| | | | Thursday, July 11, 2024 | | Wednesday is rankings update day around here, and it's a whole-day process. We're moving dozens of players across eight different positions in both H2H and Roto leagues, so if you're ever looking for the latest from Frank Stampfl, Scott White, and myself, always make sure to check in here around mid-week. | | Scott wrote about the biggest risers and fallers in his rankings highlighting Brooks Lee and Jose Miranda, among others. And I've got my updated Trade Values Chart right here for you, covering both H2H points and Roto leagues here. But, before we get to the rest of today's newsletter recapping Wednesday's action, here's a quick list of the biggest movers at each position in my rankings: | | C: Ben Rice, C11⬆️1B: Vladimir Guerrero, 1B4⬆️2B: Xander Bogaerts, 2B12⬆️3B: Mark Vientos, 3B17⬆️SS: Anthony Volpe , SS16⬇️OF: Jarren Duran, OF10⬆️SP: Jared Jones, SP43⬇️RP: Craig Kimbrel, RP15 ⬆️ | | We'll go more in-depth on the biggest rankings risers and fallers in Friday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, so make sure you're subscribed here on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. And now, here's what you need to know from Wednesday's action around MLB: | | | | Wednesday's waiver targets | | | | Xander Bogaerts, SS, Padres (80%) – I was surprised to see Bogaerts' roster rate drop as far as it has, though I can't say it's totally surprising – there are an awful lot of players on the IL right now, and hanging on to one who was hitting just .219/.265/.316 before his shoulder injury is tough to justify. But I remain pretty optimistic that he's going to be at least fantasy-relevant when he comes back – he had a .313 xwOBA before the injury, and has been one of the most consistent overperformers of that metric in the league. Bogaerts' dual eligibility at the middle infield positions means you should have a spot in your lineup for him somewhere when he gets back this weekend. | | Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets (71%) – What's the hold-up here, everyone? Vientos has been hitting since the day he got recalled in mid-May, and really hasn't let up. He went 2 for 3 with a pair of doubles, a run, and an RBI Wednesday against the Nationals, and is now hitting .293/.346/.551 over 47 games. His underlying numbers don't quite back it up, but they don't paint the picture of a fraud, either – he has a .271 expected average and .514 expected slugging percentage, which would still make for an impact bat. Vientos should be rostered in all formats. I didn't quite move Vientos up into my top 12 in my latest rankings update, but it wouldn't take much to get him up to, say, 14th ahead of Nolan Arenaod. In a shallow league, I might even make that swap right now. | | Jeff Hoffman, RP, Phillies (41%) – Hoffman has been the Phillies' best reliever all season, and they're starting to treat him like the closer, as he has recorded four of the team's past five saves, with Jose Alvarado working the eighth in two of them. That does include Wednesday, when Alvarado came in to face the 3-4-5 hitters for the Dodgers , though it's worth noting that he gave up a run on two hits. I don't expect Hoffman to get just all of the saves for the Phillies the rest of the way, but I'd guess it'll be close to 50-50, making Hoffman must-roster in categories leagues, at least. | | Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals (38%) – Injuries have been a real problem for Nootbaar, both this season and in seasons past, but I do feel pretty good about having him in my lineup whenever he's healthy. He was excellent in May, hitting .275/.370/.475 in 92 plate appearances, and he hit his first homer in three games since coming off the IL Wednesday while starting both ends of the Cardinals doubleheader. Nootbaar is one of those players who is probably a bit better in a points league thanks to his excellent plate discipline, which is tough because points leagues tend to be a little shallower. But there's still plenty to like about him in any Fantasy format, with 21 homers and 14 steals in 161 games since the start of last season. He just has to stay on the field. | | Matt Wallner, OF, Twins (8%) – It's not exactly news that Wallner can hit for power, but it was still good to see him putting it into action over the past couple of days, as he homered in consecutive days Tuesday and Wednesday. Power comes easy for Wallner, but he needs to make consistent contact, and it's way too early to say if he's equipped to do that after his latest cycle through the minors – though, for what it's worth, it's also nice to see just three strikeouts in his first 14 trips to the plate since returning. Anything below a 30% strikeout rate would probably make Wallner Fantasy relevant, so that's a good start. | | Tobias Myers, SP, Brewers (61%) – I've been pretty dismissive of Myers, but after another terrific start Wednesday against the Pirates – his second with eight shutout innings since the start of June! – I figure maybe it's time to see if there's something I'm missing here. And, unfortunately, I just don't see very much to get excited about in Myers' profile. He has good control, sitting at a 6.9% walk rate, though