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| Thursday, January 9, 2025 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I probably don't need to tell you this, but the playoffs start this weekend, and at some point, we will talk about something besides the playoffs in this newsletter, but today is not that day. With just 48 hours to go until the NFL postseason kicks off, we'll be going all in on the playoffs today. Not only will we be ranking every underdog based on how likely they are to pull off an upset this weekend, but Pete Prisco is also going to go through and pick ALL 13 playoff games from the wild-card round to the Super Bowl. |
| We're also going to rank every coaching staff in the playoffs and while we're at it, we'll probably go ahead and rank every coaching vacancy. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Ranking the NFL playoff teams most likely to pull off an upset on Wild Card Weekend |
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| Over the past four years, there have been a total of eight upsets during the wild-card round, which means we've been averaging two upsets per year since the NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams in 2020. What that means is that there's a good chance we're going to see an upset or two this weekend, so Jared Dubin went through and ranked the underdogs mostly likely to turn the playoffs upside down with a win this weekend. |
| 1. Commanders (+3) over Buccaneers. "The Buccaneers can score with anyone ... but so can the Commanders. The Tampa Bay defense has let just about everybody move the ball at will, and the way Washington played over the second half of the season (i.e. once Jayden Daniels got his rib injury in the rearview mirror), that's a dangerous way to live." |
| 2. Rams (+1.5) over Vikings. "The Rams have the benefit of playing this game at home, so even though they are playing against the 14-3 Vikings, they have a better shot than it might seem. Throw in the fact that they beat the Vikings earlier this season, and it's even easier to envision them pulling off the upset." |
| 3. Packers (+4.5) over Eagles. "Green Bay arguably outplayed Philly back in Week 1 during the Eagles' 34-29 win in Brazil. If Jordan Love can get through the game healthy, maybe the Packers can pull off the upset this time." |
| If you want to check out Dubin's full rankings, be sure to click here. |
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| 2. Prisco picks all 13 playoff games and crowns his Super Bowl winner |
| It's fitting that we just ranked the most likely upsets of the wild-card round, because there's no one who loves upsets more than Pete Prisco. He just unveiled all of his picks for the full NFL playoff bracket and he has quite a few upsets in there. And just so we're all on the same page, we did unveil Prisco's wild-card picks yesterday, but for today, he's picking all 13 playoff games. |
| Let's check out his biggest upsets of each round: |
| Wild-card games |
| (7) Packers over (2) Eagles(5) Rams over (4) Vikings |
| Divisional games |
| (7) Packers over (1) Lions |
| Conference title games |
| (7) Packers over (3) Buccaneers(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs |
| That's right, Prisco has a No. 7 seed getting to the Super Bowl. Since the NFL added the seventh seed in 2020, they've gone 1-7 in the postseason, but Prisco is throwing that stat out the window and sending the Packers to the Super Bowl. He also has the Bills beating the Chiefs in the postseason for the first time ever with Josh Allen. |
| So who does Prisco have winning Super Bowl LIX? |
| Bills over Packers. "Before the season, I picked Green Bay to win it. I'm flipping. I think the MVP (Josh Allen) is gonna ride that wave all the way to win it all, and the Buffalo Bills are gonna win the Super Bowl." |
| The city of Buffalo will not be standing on Feb. 10 if this happens. |
| I only showed you six of Prisco's picks for the playoffs. If you want to see all 13, be sure to check out his full story here. |
| 3. Ranking the 10 most important players in the postseason (non-quarterback edition) |
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| After ranking the playoff quarterbacks on Wednesday, we thought we'd change things up today by ranking the best NON-quarterbacks in the postseason. Having a great quarterback can take you far in the playoffs, but it also helps if that QB has some help. |
| Garrett Podell ranked the top 10 most important non-quarterbacks and we're going to check out his top-five below: |
| 1. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. "Close your eyes. What comes to mind when you think of the 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles? For many, it's the NFL's leading rusher in Saquon Barkley and Philadelphia's star-studded offensive line. Barkley is obviously having a special year: He is only the ninth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards (2,005) in a single season." |
| 2. Ravens RB Derrick Henry. "Yes, he is 30 years old, but Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry has still got it. His 1,921 rushing yards are the most in NFL history in a season by a player the age of 30 or older, he co-led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 16 to set a Ravens' single-season record and he still has his breakaway speed." |
| 3. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. "How great is Justin Jefferson? Well, he's averaging more receiving yards per game (96.5) than any other player in NFL history, and he's made journeyman Sam Darnold look like a franchise quarterback." |
| 4. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs. "No one was better at finding the end zone in 2024 than Detroit Lions second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs: His 20 scrimmage touchdowns led the entire NFL and broke a franchise record." |
