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| Monday, March 15, 2021 |
| The last day before the start of the tampering period that kicks off NFL free agency saw a flurry of activity that changed the outlook of several players' Fantasy value -- and not always for the better. 19 of the top 22 free agents on CBS Sports' tracker are still un-signed -- though seven of those have been hit with the franchise tag already -- but the biggest name at running back, Aaron Jones, has already agreed to return to the Packers. That's a move that has significant ramifications for Fantasy players, obviously, but there were a few other news items you need to know about. |
| We'll have a ton more to talk about as the week moves forward, and the FFT newsletter and podcast will be happening every day this week to make sure you're caught up on everything that's going down and what it means for the 2021 Fantasy Football season. Here's what happened this weekend and what you need to know about it, beginning with Jones' decision to return to the Packers, followed by a breakdown of Jonnu Smith's decision to join the Patriots. |
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| Aaron Jones re-signs for four years, $48 million with Packers |
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| The biggest running back name on the free agent market technically never ended up making it to the market, as Jones announced he was re-signing with the Packers before free agency even opened Sunday night. He signed a four-year contract worth $48 million to stay with the franchise that has made him one of the best Fantasy running backs in the league over the last few seasons. |
| Jones was the top running back on the market, and this price seems pretty cheap given that. His agent Drew Rosenhaus said as much in announcing the signing, saying "Aaron would have signed for more in free agency but wanted to stay in Green Bay." That's all well and good for Jones, and it will surely endear him to Packers fans, but it's not at all what Fantasy players wanted to see. While it's great for Jones' value -- he ranked fourth in Fantasy points per game in 2020 and 2019 among running backs in PPR -- he hasn't exactly been a workhorse. He was 15th in carries and 14th in receptions in 16 games in 2019 and 10th and 11th in 2020 in 14 games. |
| Of course, he makes up for a somewhat limited workload by an incredibly efficient profile, averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry and scoring 30 touchdowns in his last 30 games. He should continue to be the lead back in Green Bay, and he should continue to be quite efficient and effective as a result -- I've got him as RB8 in my early PPR rankings. But this definitely holds back the potential of A.J. Dillon, one of our potential favorite early breakout candidates. |
| Dillon was essentially a non-factor for much of his rookie season, with five or fewer carries in all but one of his 11 games. The one exception? A 21-carry, 124-yard, two-touchdown game in Week 16. Dillon is big and fast and could be a touchdown machine playing in an offense with Aaron Rodgers leading the way, but it's hard to see him getting enough of a role to be worth starting now that Jones is back. |
| Over the last two seasons, Jones and Jamaal Williams have combined for 418 and 456 carries-plus-targets in each season. Williams is a free agent, and you have to assume the Packers will let him walk after re-signing Jones and spending a second-round pick on Dillon last year so that theoretically clears a path to a significant role for Dillon in 2021 and beyond. However, Dillon had just two targets last season, and he caught a whopping 21 passes in three full seasons in college. That doesn't mean he can't be a factor in the passing game, but you have to assume he won't just step right into Williams' role, as Williams had 80 targets over the last two seasons. |
| Which means Dillon is probably looking at a role where he is the No. 2 running back, averaging 8-10 carries per game, and you're hoping for two targets per game. He'll be an incredibly valuable handcuff, and it's possible he ends up averaging 40-50 rushing yards per game with a good chance for a touchdown and can be a viable flex option even in PPR leagues. But as long as Jones is healthy, Dillon probably has a cap on how much value he can bring to the table unless he can be a much better pass catcher than we've ever seen. |
| Which means a Jones-Dillon combination might make Jones even more valuable because he could take on an even larger role in the passing game if Williams leaves. If he stays in the 13-15 carry-per-game range and get to 60-plus catches, Jones should remain an elite Fantasy option even if Dillon vultures a touchdown here and there. |
| In my first update of the Packers projections for this news, Jones moves up from No. 8 to No. 6 in PPR (and from 10 to 6 in non-), mostly on the strength of 15 extra targets. I've got him rushing for 1,1175 yards with nine touchdowns and adding 55 catches for 460 yards and three receiving touchdowns. Dillon is RB39 in PPR and RB33 in non-PPR, with 698 rushing yards and six touchdowns. That's borderline flex territory, and I'll probably end up letting people who are more exciting about him have him if he ends up going higher than that. |
| Of course, if Williams comes back, Dillon may not even be worth drafting at all. Let's hope that doesn't happen, and let's hope Williams ends up somewhere like the Jets or Steelers where he could find a potentially valuable role of his own. Williams isn't a star, but he has value in both facets of the game, and he could be a Fantasy starter in his own right if he ends up in the right spot. |
| Green Bay is the right spot for Jones, even if it isn't necessarily what we wanted to see for Fantasy. Dillon will remain an incredibly intriguing prospect, one some Fantasy owners will still look for in the first six rounds on Draft Day, potentially. But he'll have the odds stacked against him, while Jones should be a borderline first-round pick in all drafts. That much is certain. |
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| Jonnu Smith gets four years, $50 million from Patriots |
