| The theory of the deal was that negotiations would begin to agree terms for a permanent truce, which was supposed to start on Sunday. Talks were meant to cover a short-term deal for the return of about 60 remaining hostages – some of whom are dead – as well as the shape of a long-term plan for Gaza’s governance. A second phase would theoretically involve the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory. But those talks have been repeatedly postponed. Instead, Israel has been pushing for an extension to the first stage of the ceasefire and the release of half of the remaining hostages without any significant new concessions in return. Hamas says that it wants to negotiate the second stage as planned. Netanyahu has said that the plan to extend the first phase through Ramadan and Passover was the brainchild of Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East (pictured above with Netanyahu). “They’re framing it as Hamas refusing to accept Witkoff’s suggestion,” Julian said. “But we haven’t heard from Witkoff at all. It’s not impossible that this was something he suggested as a what-if, and Netanyahu is trying to lock him into the idea by making it public.” The supposed Witkoff plan, he noted, is very similar to the proposal that Israel took to discussions in Cairo last week. Why have talks stalled? A key issue has been the stark divide between the two sides on what Gaza’s future governance might look like: Hamas has refused to countenance any proposals that send its officials into exile. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has hardened his line on what negotiations might cover over the course of the first phase, and now says Israel is ready to return to war unless Hamas voluntarily disarms. A comfortable majority of Israelis want a continuation of the ceasefire, opinion polls suggest – but Netanyahu’s reliance on the extreme right to keep his government from collapsing has been a key influence on his approach. They have insisted that any outcome short of “total victory” over Hamas is unacceptable. Hamas sees little advantage in releasing more hostages without an ironclad move to a permanent truce: with every hostage that is freed, it loses more of its leverage over what happens next. Netanyahu has refused to allow Israeli negotiators to enter serious discussions about a second phase. “It is just not something he is politically prepared to do,” Julian said. “Withdrawing Israeli troops from the Philadelphi corridor is something that would threaten to break up his coalition, because the far right would not accept it. Many commentators at the time the deal was initially struck thought this was something that Netanyahu had been pushed into by Trump, and that he would try to bring it down before a second phase began.” It is hard to argue with that analysis today. Where does the ceasefire stand today? It is still just about holding, but has no guardrails to keep it from ending at any time. Yesterday, a stabbing in the Israeli city of Haifa left one dead and several people wounded. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike in central Rafah killed two people and another in Khan Younis wounded several more. Both sides are mobilising in preparation for a return to war: last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas has appointed new commanders and started repurposing unexploded bombs as IEDs. Israeli defence officials told the New York Times that extensive preparations have been made for a new and intense campaign. And over the weekend, US secretary of state Marco Rubio bypassed Congress by using “emergency authorities” to send $4bn in new weapons to Israel. Israel sought to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas as the first phase of the ceasefire expired by stopping the entry of all aid into Gaza. “There are no circumstances under which cutting off food and basic supplies to civilians is legal under the law of war,” Julian said. “And it’s interesting to note that, whereas when Biden was president Israel always denied that it was them holding up aid, Netanyahu now feels free to say quite boldly and clearly that he is cutting off all humanitarian aid to Gaza. It suggests that he feels empowered.” Now, under the so-called “hell plan”, Israel is reportedly preparing to cut off electricity and remaining water supplies, and could also move Palestinians who have returned to the north of Gaza back to the south – paving the way for the potential resumption of full-scale war. Is there any chance that the process will get back on track? It is not impossible that some agreement will be reached on an extension of the first phase, Julian said: “When Hamas turned it down, they said that they objected to ‘this formulation of the extension’, which suggests that they might accept something where they had to release fewer hostages. But they won’t feel they can accept one where their leverage in the form of hostages is halved.” Meanwhile, all of the effective political pressure on Netanyahu is coming from the far right, and that makes the path to the next phase of the ceasefire extremely narrow. Julian pointed to the White House’s move to sanction the international criminal court in an executive order accusing the ICC of baselessly targeting the US and Israel as evidence of how little pressure appears to be coming from Washington. The sanctions put financial and visa restrictions on those involved in investigations of US nationals and US allies. “They are protecting Netanyahu, in a very clear way, from the leading instrument of international justice,” he said. “There is a path to a second phase – but it runs through Washington. And Steve Witkoff has said that phase two has got to happen. So the question is whether Trump’s public declarations that he backs whatever Israel wants to do defines US policy – or if Witkoff has the power to do more.” | 