offense looked better last week coming out of the bye. It didn't look great, mind you, but it didn't look like a bottom-five unit, especially in the passing game. There may be hope here yet, especially with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson both looking more multi-dimensional last week than they did at any point last season. I think both are viable Fantasy options. | | Toughest lineup decision: Calvin Ridley -- Start . I certainly can't say Ridley is a must-start Fantasy option anymore, unfortunately. But I do think we're going to look back on Week 7 as the clear low point in his season, and there will be several more highs to come. Is he the WR1 you hoped he would be? Definitely not. But Ridley has struggled with teams that play a more physical style of man coverage, and that makes his struggles against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore really easy to understand. The Steelers aren't a walk in the park, but it should be a bit easier for him, and I'm still going to view him as a viable starter with upside. It's just that he has more in common with someone like Gabe Davis than we ever thought possible. Injuries to watch: Zay Jones (knee) still isn't practicing, so it looks like it'll be another week for him. Trevor Lawrence (knee) was limited at practice Wednesday, but with the extra time off this week, there shouldn't be any issue. | | Eagles at Commanders | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Eagles -6.5; 43.5 O/UImplied totals: Eagles 25, Commanders 18.5 | | David Carr holds the NFL record for most times sacked in a season with 76 in 2002. Sam Howell is on pace to break that by Week 14, and his matchup this week came two sacks shy of the NFL record last season and are tied for third this season. Yikes. | | Toughest lineup decision: Brian Robinson -- Sit. I made the case for trying to sell Brian Robinson in yesterday's newsletter, and I don't expect things to get much better for him this week. I'm sure the Commanders are going to try to establish the run earlier to keep the Eagles off the field, but I think your best hope here if you're starting him is a short-yardage touchdown, just like last week. Injuries to watch: Curtis Samuel (foot) didn't practice Wednesday with a new injury. We'll keep an eye on it the rest of the week, but Samuel is just a fringe Fantasy option when healthy, so it should be easy enough to get away from him. | | Texans at Panthers | | Sunday, 1:00 p.m.Line: Texans -3; 43 O/UImplied totals: Texans 23, Panthers 20 | | I'm sure there's no bad feelings between C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, but I'm sure both would like to win the first matchup between the top two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. | | Toughest lineup decision: Dameon Pierce -- Sit. In a different week, it might be harder to get away from Pierce. But with no teams on bye in Week 8, I would hope you have better options. I would still start the likes of Alexander Mattison, Gus Edwards, and Najee Harris ahead of Pierce, even in what looks like a pretty good matchup. He's still got a pretty healthy workload in the running game, with 24, 20, and 13 carries in his past three games, but with just two catches on three targets in that span, there just aren't many avenues for him to find upside. Right now, Pierce's path to Fantasy viability runs through the end zone, and he has one touchdown all season. He could change that this week, but if he doesn't, it's probably going to be another disappointing showing. Injuries to watch: Miles Sanders returned to a full participation in practice Wednesday after missing Week 6 with a shoulder injury, so it looks like he's set to return. I expect him to share touches with Chuba Hubbard, in what might be more like a 55-45 split moving forward. It's not an ideal spot for Sanders, who is just an RB3 thanks to his pass-catching role. On the other side, Robert Woods (foot) didn't practice Wednesday, while Tank Dell (concussion) did after missing Week 6. Dell is a WR3 with upside if Woods is out; both are WR4s otherwise. | | Browns at Seahawks | | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.Line: Seahawks -3.5; 39 O/UImplied totals: Seahawks 21.25, 17.75 | | The Browns have now won both of the games P.J. Walker has played the majority of, but I don't think I'm saying anything outlandish when I say it's been in spite of him -- he has completed 50% of his passes for 5.6 yards per attempt. If the Seahawks are going to win, it's going to be because their defense and running game stepped up, and their running game is very beat up right now. It's a tough spot. | Toughest lineup decision: Amari Cooper -- Sit. For what it's worth, I'm not just going away from Cooper entirely. He has 130 yards in two games with Walker, albeit on just six catches. However, he's also been targeted 16 times, good for a 24% target share from Walker, which is solid WR1 work. The quality of those targets has been poor so far, but Cooper is still a talented wide receiver seeing enough volume that you don't want to write him off entirely. He's just more like a boom-or-bust WR3 than anything else right now. Injuries to watch: Jerome Ford (ankle) is dealing with a high-ankle sprain that is expected to cost him at least a week, and probably more. He was joined on the sidelines Wednesday by Kareem Hunt (thigh), which leaves Pierre Strong as the only healthy running back on the roster as of Wednesday. He could be in line for a significant role, and would be in the RB2/3 range if Hunt is out. Deshaun Watson (shoulder) has already been ruled out for this week, as he will "rest this week and focus on the rehab," per coach Kevin Stefanski. My expectations for him the rest of the way remain incredibly low. On the Seahawks side, Tyler Lockett (hamstring) and Kenneth Walker (calf) were both held out of Wednesday's practice, with Walker's injury more of a concern since it's new; Lockett dealt with the injury last week before playing. We'll keep a close eye on Walker's status over the next few days, with Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) limited Wednesday. If he plays and Walker doesn't, Charbonnet would be a top-20 RB even against a tough matchup. DK Metcalf (ribs/hip) was a full participant and told reporters he expects to play this week, so there is at least some good news here.
