| | | | Thursday, December 21, 2023 | | You don't need a long-winded intro from me today. You need start and sit recommendations. You need injury updates. You need help setting your lineup for tonight's first lock, and that's what today's newsletter is all about. | | So, let's got on with it. Remember to send me your questions at [email protected] to be included in a mailbag edition of the newsletter tomorrow morning to help set those lineups. Just make sure you use the subject line "#AskFFT" so I can keep track of them. | | | | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRWeek 16 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TEJamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 16 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | đWeek 16 Game Previews
| | There's something to watch in every game on the NFL schedule every week, even if you have to squint to see it sometimes. Here's a look ahead at every Week 16 game, with some notes on what Vegas is expecting to see, the latest injuries, and the toughest lineup decisions: | | All odds are via SportsLine's consensus odds. | | Saints at Rams | | Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ETLine: Rams -4; 46.5 O/UImplied totals: Rams 25.25, Saints 21.25 | | For a game between two .500 teams in Week 15, the stakes here are actually considerable: The Rams are currently the seven seed in the NFC, while the Saints are tied for first in the NFC South (but without the tiebreaker against the Buccaneers. This is kind of a must-win for both. | | Toughest lineup decision: Chris Olave -- Start. It's been a tough season for Olave, despite the fact that he's been a bit better than his rookie season. The connection with Derek Carr has just never seemed right, and they've left a lot of points on the field. Still, with how the Rams are playing right now, it's hard to see the Saints having much of a chance if they can't get the best weapon in their passing game going. As long as Olave is active, I'm playing him. Injuries to watch: Olave (ankle) was removed from the injury report for this week's game, so he should be good to go barring any setbacks. | | | | Bengals at Steelers | | Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ETLine: Bengals -2; 36.5 O/UImplied totals: Bengals 19.25, Steelers 17.25 | | The Bengals have managed to remain firmly in the playoff hunt despite the loss of Joe Burrow; the Steelers are only a game back, but the vibes are significantly worse after losing three straight to the Cardinals, Patriots, and Colts. Things have gotten so bad that they're turning to third-string QB Mason Rudolph ahead of Mitchell Trubisky this week. | | Toughest lineup decision: Pat Freiermuth -- Start. Okay, so I'm not actually ranking Freiermuth as a starting TE for Fantasy, so this is more like a streaming recommendation. If you have someone you trust, it's fine to ignore Freiermuth, but if you're choosing between untrustworthy options like Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts , I might consider rolling the dice on Freiermuth. He has just three catches in each of his past three games, so there are no guarantees he'll hit. But the last time he faced the Bengals, he went for 9-120, and the Bengals have allowed the second-most points to TE in PPR scoring this season. If he's going to put together another big game, this feels like the spot for it. It doesn't hurt that the last time Rudolph started for the Steelers, Freiermuth had nine targets. Injuries to watch: Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) is not expected to play after leaving last week's game with a separation. Tee Higgins is a volatile WR2 if Chase is out. On the other side, Kenny Pickett (ankle) is back at practice on a limited basis, but is not expected to play this week. We may see him next week. | | Bills at Chargers | | Saturday, 8 p.m. ETLine: Bills -12; 43.5 O/UImplied totals: Bills 27.75, Chargers 15.75 | | The Chargers lost their last game by 42, so a 12-point line doesn't sound so bad in that context. We'll see if they get a post-firing bump after getting rid of Brandon Staley, but injuries seem like the bigger issue than anything with the coach here. | Toughest lineup decision: Austin Ekeler -- Start. We got an Ekeler question for tomorrow's newsletter, but I wanted to address him here. The gist of the question was, "What does Ekeler have to do to get you guys to stop ranking him as a starting-caliber option?" To a certain extent, I get it: Ekeler has been one of the biggest disappointments in Fantasy, and now he's playing in an offense that might just be a pretty big disaster thanks to injuries. Can you really trust him in another potential blowout? Well, the running game workload looks pretty iffy right now, but if the Chargers can avoid going down 40-plus in the first half, I still think he's a good bet to get to double-digit carries, and he has 13 targets over the past two games despite playing just 40% of the snaps last week. Ekeler hasn't looked like the same guy all season, but he's still RB13 in points per game and has that passing game role, and that's enough to keep him as an RB2.
