Glimmer of Hope in Otherwise Gloomy Builder Confidence Numbers

The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)--typically referred to simply as "builder confidence"--is argued to be both an advance indicator and a lagging indicator depending on who is doing the arguing. It was more prescient as a harbinger of better times ahead roughly a decade ago, but most recently, it was a bit late to drop compared to New Home Sales. There's more correlation and more sense of it being an advance indicator when comparing it to something more construction-focused such as Housing Starts. Whether chicken or egg, there's no question that most housing-related metrics have been in increasingly bad shape as 2022 progressed. Builder Confidence is now a sobering example of that, having fallen for 12 straight months to the lowest levels in more than a decade. Those unpleasant distinctions shouldn't surprise anyone working in the housing market right now. So where can we glean value from the data? Granted, it could be an anomaly based on the nice drop in rates over the past 2 months, but there was a component of the confidence data that actually improved: the 6 month outlook. Bottom line: after a year of pain, builders are seeing the road ahead as being a little bit less gloomy.

December 19, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Glimmer of Hope in Otherwise Gloomy Builder Confidence Numbers The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)--typically referred to simply as "builder confidence"--is argued to be both an advance indicator and a lagging indicator depending on who is doing the arguing. ... (read more) MBS Commentary Very Flat Day After Opening Losses Very Flat Day After Opening Losses MBS and Treasuries began the day in moderately-to-sharply weaker territory and didn't move much at all after that. The losses didn't correlate with any other markets (... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start Holiday-Shortened Week As much as it may seem that financial markets are driven by machines and code, human beings are still critical to day to day functioning. This is especially true of the mortgage-specific corners of the financial market. During wint... (read more) Rob Chrisman Credit Reporting, Automation, BI, Marketing Tools; FHA, HUD, VA Changes; Bank Market Share Happy Hanukkah (or Chanukah), which began yesterday. Others are looking ahead to Christmas, with some companies closed Friday the 23rd and some closed Monday the 26th. (The Federal Reserve and the stock market are closed Monday the 26th and then Mond... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.27% +0.10% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.52% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.78% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.50% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.84% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.82% +0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/19 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.52% +0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.54% -0.13 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.42% +0.01 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.08 0.54 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% +0.06 0.42 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.77 -0.64 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.77 -0.64 UMBS 5.5 101.09 -0.48 GNMA 5.0 100.05 -0.34 GNMA 5.5 100.92 -0.38 Pricing as of: 12/19 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5920 +0.1040 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.258 +0.076 5 YR Treasury 3.718 +0.096 7 YR Treasury 3.687 +0.102 10 YR Treasury 3.592 +0.104 30 YR Treasury 3.645 +0.102 Pricing as of: 12/19 5:31PM EST Latest Video Investors moving to cash over worries that Fed will overdo rate hikes, says... The impact of Fed policy on earnings should be clearer by Q1 2023, says Hig... Fmr. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida agrees with Fed on the need for ongoing... The Fed has to remain hawkish in its remarks, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown Around the Web CNBC Homebuilder sentiment drops for the 12th straight month, but a bottom may be near Calculated Risk Blog 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Housing December 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.5% Week-over-week Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors assess monetary policy, economic outlook Eye on Housing The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2021 Data Reuters Fed's Williams says rates could rise more than central bank has priced in Reuters Fed's Daly: No Fed Policymakers See Rate Cuts Next Year Reuters Markets may still be underestimating how high ECB rates have to go Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Continues On A Downward Trend in October 2022 Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board Adopts Rule to Implement LIBOR Replacement in Certain Financial Contracts CNBC 10-year Treasury yield inches higher as investors assess economic outlook

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