| | | | Friday, September 13, 2024 | | Over here at Fantasy Baseball Today, we're trying to stay focused on the here and now to help you get to your and win your Fantasy championships, but I also know plenty of you out there don't have much to play for. I appreciate you reading if that's the case, and so before we get to a recap of Thursday's action from around MLB, I want to turn my attention to 2025 for a little while. Scott White already did that with his list of 20 bold predictions for 2025, which you should check out here -- because, hey, Scott nailed Tarik Skubal being the 2024 Al Cy Young Award winner in last year's version of the column. | | For me, I've started to give my way-too-early rankings for 2025 a look. Over the past couple of days, I've been going through the infield positions to get some preliminary rankings up to date, and it's a tough process, mostly because it's not quite possible to know who, exactly, will be eligible at which positions right now. For instance, we know Mookie Betts will be eligible at shortstop, as he played 65 games there, well clear of the 20 needed to retain eligibility. At second base, it'll be a very close call, with 17 appearances there, though none since mid-August. | | At this point, I'm not including Betts in my second base rankings for 2025, and he's one of several big-name, current second basemen who aren't likely to be eligible there in 2025. There are also some pretty significant names at third base who won't be eligible there next season, which means those two could be the clear weak points of the infield. | | I'm not done with my rankings for the infield yet, and I haven't even started on the outfield and pitcher positions, but I wanted to highlight a few interesting preliminary player rankings for you this week. Next week, I'll do the same for outfielder and pitcher rankings, and, of course, all of this is very much still malleable; we probably won't finalize any rankings for 2025, even way too early ones, until sometime after the season ends. | | And they'll change a ton between then and next year's draft season. But for now, here's a look at the most interesting or notable players at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop from my preliminary runs: | | | | Five surprises from my first attempt at 2025 rankings | | | | J.T. Realmuto – No. 8 catcher | | Realmuto has attempted one steal since coming back from his knee surgery, and if that just isn't going to be part of his game, this might end up being too optimistic, even if it's the lowest he's ranked in nearly a decade. However, he has remained a pretty productive player despite that, hitting .276/.343/.449 since coming back from the injury, with a 20-homer, 90-RBI pace. We'll see how he closes out the season after coming back from a setback with his knee Friday, but at this point, I just can't bring myself to move the likes of Willson Contreras, Austin Wells, or Francisco Alvarez ahead of him. Realmuto is no longer a true difference-maker at the position, but I think he's still a solid starter. | | Vinnie Pasquantino – No. 9 first baseman | | As Scott noted earlier in the week, Pasquantino was one of the biggest risers in the second half before his season-ending thumb injury, mostly because he just started playing up to expectations. Pasquantino's solid contact skills and plus raw power have long made him someone we expected to be a dominant hitter, but whether because of just bad luck or his big home park, he just wasn't living up to what we knew he could be capable of. But Pasquantino hit .296/.325/.497 after the All-Star break with a 34-homer, 149-RBI pace after the break, and while I do think the Royals are a prime candidate for some regression in 2025, Pasquantino seems like a solid choice as your primary first baseman – and one who might still have a bit of breakout potential. | | | | Luis Garcia – No. 6 second baseman | | To a certain extent, this is a reflection of the looming weakness of the position, which will probably be losing Mookie Betts, Xavier Edwards, Spencer Steer, Luis Arraez, and Tyler Fitzgerald, among others who are currently eligible. Garcia is having a solid season, with 15 homers and 21 steals, but he also has just 114 combined runs and RBI, and it's not clear the Nationals view him as an everyday player at this point. His underlying numbers largely back up what he's done this season, but he's also probably a middle infielder in most leagues in an ideal world. But when guys like Brandon Lowe, Brice Turang, Nico Hoerner, and Bryson Stott still look like top-12 second basemen, I'll bet on Garcia, who does at least have the strongest all-around skill set of that group. | | Eugenio Suarez – No. 12 third baseman | | I genuinely don't know what to do with Suarez at this point, but here's something pretty shocking: He is a top-40 player in all of Fantasy for the entire season right now. Just a few spots in the overall rankings behind Rafael Devers . That's stunning, but when you look at the overall numbers, it actually makes sense – he's tied for sixth among 3B in runs, is fifth in homers, and is fourth in RBI, with a not-totally-harmful .256 batting average. He's cut his strikeout rate to 26.3%, his best mark since 2018, without sacrificing quality of contact, which explains the big