Injuries to watch: James Cook was added to the injury report Thursday with a DNP status, but it's an illness, so hopefully he'll be good to go by Saturday. Cook is a must-start RB coming off the best game of his young career. On the other side, it looks like Keenan Allen (heel) may still need some time, as he has been unable to practice either day so far. | | | | Colts at Falcons | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Colts -1; 44.5 O/UImplied totals: Colts 22.75, Falcons 21.75 | | Falcons owner Arthur Blank certainly didn't give Arthur Smith a vote of confidence when he spoke to the media recently, and I think it's reasonable to assume Smith is coaching for his job at this point. They still have a chance to win the NFC South, but they're switching back to Taylor Heinicke at QB, who went 0-2 and wasn't really any kind of upgrade over Desmond Ridder. As they showed last night, the Falcons are more than capable of losing to anyone any given Sunday. | | Toughest lineup decision: Colts RBs -- Start. The problem here is, as of Wednesday afternoon, I have no idea which one that's going to be. If Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss are both out, I think Trey Sermon is an intriguing RB2/3, akin to Zamir White last Thursday. If it's just Moss who plays, he's a top-12 RB; if Taylor is back, I'm starting him regardless of whether Moss is in there or not, though obviously having Moss there would limit his appeal some. There are a lot of moving parts here, and it's a tough matchup against the Falcons, but I'm still going to trust the lead back in this offense. Whoever it is. Injuries to watch: As of Wednesday, at least, it looks like it's going to be Taylor, who practiced in full while Moss (forearm) was unable to practice. The other good news here is that Michael Pittman (concussion) practiced on a limited basis after that scary hit last week. It looks like he's got a chance this week, and would be a top-12 WR if he plays. | | Seahawks at Titans | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Seahawks -3; 41.5 O/UImplied totals: Seahawks 22.25, Titans 19.25 | | The Seahawks got an incredible moment out of Drew Lock last week, but they're expected to turn back to a healthy Geno Smith this week. That's probably for the best; Lock had just 116 yards in Week 14 before his game-winning drive. This offense needs better QB play to live up to expectations. | | Toughest lineup decision: Kenneth Walker -- Start . For a while there early in the season, Walker looked like he might be playing his way into first-round consideration, but the second half of the season has not gone according to plan. Injuries have played a part in that, to be certain, but it's also worth noting that his only games with more than nine carries since Week 7 have come in two of the three Seahawks wins. I wish Walker's workload was more projectable, but I think he still has enough upside to view as a fringe RB2. Injuries to watch: Will Levis (ankle) did not practice Wednesday due to a high-ankle sprain suffered in last week's game. If he can't play Ryan Tannehill would take over as QB, and honestly, I don't think it would be a downgrade for the Titans offense. The Seahawks enter the week pretty banged up, with Kenneth Walker (shoulder) sitting out practice Wednesday along with a couple of key defensive players. The good news is, they should get Geno Smith back (groin) after he missed two weeks, as Smith was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. | | Lions at Vikings | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Lions -3.5; 46.5 O/UImplied totals: Lions 25, Vikings 21.5 | | Even with this game being played in Minneapolis, it's kind of surprising to the see the Lions only favored by 3.5 for this one. That's a reflection of the strides the Vikings defense has taken this season, and they could put themselves in position for a playoff spot with a win here. | | Toughest lineup decision: Jordan Addison -- Start. It's definitely an easier call to make after Addison put together a 29.1-point showing in PPR in Week 14. You can't expect 111 yards and two touchdowns on six targets every week, of course, though it's fair to assume Addison's efficiency was helped out by the defensive attention Justin Jefferson draws. Still, the Vikings are still throwing the ball well despite being down to their fourth starting QB of the season, and Addison has enough upside to remain worth chasing, even if he's not exactly a sure thing. Injuries to watch: Alexander Mattison (ankle) did not practice to open the week, though head coach Kevin O'Connell did tell reporters he expects Mattison to practice at some point