| | Chiefs at Broncos | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Chiefs -7; 46 O/UImplied totals: Chiefs 26.5, Broncos 19.5 | | A few weeks ago, the Broncos looked like a historically bad defense. Then they held the Chiefs of all teams to 19 points, before following it up by holding the Packers to 17. Can they repeat the trick? I'm not buying it, and neither is Vegas. | | Toughest lineup decision: Rashee Rice -- Sit . This is another one where I want to make clear that I'm not just saying you should sit Rice in all leagues and all formats. But most of you still play in two-WR, one-Flex leagues, and yeah, I'm not sure I'm there with him just yet. He had 11.2 PPR points two weeks ago in this same matchup, and followed it up with 17 points, and he clearly seems to be ascending; his snap share was up to a season-high 59% in Week 7, which is a great sign, obviously. However, we still haven't seen Rice play a true full-time role, and he hasn't had more than six targets in a game since Week 3 -- and that was his season-high. He's a fine roll of the dice, but he is by no means a sure thing yet. Injuries to watch: As of Wednesday, there aren't any significant injuries we're keeping an eye out for in this one. | | Ravens at Cardinals | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: Ravens -8.5; 44 O/UImplied totals: Ravens 26.25, Cardinals 17.75 | | The Ravens have had a habit over the past few seasons of playing down in winnable games, and you only have to look at Week 3 against the Colts or Week 5 against the Steelers to see that. Coming off a dismantling of the Lions in Week 7 that stands as maybe the most impressive game any team has played this season, are they at risk of a letdown? I'd be pretty surprised. | Toughest lineup decision: Emari Demercado -- Start. I mean ... I think. Right? I can't pretend like I know what is going to happen here after Demercado went from three touches in Week 6 to being the clear lead back and playing 80% of the snaps in Week 7. I'm assuming it means he'll be the lead back again, but I would have told you he was droppable this time last week, so I can't say much of anything with confidence. In PPR leagues especially, Demercado is in that RB2/3 range, and I would start him over someone like Alexander Mattison or Miles Sanders. Injuries to watch: Oh, I'm burying the lede: Kyler Murray practiced in full Wednesday! I'd be a little bit surprised if he played this week regardless, but clearly he's getting close. If not this week, next week seems all but certain, so go make sure he's not rostered in your league already. There's still top-12 upside there.
| | Bengals at 49ers | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.Line: 49ers -3.5; 43.5 O/UImplied totals: 49ers 23.5, Bengals 20 | | The line dropped from 49ers -5.5 to -3.5 with the news of Brock Purdy's concussion, which isn't an especially big drop for a starting quarterback's absence. I wrote about the injury here, and why I am downgrading the 49ers offensive weapons, though again, not a ton. | | Toughest lineup decision: Tee Higgins -- Start. It's been a rough season for Higgins, both because of Joe Burrow 's struggles and his own, mostly injury-related, issues. But I'm still trying to buy Higgins where I can. It's a tough matchup this week, but the 49ers are vulnerable through the air if they're vulnerable anywhere, and I just can't bring myself to sit a player like Higgins when he's healthy. Injuries to watch: Purdy didn't practice Wednesday, and neither did Deebo Samuel (shoulder), who is expected to miss at least one more game. | | Bears at Chargers | | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.Line: Chargers -8.5; 46.5 O/UImplied totals: Chargers 27.5, Bears 19 | | Tyson Bagent got the win in his first career start, but I'm not buying him as any kind of answer at the QB position for the Bears. They ran into a matchup where they could play an incredibly conservative game plan and not lose. I don't expect they'll be able to do the same against the Chargers, and I don't think things will go as well this time around. | | Toughest lineup decision: D.J. Moore -- Start. O ne of the adjustments I made in my projections for the Bears offense was docking Moore's catch rate with Bagent, but at least last week, that was the wrong move. Because the Bears opted to make things incredibly easy for Bagent, dialing up a bunch of short, easy throws to Moore to get a rhythm established early. I'm expecting more of the same, which should give Moore a decent PPR floor, though how you'll feel about him in your starting lineup will likely come down to how Bagent reacts when things inevitably go less well than they did a week ago and he has to start pushing it downfield. That's where I think things could get pretty ugly. Injuries to watch: Justin Fields (thumb) hasn't been ruled out yet for Week 8, but it seems all but certain. Roschon Johnson (concussion) did finally practice Wednesday, in full, so he should be able to return. I'm expecting D'Onta Foreman to remain the lead back, with Johnson handling more of the passing downs and a few carries here and there, as Darrynton Evans has the past few weeks. But Johnson has more upside than Evans, both from a talent and a usage perspective, especially if he gets hot. One to watch on the other side is Josh Palmer (knee), who didn't practice Wednesday with a new injury. This one bears watching over the next couple of days, because I've been very impressed with the way Palmer is making plays down the field. He'll be a WR3 if healthy. | | Raiders at Lions | | Monday, 8:15 p.m.Line: Lions -8; 45.5 O/UImplied totals: Lions 26.75, Raiders 18.75 | | Did the Ravens expose the Lions defense? I mean, sure, if every team could get Lamar Jackson. While I don't think the Lions defense is going to be an elite unit moving forward, I don't think last week provided any kind of viable blueprint, and certainly not for a team with the statues the Raiders have at QB. | | Toughest lineup decision: Josh Jacobs -- Start. It's not actually a tough decision, but I'm sure we'll get some questions about Jacobs coming off his worst game of the season. I understand if you're frustrated, but Jacobs also had a receiving touchdown overturned by review last week that would have made it a much better game. He's still getting a ton of opportunities, and is going to have a breakout game soon. I'm not even thinking about sitting Jacobs. Injuries to watch: Neither team will practice until Thursday, but I'm expecting Jimmy Garoppolo (back) to play and for David Montgomery (thigh) to likely sit. | | | | | | | | MaxPreps App | | Pick Six | Every team, every player, every game. Get the latest high school scores, exclusive rankings, news and more in the MaxPreps app.
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