bounceback. But it's almost entirely based on his success since July 1 – prior to that, he was hitting just .196/.279/.312 and looked like a complete afterthought for Fantasy. The floor is still incredibly low here, and I'll admit I just don't quite know how to balance that, so I'll just stick him here for now. | | Xavier Edwards – No. 12 shortstop | | I'll grant that this might just be too aggressive a ranking for a guy with a two-month sample of success at the MLB level, and I'd be a lot more confident with ranking him aggressively if it looked like he was going to retain second base eligibility. That being said, we are talking about a former top prospect who hit .304/.380/.411 in his Triple-A career, so the idea that he might be a legitimate standout in batting average (in addition to speed) seems pretty realistic to me. He has just a 16.2% strikeout rate this season and a 73-steal pace in the majors, and I'm comfortable taking the flier on the upside there over the more boring names who make up the next tier at shortstop. | | | | News and Notes | | Corey Seager was diagnosed with a sports hernia and will have season-ending surgery Friday. If you remember, Seager had surgery for a sports hernia back in late January, which forced him to miss most of spring training. That was a sports hernia on the left side, and this one is on his right side. He should be fine for spring training, but it's just another thing to add to Seager's lengthy injury ledger. When healthy, he's one of the best hitters in baseball, but you can't draft him at face value when he has played more than 120 games just once in his past four seasons. | | Tarik Skubal was hit on his glove hand with a comebacker, though he stayed in to finish his start, and X-rays taken after the start came back negative, so hopefully, he won't have to miss any time. | | Jose Altuve was out of the lineup Thursday with that right side discomfort he suffered on Wednesday. | | Kyle Tucker is expected to return to the outfield on Friday. All four of his starts have come at DH so far. Tucker actually picked up his first multi-hit game Thursday since returning, going 2-4 with a double. | | Willson Contreras will be re-evaluated Monday as the Cardinals plan out his potential return. He's on the IL with a fractured right middle finger. | | Byron Buxton was reinstated from the IL and plans to be in the lineup Friday. | | Xavier Edwards was not in the lineup Thursday for the third day in a row. Perhaps he's not completely healthy after going on the IL with a back injury? He still came off the bench, going 2-2 with a steal. | | Tyler Fitzgerald left Thursday with lower back tightness. | | Chas McCormick was placed on the IL with a fractured right hand. | | Alex Cobb was placed on the IL due to a blister on his right hand. | | Travis d'Arnaud was reinstated from the paternity list. | | Wednesday's standouts | | Kumar Rocker, Rangers @SEA: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Yeah, that's pretty much what I expected. Rocker was electric, generating 17 whiffs on 74 pitches, including a whopping 13 with his curveball – and a quick note on that: Rocker says it's a curveball, so I'm gonna call it a curveball, even though BaseballSavant.com (and most scouting reports) call it a slider. That immediately looks like one of the best pitches in baseball, a huge breaker he showed the ability to manipulate across both planes of movement. His fastball doesn't have an ideal movement profile, but like Paul Skenes , he releases it from a low arm slot, generates plenty of extension, and sits in the high 90s with it, so I'm not sure the movement profile matters that much. Rocker still has a lot to prove in terms of his ability to stay healthy, his ability to repeat his mechanics, and his ability to actually get major-league hitters out. But he's been dominant since coming back from Tommy John surgery and continued that in his first taste of the big leagues. I'd expect him to remain pretty limited the rest of the way, but if you're looking to make up ground in strikeouts late, he can clearly help with that. | | Tarik Skual, Tigers vs. COL: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Skubal is so good – and the Rockies generally so terrible away from Coors Field – that this actually qualifies as a mildly disappointing showing from him. He's going to win the AL Cy Young and is almost certain to be my No. 1 pitcher for 2025 when I get around to ranking them. | | Framber Valdez, Astros vs. OAK: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I'm going to give serious consideration to Valdez as a top-12 pitcher for 2025, which really shouldn't be a hot take. He was SP8 this season entering this start, and I would probably take him ahead of Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, and Shota Imanaga for next season, at least. There are some names below him I'll rank above him, so he may not quite get to the top 12, but Valdez has a 32.1% strikeout rate over his past 11 starts since featuring his curveball as his most-used pitch, which is by far the highest rate of any 11-game stretch in Valdez's career to date – he had a stretch in 2023 with a 29% strikeout rate, which he couldn't sustain. Time will tell if Valdez will be able to sustain this level – reasonable people should