| 5. Chiefs DT Chris Jones. "For years, the Chiefs were powered by the brilliance of quarterback Patrick Mahomes' aerial assault, but that's no longer the case. In 2024, Kansas City has the 15th-ranked scoring offense (22.6 points per game) and the fourth-ranked scoring defense (19.2). The biggest driver of that top-five unit is All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones." |
| If you want to see Garrett's entire rankings, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Top playoff coaching staffs: Lions edge Chiefs and Ravens for top spot |
| When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it's not surprising to see a game where the two teams on the field are so evenly matched that the difference comes down to who has the better coaching staff on the sideline. With that in mind, CBSSports.com's Jared Dubin decided to rank the coaching staffs of every playoff team. |
| Although Dubin ranked all 14 teams, we're only going to check out his top two tiers: |
| TIER 1 |
1. Lions: HC Dan Campbell, OC Ben Johnson, DC Aaron Glenn
2. Ravens: HC John Harbaugh, OC Todd Monken, DC Zach Orr
3. Chiefs: HC Andy Reid, OC Matt Nagy, DC Steve Spagnuolo |
| Tier 1 explanation: "These teams land in this order only because the Chiefs have the weakest individual link (OC Matt Nagy, the only coordinator among the three teams who does not call plays) and Orr is in his first year as the defensive coordinator. Johnson and Glenn have been in place under Campbell for several years and have become arguably the most- and second-most sought-after coaches on the market when it comes to head-coaching interviews. That's how good they are." |
| TIER 2 |
4. Vikings: HC Kevin O'Connell, OC Wes Phillips, DC Brian Flores
5. Rams: HC Sean McVay, OC Mike LaFleur, DC Chris Shula |
| Tier 2 explanation: "McVay and Co. would be in the first tier if it weren't for their persistent issues with fourth-down decision-making, including in the playoffs. O'Connell's staff, meanwhile, may have done the best coaching job in the NFL this season. They got more out of a Sam Darnold-led offense than could have reasonably been expected, while Flores led the league's most creative defense. None of that was out of character." |
| Dubin ranked all 14 playoff coaching staffs and if you want to see where everyone ended up, be sure to check out his full story here. |
| 5. Ranking the top coaching vacancies and the candidate that would be the best for the job |
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| There are currently six head-coaching vacancies around the NFL, and if one thing's for sure, it's that some of the openings are a lot more attractive than the others. If you're wondering which open job is the best one, you don't have to wonder anymore because Will Brinson answered that question. |
| Brinson ranked every job opening, and here's what he came up with (He also listed the best candidates for each job, and we've added that below next to each team). |
1. Bears: Ben Johnson or Mike Vrabel
2. Patriots: Mike Vrabel
3. Jaguars: Ben Johnson or Liam Coen
4. Raiders: Brian Flores
5. Jets: Rex Ryan
6. Saints: Aaron Glenn |
| If you want to know why Brinson ranked each team where he did, you'll have to check out his full story here. And I have to say, I totally agree with where the Saints are in Brinson's ranking. Not only are they roughly $70 million over the salary cap, but they only have two months to fix that. Even if they do, it's not going to leave them much wiggle room to improve on a roster that went 5-12 in 2024. |
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| 6. Extra points: NFL makes contingency plans for Vikings-Rams |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Vikings-Rams game could be moved to Arizona. With wild fires raging in Los Angeles, the NFL is closely monitoring the situation since the Rams are scheduled to host the Vikings on Monday. If the fires get worse or if the air quality makes it impossible to hold the game in L.A., then the NFL announced that Vikings-Rams will be played at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix. However, the league has noted that it would prefer to keep the game in L.A. You can read more about the NFL's plans here. Tom Brady reached out to Bill Belichick. It seems that Brady reached out to his former coach to see if he'd be interested in coaching the Raiders, but Belichick said no thanks. The Raiders were one of multiple teams to reach out, but Belichick apparently told everyone that he plans to stay at UNC this year. You can check out the full details on this story here. Jets and Raiders eyeing Chiefs defensive coordinator for head-coaching job. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has played a key part in Kansas City's back-to-back Super Bowl wins, but he might not be around much longer. Both the Raiders and Jets have requested to interview Spagnuolo, and it will be interesting to see if those interviews go anywhere. For news and updates on all of the latest coaching interviews, be sure to follow our coaching tracker here. Cowboys star predicts Dallas will win Super Bowl for 2025 season. The Cowboys went 7-10 in 2024 and they don't have a coach under contract for next season, but Micah Parsons still seems confident that they can win the Super Bowl in 2025. "We're going to be holding a trophy up next year. Point-blank, period," Parsons said on his podcast. That's a pretty bold prediction. You can read his full comments here. |
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| | | | | NFL Playoffs | | College Basketball | The NFL Playoffs are here! Harbaugh's Chargers head to Houston for a NFL Wild Card matchup at 4:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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