this week. That being said, he also said Ty Chandler "is absolutely a guy that is going to see a featured role in our offense." That makes me optimistic about Chandler as an RB2 even if Mattison plays. | | Commanders at Jets | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Jets -3; 37.5 O/UImplied totals: Jets 20.25, Commanders 17.25 | | It says something about how bad the Commanders defense has been this season that the Jets' implied total is as high as it is when they've matched that mark three times all season and might be playing a backup quarterback this week. | | Toughest lineup decision: Sam Howell -- Sit. Howell has been a pretty useful Fantasy option at times this season, and he's even remained Fantasy relevant during his worst stretch as a passer thanks to four rushing touchdowns in his past four games. However, the Commanders finally turned things over to Jacoby Brissett last last week with Howell struggling, and while Howell remains the starter, you simply cannot count out the possibility of another benching at this point. There's still upside here, but if the Jets pass rush overwhelms Howell, we could see Brissett in relief again this week. I'm avoiding him outside of 2QB leagues, and Terry McLaurin might be the only player in this offense I want to start (and even he's pretty fringe in this matchup). Injuries to watch: Brian Robinson (hamstring) still isn't practicing, though after we watched Antonio Gibson get just four carries last week, I'm not sure how you could be excited about starting him, especially against a matchup like this. He's just an RB3 for PPR scoring. Zach Wilson (concussion) also didn't practice Wednesday, making him very much in doubt for this week. Trevor Siemian will likely start if Wilson can't go, and we've seen that's a downgrade for this offense. | | Packers at Panthers | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Packers -5; 36.5 O/UImplied totals: Packers 20.75, Panthers 15.75 | | Even with the Panthers winning their second game last week, they didn't manage an offensive touchdown. The Packers playoff hopes have taken a hit with consecutive losses to the Giants and Buccaneers, and their season will be over if they can't manage to win this one. | | Toughest lineup decision: Jordan Love -- Start . I think the best way to describe Love's first season as a starter would be, "Promising, but inconsistent." There's been some upside, for sure, but he's been tough to trust; even during his best stretch of the season, he stumbled to a 10.9-point showing against the Giants a few weeks. This could very easily be a game where the Packers don't have to be aggressive, but I'm not sure they've got enough in the running game to go run-heavy even if that's the case, so I'll roll the dice with Love here. Injuries to watch: AJ Dillon (thumb) got in a limited practice session Wednesday, but I'm not sure that tells us too much about his chances of playing through this fractured thumb. After all, he was limited last Friday before sitting out. I wouldn't trust Dillon even if he does play. Jayden Reed (toe/chest) and Christian Watson (hamstring) both also sat out Wednesday's session, and as of now, their chances of playing are very much unknown, but I wouldn't plan on having them available. | | Browns at Texans | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Browns -2.5; 40.5 O/UImplied totals: Browns 21.5, Texans 19 | | The Browns keep finding ways to win, and the schedule is doing them a lot of favors with C.J. Stroud looking unlikely to play yet again this week. | | Toughest lineup decision: Noah Brown -- Sit. I can't deny there is significant upside with Noah Brown in this offense right now, based on his 11 targets last week with Nico Collins sidelined. He could have that kind of role yet again in a game the Texans should be trailing in, and as far as boom-or-bust WR3/4s go, he's certainly not the worst. but let's not forget that Brown will be catching passes from a below-average QB at best if Stroud can't go, and he'll be going against one of the toughest matchups in the league. I don't mind starting Brown, Devin Singletary, or Dalton Schultz, but if Stroud is out, they're all very risky. Injuries to watch: C.J. Stroud (concussion) has yet to clear the protocol and seems likely to be out this week. Head coach DeMeco Ryans did tell reporters Wednesday he does not expect this issue to be season-ending for Stroud. The other key injury here is Nico Collins (calf), who was able to work up to a limited practice session Wednesday. He'll be in the WR2 range of the rankings even without Stroud if he plays, and his absence would make it even tougher to justify