probably bet against it – but given that it's come with a change in approach, I'm inclined not to write it off entirely. | | Bryce Miller, Mariners vs. TEX: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Here are two statements that might both be true for 2025: Bryce Miller should be the lowest-ranked Mariners starter for Fantasy, and Bryce Miller should be ranked as a top-40 starter for Fantasy. I'm not quite sure whether I prefer Miller or Bryan Woo at this point, nor whether both will actually be in that top 40, but I think both are possible. All of a sudden, Miller has a legitimate eight-pitch arsenal, and he now has a 2.16 ERA since the All-Star break, with 60 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He still doesn't consistently garner many whiffs on his non-fastballs – just one Thursday – and he's not quite on Woo's level as either a control pitcher or a suppressor of hard contact. But he's constantly tinkering, which makes me inclined to bet on him figuring out a way to remain effective, especially in a great home park with what should be a better supporting cast in 2025. | | Sonny Gray , Cardinals vs. CIN: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Gray tends to go through periods where his ERA ends up inflated, usually due to home runs, but he's also one of those guys I tend to think you can and should just set and forget in your lineup the whole season because he always tends to figure it out. He has three quality starts in a row after this one and has a 3.75 ERA for the season, with 10.9 K/9. Sure, if you can avoid the blowups, his ERA would be even more useful, but I think when you try to play that game, you're just as likely to end up missing some really useful starts, too. | | Ryan Pepiot, Rays @OAK: 2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – It seems the Rays are trying to manage Pepiot's innings, as he was pulled without any sign of injury that I saw in this one. He has thrown 115 innings this season after just 64.2 last season, and it's not like the Rays have a ton to play for down the stretch, so I'm worried this is going to be a trend. I wouldn't drop him just yet, but another start where they clearly have him on a low pitch limit would be enough to do it. | | Frankie Monts, Brewers @SF: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Montas has been solid since joining the Brewers, but I'm just not sure how much we should care, especially with a matchup against the Phillies on the way next week. He has a 3.40 ERA since joining the Brewers, with 50 strikeouts in 45 innings of work, but it hasn't come with an obvious chance in approach that is worth buying into – he's traded some four-seamers for sinkers, but I'm not sure that's actually an approach I want to bet on, given that the sinker hasn't exactly been a significantly better pitch. I think Montas has just gotten hot at a good time for the Brewers, but he remains a streamer for Fantasy and one I don't want to trust against the Phillies. | | Nestor Cortes, Yankees vs. BOS: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Cortes wasn't happy about being taken out of the rotation for his last turn, and he backed up his talk with an excellent performance. And he's mostly been pretty good lately, with a 3.03 ERA since the start of August. The problem is, it's not clear what the Yankees rotation plans are moving forward, nor whether Cortes might be moved to the bullpen again. Given that, it's awfully hard to say whether I would start him next week since I don't even know what the matchup will be. | | Mitch Spence, Athletics @OAK: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – Spence isn't entirely without merit – he has good control and generates a bunch of groundballs, which means that, though he doesn't miss bats, the contact he does give up tends to culminate in mostly harmless singles. That's worked out well for him lately, as he has a 3.67 ERA in the second half, though his 1.39 WHIP and middling strikeout numbers make him hard to get excited about. His schedule to close out the season sees him lined up against the Cubs , Rangers, and Mariners, and those are decent enough matchups that I don't mind streaming Spence if I don't have more attractive options. | | Ryan Feltner, Rockies @DET: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – For the most part, I don't think Feltner really matters, but I do just want to say that I actually do think he's kind of an interesting talent if he were able to get away from the Rockies. His fastball is solid, and his changeup is even better than that. In a different environment, I could see him being a pretty useful Fantasy option – and I will note he has a 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP away from Coors Field this season. Maybe the Rockies will trade him in the offseason, and he can emerge as a viable Fantasy sleeper. | | | | | | | | NFL | | Big Ten on CBS | It's a national doubleheader this Sunday along with an exclusive look at the Tulsa King Season 2 Official Trailer at halftime of the 4:25 ET games. Watch your local games live this Sunday at 1 ET and 4:25 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | The Fighting Irish and the Boilermakers go head-to-head this Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
| | | | |
|
|
