| No matter who wins the White House, Europeans might need to prepare for a more inward-looking US. When one asks European America-watchers these days, there are currently a few strains of thought for the day after Tuesday. If former Republican US President Donald Trump wins, the more pessimistic pundits seem to be a growing sense that gloves could be off and Europe could look to five years of foreign policy unpredictability across the Atlantic. This could include economic nationalism, high trade tariffs and very pointed debates about security burden-sharing. The more optimistic pundits say there is a chance his second administration might not go in with the bulldozer and try to undo NATO. Still, his peace effort in Ukraine could result in increased efforts to end Russia’s war – with uncertainty about where this would leave Europe’s long-term security. No one can be sure. European diplomats and officials that spoke to Euractiv over the past months emphasised how much of a 'black box' Trump's Republican camp is to them. European trade officials are especially readying measures to hit back if Trump tries to start a trade war with the EU once in office, especially after warnings that Europeans would pay a 'big price' for not buying enough American exports, people familiar with the preparation say. European security officials, meanwhile, find it far more difficult to plan for a permanently less engaged US when it comes to protecting Europe. The EU's recent push on defence investment, tech sovereignty, and securing raw materials is still far from being able to provide a security net, they say. "The reasons for this extraordinary anxiety in Europe have to do with the way in which the election has raised questions about longer-term European futures that will be very difficult to address in the near term," Ian Lesser, president of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, told Euractiv. "To create a much stronger European defence capability is the work of years if not decades – it is not something that can be done overnight, regardless of US policy," he said. With Europeans increasingly looking to ramp up their own competitiveness and, if needed, to walk it alone on security, Lesser said, "In a sense, we are in an inward-looking moment on both sides of the Atlantic." Most pundits see commitments to NATO and Europe’s security remain stable under Harris, despite an increasing shift to the Indo-Pacific, and the White House would keep backing Ukraine but ultimately face some kind of talks to end the war. But even if Harris wins, disengagement could be in the cards, albeit not a very abrupt one. Some on our side of the Atlantic might increasingly harbour the feeling that Europe just is not as important to Washington as it once was. Both the uncoordinated withdrawal from Afghanistan and AUKUS, a tripartite agreement between the US, UK, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific, are widely seen as wake-calls. Washington's ceasefire talks in the Middle East and hesitance in supporting Ukraine to win not only the fight but the war are more recent considerations. Whether Trump or Harris, "regardless of the outcome, if the question is about whether the US are self-absorbed, it is in some sense already self-absorbed," Lesser told Euractiv. "Europe is going to be dealing with a very chaotic and sometimes even dysfunctional America, and it will not be a recipe for easy [transatlantic policy-making]," he said. Part of that would be a question of balance of power between the White House and US Congress, where Republicans currently hold a majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate – both by slim margins. Polls suggest the two parties could switch control of each chamber and, dependent on the margins, potentially paralyse US policymaking in the next years. Not to mention the question of what happens on the day after elections. With the presidential race expected to be extremely close, and if the vote is contested, there could be a lengthy battle ahead. In 2020, it took four days to call the state of Pennsylvania, which delivered enough electoral college votes to clinch Biden’s victory. The actual winner may not be known until a few days up until a fraught few weeks between 5 November and 6 January, traditionally the inauguration of the new president. | 