Brown. | | Jaguars at Buccaneers | | Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ETLine: Buccaneers -1; 42.5 O/UImplied totals: Buccaneers 21.75, Jaguars 20.75 | | The line here feels extra-fluid, with Trevor Lawrence's status up in the air after suffering a concussion last week. Lawrence didn't practice Wednesday to kick off the week, so he might not be able to take advantage of one of the best matchups for quarterbacks. | | Toughest lineup decision: Calvin Ridley -- Sit. Ridley isn't an automatic sit of C.J. Beathard is starting for the Jaguars, but he also certainly isn't an automatic start if Lawrence is starting. I would lean toward starting him if Lawrence does play, because he has 25 targets over the past two games and has shown significant upside at times this season. But he also has just 118 yards over the past three games, so if it's Beathard, I lean toward sitting him. Injuries to watch: Lawrence didn't practice Wednesday, and neither did Zay Jones (hamstring/knee). There's real risk neither plays this week, it seems, though it's too early to say for sure. On the Buccaneers side, Chris Godwin (knee) was limited Wednesday, but he managed his best game of the season last week despite missing two days of practice, so I'm not too concerned there. He's in the WR3 range for me. | | Cardinals at Bears | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETLine: Bears -4; 44.5 O/UImplied totals: Rams 28, Commanders 21.5 | | The Bears playoff hopes are still technically alive, but they're the longest of long shots at this point. But both of these teams still have plenty to play for, with big QB questions looming on both sides that mean they'll be going hard until the very end. | Toughest lineup decision: Any Bears RB -- Sit. There just doesn't seem to be any consistency here, which makes it impossible to predict which back might be the leader in any given week. It doesn't help that the Bears RB trio combined for just 11.2 PPR points last week. The matchup this week is much better, and if it weren't a three-way, hot-hand committee, I might even be excited about the prospect of starting Khalil Herbert or D'Onta Foreman. But I'd have to be truly desperate to consider it at this point. I might be desperate enough that I have to start Foreman, but that's a deeper Dynasty league -- hopefully your situations aren't quite as dire. Injuries to watch: Marquise Brown (heel) was held out of practice Wednesday, and even if he does play, at this point there's no way you can trust him after leaving two consecutive games early.
| | Cowboys at Dolphins | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETLine: Dolphins -1.5; 51.5 O/UImplied totals: Dolphins 26.5, Cowboys 25 | | The Cowboys are a funny team. This is probably the fifth time they've been featured in a "Game of the Week" type situation, and only one of the previous four matchups has even been close: They've been blown out by the 49ers and Bills, and then they blew out the Eagles ; their five-point loss to the Eagles in Week 9 is the only competitive game in the lot. When they're good, the Cowboys are really, really good, but consistency has been an issue. | | Toughest lineup decision: De'Von Achane -- Start. As a general rule, I think you should probably be starting anyone you are considering from this game. Achane and Jake Ferguson are probably the closest thing to fringe options, and we'll focus on Achane here. The past couple of games have been relative letdowns for Achane, but he's still scored 12.1 and 9.2 PPR points with 12 touches in each game, so I think we're probably just seeing the downside of variance with him. And when the healthy floor for a player is 12 touches and double-digit PPR points, we're talking about a pretty excellent player. The Cowboys have a tough defense, but if they're vulnerable anywhere, it's on the ground, where they just allowed 266 rushing yards to the Bills. I'm expecting a lot of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane to try to take advantage. Injuries to watch: The Dolphins are dealing with a ton of injuries, but the biggest one here is to Tyreek Hill (ankle), who tried to play last week but was ultimately held out after warming up Sunday. His status for this week very much remains in question, though I'm guessing he'll play as of now. | | Patriots at Broncos | | Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETLine: Broncos -6.5; 34.5 O/UImplied totals: Broncos 20.5, Patriots 14 | | This is a pretty depressing Sunday night game. There just aren't a lot of playoff implications and if you're relying on this game to help you make a Fantasy championship, you probably aren't in good