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Wednesday, February 15, 2023
Happy Wednesday, everyone. John Breech has been busy churning out emergency pods regarding NFL head-coaching news (more on that below), so he's taking a breather today while I, Cody Benjamin, guide you through all the latest from around football.
This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We've got coaching grades, a forecast of top offseason quarterback targets and more:
1. Today's show: Colts, Cardinals hire new head coaches
The last two vacancies of the 2023 head-coaching cycle were filled this week, so Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson, John Breech and Tyler Sullivan had plenty to discuss in a pair of emergency reaction podcasts. The big news to break down:
  • Cardinals hire Jonathan Gannon: The Eagles' defensive coordinator of the last two years, Gannon's first task will be carving out a plan for Kyler Murray's future in Arizona. "Usually defensive coaches are more disciplinarian," Breech says, "so you're (potentially) already set up to clash with the quarterback you're locked into."
  • Colts hire Shane Steichen: Another ex-Eagles coordinator, Steichen spent the last two seasons as Nick Sirianni's primary play-caller. His first job will be assisting the front office in determining a long-term solution at QB. Sully likes Steichen's pedigree of QB development, suggesting there's real reason for hope under center here.
Catch the full episode (and subscribe for daily NFL talk) right here.
2. Grading coaching hires: Broncos get 'A,' Colts get solid 'B'
With all head-coaching jobs filled, Tyler Sullivan broke down each hire and assigned early grades for each. He doesn't believe any of them are blatant misfires, with a C+ serving as the lowest verdict of the group. But he definitely likes some more than others. Here are some snippets from Sully's assessment:
  • Sean Payton to Broncos (A): If Payton can change the culture at Mile High and help Russell Wilson rekindle the elite play we once saw in Seattle, this will be a worthwhile investment by the Broncos.
  • DeMeco Ryans to Texans (A):  He just helped lead one of the best defenses in the NFL in San Francisco and has widely been tapped as the next great coach to come out of the Shanahan tree.  
  • Shane Steichen to Colts (B): Steichen, who is now the youngest head coach in the franchise's history, has experience not only developing young quarterbacks but developing them to an elite level.
  • Frank Reich to Panthers (B): Even with all the turmoil at the game's most important position, he largely kept Indy afloat with a 40-33-1 record. He is capable of leading a winning program.
  • Jonathan Gannon to Cardinals (C+): The major question is the offense. The chemistry between Gannon and his new QB could be the linchpin that determines if this hire is successful.
3. Where Colts will turn at QB: Ranking seven options for Steichen
Now that Indy has its new head coach, it's time for the team to find a new signal-caller (again). GM Chris Ballard has pledged to do "whatever it takes" to secure the Colts' top target, particularly if it's a coveted draft prospect. But which QBs will actually be on their big board, both in the veteran and rookie market? We ranked seven logical candidates to take over under center in 2023. Here's our No. 1 name, with some reasoning:
1. Bryce Young (Alabama)
When Ballard speaks of doing "whatever it takes" to get their top QB target, it's hard to think Young wouldn't be part of the equation. He lacks the standard NFL size at the position (6-0, 195), but Steichen is coming off a Super Bowl in which two of his best players were Jalen Hurts (6-1) and  DeVonta Smith, the notoriously slender Alabama product. Young is also coming out of the same Crimson Tide program that helped solidify Hurts' unusual poise for such a young player. Tools-wise, he's basically the total package, doing everything well as an instinctual, crunch-time distributor. Unless another team falls for C.J. Stroud's size up top, pushing Young past the No. 1 or No. 2 pick, he'd almost certainly require a trade up. But what better time for the Colts to be bold, ushering in a program centerpiece alongside their new coach?
4. Raiders officially cut Derek Carr, plus best fits for QB
Welp, the relationship is over for real: Almost two months after benching him for the final games of the 2022 season, the Raiders have officially released their longtime starter. The transaction follows Carr's refusal to accept a trade, and confirms the two sides will go their separate ways after nine seasons together. Now Carr is free to sign with any interested club, and he's got a month of a head start on the 2023 free agency market. Which teams stand out as best fits for the Pro Bowler? Here's our top three:
3. Buccaneers: They looked old, slow and injured for much of 2022, but that doesn't mean they're lacking in playoff-caliber talent: You can do a lot worse than Leonard FournetteRachaad WhiteMike EvansChris Godwin and Russell Gage at the skill spots, with the Ryan Jensen-anchored line also likely to get healthier. In their division (and sunshine!), Carr could easily talk himself into a Tampa Bay trip.
2. Jets: An underrated factor here may be the New York market: Does Carr, who's enjoyed relative anonymity among longtime QBs, want the frenzy of the Big Apple while teaming up with failed ex-Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett, the new OC? Still, everything else is set up for a playoff run: The backfield is stocked, the WR room is young and emergent and Robert Saleh's "D" is finally coming into its own. Hackett, by the way, has traditionally valued the kind of quick-strike game Carr has enjoyed.
1. Panthers: Carolina might -- and probably should -- prefer to take a longer view here, with new coach Frank Reich surely sick of "quick fixes" under center. But for Carr, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better spot. Reich is a known QB whisperer despite juggling countless starters in recent years. He's probably the best coach in their division already. And then there's the rest of the roster, which boasts long-term stars at premium positions, from D.J. Moore (WR) to  Brian Burns (DE) to Jaycee Horn (CB).
5. QB contract updates: Hurts mum, Jackson consults with Ravens
Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are among the big-name QBs eligible for lucrative extensions this offseason. But neither playmaker is in a hurry to talk money, at least publicly. Asked Tuesday whether he's engaged in talks on a new deal with the Eagles fresh off Super Bowl LVII, Hurts declined to address the matter, telling reporters he's "focused on ... winning championships," and will leave contract discussions for another day. Jackson, meanwhile, is still headed for free agency after failed long-term negotiations, but apparently had a sizable voice in the Ravens' offensive coordinator search, which led to Todd Monken's hiring.
6. Early MVP odds: Mahomes favorite to win back-to-back awards
Aaron Rodgers won consecutive MVP awards from 2020-2021. Now Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to do the same thing. Fresh off his second career MVP honor, Mahomes is already projected to win next year's top accolade, per Caesars Sportsbook. Here's a look at other early candidates for the 2023 season:
  • Patrick Mahomes (+650)
  • Joe Burrow (+750)
  • Josh Allen (+750)
  • Jalen Hurts (+1100)
  • Justin Herbert (+1100)
  • Trevor Lawrence (+1500)
  • Aaron Rodgers (+2000)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+2000)
  • Lamar Jackson (+2000)
  • Dak Prescott (+2500)
 
 
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