Global Europe Brief: What Moldova’s twin vote means for its EU future and Russia’s grip

Dear readers, good Sunday morning from Chișinău!

While EU support in the country with fewer than 3 million people is as high as ever, Russian-backed campaigns have focused on demobilising voters.

In today’s edition:

WHAT IS AT STAKE? | Moldovan voters are asked to make two crucial decisions this Sunday: whether to re-elect incumbent, staunchly pro-EU President Maia Sandu and whether the country should anchor its European path in the constitution.

Over the past months, Sandu, a former World Bank president, has led a primarily domestic 'bread-and-butter' campaign with less emphasis on geopolitical tensions in order not to give room to disinformation attempts.

Although both votes are separate, together, they are seen as a choice between a European future or a return to Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The referendum, for which 12 parties support the “YES” option and two the “NO” option, is meant to determine whether accession to the bloc will be added to the country's constitution as a strategic goal.

Sunday's polls are seen as a significant test before the country's parliamentary elections next year, which could prove decisive for the speed of Moldova's EU integration.

WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY? | The latest polls tip Sandu to win in the first round of the presidential polls. But if she does not reach more than 50% of the vote, a run-off will be staged between the two leading candidates on 3 November.

Analysts predict she could face a more difficult second-round runoff against Moscow-friendly Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general who was dismissed by Sandu and is polling at 10%.

Support for the "YES" side in the referendum, meanwhile, is up to 65%, but a minimum turnout of 33% - around 940.000 voters - is needed for the referendum to be considered valid.

While Moldova’s left-leaning parties, which have historically been pro-Russian, still reach around 40% support, they have struggled to command the same sway after Moscow's invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

Moldova's Central Election Commission said people will be able to cast their ballot at 2,221 polling stations, with 1,957 located across the country and 234 installed for Moldovan citizens voting abroad. Voters who live in Transnistria and have Moldovan passports will be able to access 30 polling stations on the Moldovan side of the border, within the perimeter of the security zone.

SPECTRE OF DISINFORMATION | In recent months, Moldovan authorities have flagged an uptick in coordinated disinformation campaigns and vote-buying orchestrated by Russia and its proxies in the country, designed to sway or suppress the vote.

Pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, who has been sanctioned by the West for spearheading the Kremlin's operations in Moldova, has publicly offered money for votes against EU integration.

Earlier this month, Chișinău warned that some €15 million in Russian funds had been distributed directly to around 130,000 Moldovans in a bid to buy their anti-EU votes.

The few elections Shor’s movement has won in the past — such as regional votes in Gagauzia and Orhei — came with accusations of widespread vote-buying.

At the same time, Moldovan officials believe Moscow is behind plans to train hundreds of its citizens in Russia to stage civil unrest in Moldova during or after the elections.

WHY DOES IT MATTER FOR EU? | It’s all about the bigger picture.

As Moldova - and Georgia a week later - head to the polls over two respective weekends with their EU aspirations on the ballot, European officials and diplomats are concerned either of them could slip into Russia’s orbit after these elections.

Georgians will vote next Saturday (26 October) in watershed parliamentary elections, with a first-ever union of all pro-Western opposition forces facing off against the country's Georgian Dream ruling party accused of democratic backsliding and increasingly shifting towards Russia.

Brussels has warned that the vote would be crucial for Tbilisi's path towards EU membership - and Georgia's future seems more uncertain than that of Moldova.
More pro-Russian governments in one or both countries could also encourage Vladimir Putin to repeat his interference playbook in EU member states.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Moldova last week was seen as welcome support by Sandu, but the trip was kept low-key to avoid accusations of election interference, sources said.
The EU's executive has also deliberately moved the presentation of the EU’s enlargement package to after both elections, towards the last week of October, to avoid it being instrumentalised in the polls, according to people familiar with the matter.

ISRAEL TALKS | EU leaders this week reiterated their calls for de-escalation in the Middle East, with some voicing hope the recent killing of Hamas' leader Yahya Sinwar could be an off-ramp for ceasefire talks - and they seemed to converge on the fact that Israel's attitude was becoming "less and less acceptable".

With the EU struggling to address Israel's possible violations of international humanitarian law, next month's foreign ministers' talks could see a discussion of what to do about trade ties with Tel Aviv.

GULF TIES | For the first time, the EU and the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders met this week in Brussels in talks that will be overshadowed by escalating tensions in the Middle East. But while both sides agreed to revive long-stalled trade talks, but disagreements on how to word it prevailed.

Strengthening ties with the Gulf region will be vital in countering the growing Russia-Iran alliance and handling the Middle East crises, the EU's Special Representative for the Gulf region, Luigi Di Maio, told Euractiv ahead of the talks.

IRAN SANCTIONS | EU member states this week also backed a sanctions package against seven high-ranking Iranian officials and seven entities in response to Tehran's transfer of military equipment to Russia.

NATO INVITE I As Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pitched his 'victory' plan to European leaders this week, an invitation to join NATO is emerging as a key ask by Kyiv. However, so far, none of the big key Western countries has publicly thrown its support behind a swift NATO invitation, which is one of the core aspects of Kyiv's pitch.

NATO should not wait with its invitation, and the country's backers should “implement in full what was promised” in terms of aid deliveries, Ukraine's NATO envoy Nataliia Galibarenko told Euractiv.

As Ukraine braces for another harsh winter, the urgency of air defence and ammunition supplies remains critical, but military aid discussions are increasingly taking place out of the spotlight.

G7 GOES DEFENCE I G7 defence ministers doubled down on calls for respect for international law in their inaugural meeting this weekend, a few days before BRICS members meet in Russia.

KUBILIUS' PLANS I The future EU defence commissioner aims to align with NATO on key security priorities, Andrius Kubilius told Euractiv in person this week. Read the full interview here.

HALFWAY THERE I NATO members spent €20 billion in the first half of 2024 on military aid to Ukraine - they are halfway towards meeting their annual target with only three more months to go.

EU-UK TIES | UK's Foreign Secretary David Lammy attended talks with EU counterparts for the first time in two years as London looks to "reset" relations with the bloc after Brexit and potentially sign a bilateral security pact in the near future.

DUAL-USE WOES I In a mid-term evaluation of the EU innovation programme, experts say the European Commission should avoid classifying projects as “dual-use”, as all technologies can now have a military component, and keep Horizon Europe for all non-purely military projects.

INFRASTRUCTURE MOVES | Germany and Norway press NATO allies to divide responsibility for underwater infrastructure protection. Finland and Norway, meanwhile, plan to improve rail and road links between the countries for military use.

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