shape. | | Toughest lineup decision: Courtland Sutton -- Start. I don't love relying on a touchdown-dependent wide receiver in a game with an over/under this low, especially against a good Patriots defense. But Sutton lives in that same range as Calvin Ridley and Jordan Addison and Drake London, where I don't necessarily love the prospect of starting them, but I can't go entirely away from them. Sutton's got a real red zone role, and has hit enough deep shots recently to be a viable option.Injuries to watch: Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) is the biggest name from either side on the injury report, and he didn't practice Wednesday, a bad sign for his chances of returning. Hunter Henry (knee) also missed Wednesday's session, though that's obviously a less impactful absence, if it comes to pass. | | Raiders at Chiefs | | Monday , 1 p.m. ETLine: Chiefs -10; 41.5 O/UImplied totals: Chiefs 25.75, Raiders 15.75 | | So, we're not buying the Raiders' historic offensive outburst as representative of anything more than the Chargers' ineptitude. That's reasonable. | | Toughest lineup decision: Jakobi Meyers -- Sit. I was going to list Zamir White here as a start, but it sounds like Josh Jacobs is going to be back this week, so that's out the window. There aren't a ton of other fringe options here to consider -- you're starting Jacobs, Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice , with the Chiefs RB situation up in the air -- so let's briefly consider Meyers. He was great in Week 14, in completely unsustainable ways -- he caught a touchdown on one of his two catches, and then threw for another one. He has just one game in his past seven with more than 50 receiving yards, though that did come in the last matchup with the Chiefs, for what it's worth. Meyers is in the WR3/4 discussion, for sure, he just hasn't shown much upside lately. Injuries to watch: The Monday games won't practice officially until Thursday, so we'll have to wait for official injury reports here. However, Andy Reid did say earlier in the week that Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) is expected back from his two-game absence, so that's good news. On the Raiders side, coach Antonio Pierce told reporters Wednesday he would bet on Josh Jacobs being back for this one. | | Giants at Eagles | | Monday, 4:30 p.m. ETLine: Eagles -12; 42.5 O/UImplied totals: Eagles 27.25, Giants 15.25 | | The Eagles are stuck in a bit of a rough patch. If they manage to lose to Tommy DeVito, they're gonna be stomping on the panic button in Philly. | | Toughest lineup decision: Saquon Barkley -- Start . I just hope Barkley gets out of New York before it's too late for one last great season, because he's clearly still a special player. But his situations have been pretty awful for basically his entire career, and it remains the case this season, with his passing game role curtailed for, frankly, no good reason. He hasn't had more than five targets in a game since Week 2, and hasn't even hit that mark in his past three. He's a volume play in the running game, and his team is a 12-point underdog. It's hard to go away from Barkley, but there's an extremely low floor here. Injuries to watch: These two haven't practiced either, but there doesn't seem to be any injuries we're tracking on either side as of Wednesday. | | Ravens at 49ers | | Monday, 8:15 p.m. ETLine: 49ers -5.5; 46.5 O/UImplied totals: 40ers 26, Ravens 20.5 | | That's a really big number for the 49ers to be favored by against this Ravens team. On the other hand, the 49ers haven't lost a game since their bye, including wins over the Eagles by 23 and the Jaguars by 31. They might just be that good. | | Toughest lineup decision: Gus Edwards -- Sit. The loss of Keaton Mitchell may mean a few more carries for Edwards, though that might be tougher to do in a game where the Ravens will need every possession to keep up with the 49ers. But you know the deal with Edwards: Whether he gets eight carries or 18, he needs to find the end zone to feel good about starting him. He very well may score, but I hope you have options with more paths to Fantasy relevance than Edwards' against a very tough defense. Injuries to watch: Again, we won't have injury reports for these two teams until later today, but we'll be watching out for Zay Flowers (foot), primarily. The other key names here seem to be in good shape as of now. | | | | | | | | Eye on College Basketball | | CBS Sports Golazo Network | Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander bring college hoops to your ears, covering the biggest topics from around the sport.
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