that's not so good that he's an outlier – among qualifiers, it's tied for 33rd out of 68. His 21.5% strikeout rate is tied with Mitch Keller for 46th among qualifiers, and his 41.2% flyball rate is the 22nd-highest among qualifiers. Myers isn't limiting homers at an especially good rate, and his quality-of-contact metrics are average or below pretty much everywhere. I want to find some reason to believe in his now-3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but I just can't find it. Add in Myers' dreadful minor-league track record – 5.67 career ERA in 155.2 innings at Triple-A – and it just feels like he's going to do more harm than good moving forward. | | | | News and Notes | | An MRI on Zack Wheeler's back revealed no structural damage. It's uncertain whether he'll make his next start Sunday, with Rob Thomson telling reports, "We're going to be very cautious with him. We'll know Thursday." Wheeler could still make his scheduled start Sunday. | | Yordan Alvarez was removed Wednesday due to right hip tightness. | | Bryce Harper was out of the lineup Wednesday with a bruised glove hand. He was hit by a line drive on Tuesday. | | Bobby Miller was optioned to the minors. The team didn't specifically say that Miller would go to Triple-A, so it's possible he's going to the Dodgers' facility to work on his mechanics. My read is that it's an attempt to get Miller some extra work and try to figure out what's gone wrong for him since his return from a shoulder injury. I would prefer to keep Miller stashed for the upside, but I understand if you can't afford it. | | Bo Bichette was removed Wednesday due to right calf soreness. It's been a lingering issue and makes it hard to believe he's going to bust out of this extended slump. | | Cody Bellinger left after getting hit in the hand by a 97 MPH sinker. | | Matt McLain has started swinging a bat and is hoping to begin a rehab assignment August 12. He's going to need extended rehab, so we're likely looking at late August or even early September. That makes it tough for McLain to truly make an impact, but in Roto leagues, he still could. | | Giancarlo Stanton could skip a rehab assignment and return from the IL shortly after the All-Star break. He's out with a strained left hamstring. | | Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts said Walker Buehler continues to work on his mechanics. Roberts added: "I can say there's progress ... but I really can't speak intelligently about what that progress is. I really can't." I have no idea what to expect from Buehler whenever he returns to the team. | | T.J. Friedl is trending toward a return from the IL in 7-10 days after the All-Star break. He is 59% rostered if you're looking for an OF to stash. | | Jeffrey Springs completed four innings for the second consecutive rehab start on Tuesday. He allowed three runs (two earned) with two strikeouts. He is 50% rostered and remains a solid stash. | | Yimi Garcia has had his rehab appearance delayed two days in a row due to neck stiffness. Hopefully, it's a relatively minor setback here. | | Gabriel Moreno w was scratched from the lineup due to lower-back tightness. | | Luis Campusano has started just once in five games since returning from the IL. If that trend continues, Campusano will be pretty hard to roster, even in two-catcher leagues. | | The Rays plan to bring Drew Rasmussen back as a reliever this season, which makes it very unlikely he'll make much of an impact at all for Fantasy. | | Reed Garrett was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation. | | | | Tuesday's standouts | | Pablo Lopez, Twins @CHW: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Oh, when Lopez went down 2-0 in the first two innings against the White Sox Wednesday, I was cringing. I've been consistent in my belief in Lopez amid his struggles, and I really didn't want to have to do the, "Here's why he's fine!" thing again after another poor start. So, while this wasn't a great start, it wasn't an especially concerning one – you'd like to see more efficiency, but he generated 18 swinging strikes on 90 pitches and managed hard contact well enough. He's in for a big second half. | | Framber Valdez, Astros vs. MIA: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Valdez went with a curveball-forward approach in this one, and the Marlins just had no shot. He generated 10 whiffs on 21 swings with the curve, but the most interesting thing might have been the 13 sliders, a season-high, which generated five whiffs. Valdez has gone away from the pitch in recent years despite excellent results, and his 3.3% usage rate entering this start could explain at least some of why his strikeout rate was down to a career-low 19% entering this start. If he's rediscovered that pitch, that could be big. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs @BAL: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – It's been a tough stretch for Imanaga, so he needed this one against a tough matchup. He didn't really change much for this one, throwing his four-seamer and splitter a combined 89% of the time and generating all 12 of his whiffs with those two pitches, so this one was probably more about execution than anything else. Interestingly, his splitter was thrown with significantly more spin than usual, leading to less drop. The pitch generated nine whiffs, but also a 93.5 mph average exit velocity and .500 xwOBA on seven balls in play , so if that was a conscious change, I'm not sure it was one we want to see moving forward. | | Christopher Sanchez, Phillies vs. LAD: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – I don't have much to say here on Sanchez, except that this was an excellent bounce-back start against one of the toughest matchups in the game. He might just be the new Framber Valdez. | | Zach Eflin , Rays vs. NYY: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – This was also a welcome bounce-back showing from Eflin, though I remain annoyed that he still isn't throwing his curveball as much as he did last year. He threw it 18% of the time, right in line with his season average, which means he remains down from last year's 26% rate. It wasn't great today, but overall remains his best swing-and-miss pitch, and the drop in usage seems like the likeliest explanation for why his strikeout rate is down from 26.5% to a very poor 18.7% rate. His 3.36 xERA (entering today) suggests that he can still be a very good pitcher, but the path would be easier if he got strikeouts more consistently. | | Michael King , Padres vs. SEA: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – I'll admit, I gave up on King way too soon. I was extremely skeptical of him coming into the season, and so when he came out with poor command and tons of homers early in the season, I was pretty much out. But King deserves a lot of credit for how he's turned his season around, and what's interesting is that it hasn't really come with a dramatic change in his pitch selection – fewer four-seamers and more sinkers than in April being the main difference. Neither of King's fastballs is a great pitch, but they're both decent enough with his changeup and sweeper acting as really good putaway pitches. He has his ERA down to 3.41 and has thrown at least six innings in three of his past four starts, too. | | Nick Pivetta, Red Sox vs. OAK: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – The thing is … this is who Nick Pivetta has always been. Tons of strikeouts, but enough hard contact that, outside of a few months last season, we've never really felt like we can trust him. He allowed 16 batted balls with an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph … against the Athletics. There will surely be stretches in the future where Pivetta limits the damage and looks like an ace – he did it in his last start before this one! – and he'll be useful on the whole. But with an ERA around 4.00, he'll give back a lot of what he does so well. | | Gavin Stone , Dodgers @PHI: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – I started buying into Stone more when he started putting together bigger strikeout totals in June, but the start of July has been a big step back. In two starts since his complete-game shutout to close out June, Stone has just three strikeouts in each, with eight runs allowed in 7.2 innings of work. What's weird is, Stone generated just six swings and misses despite a significant uptick in velocity, as he was up 1.4-2.0 mph on pretty much everything Wednesday. I still think he's more like a high-3.00s ERA pitcher than the borderline ace we saw for the first three months, and this might just be what the regression looks like for Stone. | | Reese Olson, Tigers vs. CLE: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – One of the reasons I tabbed Olson as a second-half breakout candidate is because of the recent uptick in strikeouts, so it was disappointing to see him regress Wednesday. Now, the Guardians are one of the toughest teams to strike out in the majors, and Olson did still get six whiffs with his slider and four with his changeup, so I'm not too concerned about it overall. There remains both a solid floor – which he demonstrated here – and a high ceiling if he can leverage the slider/change combo to generate more whiffs. | | Bryce Miller, Mariners @SD: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – Even the good starts are kind of disheartening for Miller these days. The results were good if you started him, and in fairness, the Padres are the toughest team to strikeout this season, so that context is important. But even still, it goes without saying that one strikeout over six innings isn't going to get it done. Miller has been pitching better lately, but I still find him pretty underwhelming on the whole, and I think this is the right time to try shopping him around. I prefer Olson the rest of the way. | | Michael Kopech, RP, Twins – Want a sense of how hard it is to play in the majors right now? Watch Kopech's immaculate inning Wednesday, and then remember that he's, like, the 90th-best reliever in baseball right now. He's pumping easy 100 mph fastballs and low-90s cutters and he is, somehow, pretty mediocre. | | | | | | | | WNBA | | SailGP | A matchup between the Sparks and the Wings comes to your screen this Saturday at 3;30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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