Grim new chapter

The 34 felony counts of which Donald Trump was convicted Thursday arguably present a new, grim chapter in the 248-year history of America. Trump, 77, was found guilty of falsifying business records to conceal a hush-money payment made to a porn star, all as part of a scheme to hide salacious details from voters in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election. The twice-impeached Republican’s new status as a convicted felon may present an unpredictable variable in his bid to unseat President Joe Biden, but the increasingly tribal nature of American politics could make it less than meaningful come November, even if he’s sentenced to prison come July. Trump remains the GOP’s certain nominee with what currently looks like an even chance of regaining the White House. Being a felon won’t prevent that, and in Washington, many of his fellow Republicans have suddenly turned on the criminal justice system, calling the verdict political. Like them, there are also a few right-leaning billionaires who professed their continued faith in Trump regardless of his criminal status. “This verdict will have less thanzero impact on my support,” said Omeed Malik, president of 1789 Capital.

The prosecution was a complex case to make under New York state law, but Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his assistants ultimately fed crow to talking heads who doubted them. Moreover, Bragg’s team had to contend with the spectacle of calling witnesses including Stormy Daniels, the porn star who Trump paid off to hide a 2006 affair, mustachioed tabloid editor David Pecker and jilted personal lawyer and ex-convict Michael Cohen. Nevertheless, the jury convicted Trump in 10 hours. He could be sentenced to as many as four years in prison, but as a first-time offender, there is a significant chance he will avoid time behind bars in this case. Besides, he is certain to appeal and stay out of prison while doing so. And if he wins the election in November, all bets are off.

But there are three more cases against him, dealing with grave allegations of national security and the subversion of the American democratic system, conviction in any of which could land Trump in prison for more than a decade. US Special Counsel Jack Smith has obtained indictments alleging Trump mishandled and hid top secret documents implicating America’s national defenses and led an effort to stay in power despite losing the 2020 election to Biden (a state prosecution in Georgia is related to the latter). However, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely—for a whole host of reasons—that those trials will not conclude, or perhaps even begin, before the election. Everything about these four prosecutions is unprecedented in the nation’s history—what comes of them is anyone’s guess. “Whatever one’s view of this verdict, these are incredibly grim signs for American politics,” Bloomberg’s editors wrote. Timothy O’Brien added however that “Trump did put his finger on an important thing—the real verdict is gonna be Nov. 5.”

Three big countries, India, Mexico and South Africa, are holding elections: Here are four possible scenarios as India ends its marathon vote. Mexico looks set to be led for the first time by a woman, and there are at least 10 challenges she will face as president. In South Africa, what happens if the African National Congress—in power since 1994—is forced to share power?

Israel pushed into the center of Rafah in its effort to kill more members of Hamas. It did so just days after killing at least 45 people in an overcrowded tent city that was supposed to be a safe zone. The US, despite months of warnings to Tel Aviv not to carry out the operation in the southern Gaza city because of the danger to civilians, nevertheless said the strike didn’t cross any red lines that would cause Biden to freeze additional arms shipments. But Biden’s insistence that his embrace of Israel has resulted in the least bad outcome in Gaza is coming under increasing scrutiny. On the ground, the tripwire tensions are evident: an Egyptian border guard was killed in a firefight with Israeli soldiers. And despite the pleas from the outside world and from families of Israeli hostages to end the war, Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said the fighting would continue at least for seven more months. Biden meanwhile wants a peace deal now.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.2% in April, the smallest gain of the year. The moderation helps support the latest expectations for an eventual reduction in interest rates, as does a slowdown in inflation-adjusted consumer spending and wage growth, the primary fuel for demand. As the US and global economies continue to try and stabilize from the twin shocks of the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, higher rates meant to stem inflation have contributed to making the American dream of affordable homeownership unattainable for longer. In some Texas and Florida cities, foreclosures are rising, suggesting early signs of distress in the once booming housing market. And a small but mostly affluent group of Americans—those who bought houses since 2019 with adjustable rate mortgages—are about to see their payments skyrocket.

Ukraine’s allies, including America, shifted ground and said their weapons can now be used for limited strikes on Russian territory where attacks on Ukraine originate. Russian advances around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, increased urgency for the US and Europe to set aside concerns about escalation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave first hints of the change during a visit this week to Moldova, a European Union member candidate that's under Russian pressure. Military experts have said that months of delays by Republican members of Congress on billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine helped create an opening for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin’s forces, which have been gaining ground.

YouTube Chief Executive Officer Neal Mohan is big on Shorts: Videos that is. He’s bet big on them, and that means subjecting himself to silly scenes with creators in a bid to demonstrate the power of the 60-second format. On this week’s episode of The Circuit with Emily Chang, Mohan discusses plans to make the video streaming platform even bigger.

As the presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador ends, he leaves Mexico’s military the largest and most powerful the country has ever seen. He’s expanded its mandate to include key infrastructure projects such as airports and railways, which the military administers with little or no transparency. But critics say its new role has come at a grim price amid record-high homicides and the growing threat to civil liberties. The Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary Why Mexico Is Militarizing, explores why Mexicans are wondering if public works are coming at the expense of public safety—and maybe civil rights.

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