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| Upgrading the receiving weapons had to be one of the biggest priorities for the Patriots this offseason, whether they go into 2021 with the re-signed Cam Newton as the starter or try to find a long-term option in addition, and this is a big splash to kick off free agency. Smith's contract is the fourth-largest for a tight end in the NFL right now in terms of total money, but the $31.25 million guaranteed is a record for the position, so the Patriots are betting big on Smith turning the flashes he showed in Tennessee into consistent production. |
| In four seasons since being the 100th overall pick out of Florida International University, Smith has never had more than 448 yards in a season, though he is coming off a career-high eight touchdowns. Smith has never put up massive numbers, but at his best, he's been an effective big-play receiver, averaging 10.0 yards per target in 2019, with at least one 50-plus-yard reception in each of the last two seasons. And it's that big-play potential that makes Smith such an intriguing player, both in Fantasy and in real life. |
| Over the last three seasons, Smith is one of just two tight ends with an average yards after catch per reception of at least seven yards (min. 100 targets), the other being George Kittle. Smith is a weapon with the ball in his hands, and that skill should be very valuable for the Patriots offense, as Newton ranked just 29th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in intended air yards per pass attempt in 2020. That number could increase if the Patriots add more playmakers who can earn targets down the field, but having someone who can break off big plays on short and intermediate routes will be a big boost for the offense as a whole. |
| The question for Smith's ultimate Fantasy value will be how big of a role he gets in the Patriots offense. They have the fewest catches by a tight end in the NFL over the last two seasons, but they've also been woefully lacking in talent. This is a significant investment in Smith, and given the dearth of talent here, you have to think they're going to plan for a big role in the passing game. It probably won't be a Darren Waller or Travis Kelce-esque target share, but even a 20% target share would be a huge deal for Smith. |
| It would also be totally realistic. Right now, Smith's main competition for targets in New England are Julian Edelman -- a soon-to-be 35-year-old who is still recovering from October knee surgery -- and James White, a running back. It wouldn't be a surprise if Smith was the leading receiver on this team, and as things stand, that might be the assumption I move forward with unless the Patriots add a legitimate wide receiver talent. |
| In my first run through the projections for the Patriots, I gave Smith a team-high 20% target share, leading to a 62-catch, 732-yard, seven-touchdown season. That is enough to move him up to the No. 6 spot in my tight end rankings, and it admittedly could be too low. This move puts Smith in that third tier at tight end -- Kelce, Kittle, and Waller are the first tier, and Mark Andrews currently represents something of a one-man tier after them -- and he'll likely stay there. |
| The addition of Smith also makes Newton a more interesting Fantasy option, because I was expecting little from the combination of Devin Asiasi and Ryan Izzo, who combined for 27 targets in 2020. I added about four touchdowns to his projection, and with his rushing ability, that pushed him to the No. 13 spot in six-point-per-pass-touchdown leagues and 12th in four-point-per leagues. |
| The Patriots offense is a long way from being even a top-25 passing game in the league, but there's potential for more growth here if they can give Newton more help. Smith is a good start, so let's see what else they do. |
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| Report: Jameis Winston is expected to return to the Saints |
| The Saints are working on a new contract for Winston, according to the report, after they re-worked Hill's contract and Drew Brees officially announced his retirement. The Saints will have an open competition in training camp for the starting QB spot between Winston and Hill, and it's interesting to consider the different possibilities for the offense depending on how that competition goes. |
| With Hill at QB |
| Hill would probably be the better Fantasy QB of the two, thanks to his rushing ability. I have him projected to be a top-10 QB if he starts for the Saints, with 3,700 passing yards and 23 touchdowns while adding 635 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. That would be a pretty exciting outcome, and the rushing projection may be low -- he was on pace for 836 yards and 16 touchdowns in his four starts last season. |
| Of course, it wouldn't be great news for the Saints skill players, especially Kamara, who relies on passing production more than any other elite Fantasy running back. He was on pace for just 64 targets in Hill's starts despite finishing with 107 in 15 games total. I would expect that pace to increase if they entered the season with Hill as the starter rather than having to turn to him mid-season, but Hill would almost certainly throw to Kamara significantly less than Brees did; he's more likely to take off and run when pressured rather than dumping the ball off. |
| The move to Hill may not be terrible news for Michael Thomas, however, as Hill looked for him constantly as the starter. Thomas had a target share of nearly 40%, and while he wouldn't be able to sustain that for an entire season, the Saints had a very simplified version of their offense with Hill at the helm, with Hill looking for Thomas early and often on shorter routes. Thomas could make up for the lack of overall volume in the offense with the increased target share, and a 100-catch season wouldn't be out of the question. |
| With Jameis at QB |
| I wouldn't expect the Saints to turn into the pass-happy offense they used to be with Winston at QB, but a return to 2019 levels, when they attempted 581 passes, wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Likewise, while I wouldn't expect Winston to revert back to his Tampa Bay days of pushing the ball down the field more than just about any other QB in the league, I would expect him to be more aggressive than either Hill or Brees. Which is to say, this could return to being one of the elite passing offenses in the NFL with Winston under center. |
| And that would be great news for Kamara. I have him as the No. 2 RB in PPR with Hill at QB, but he's projected for nearly 50 fewer points than Christian McCaffrey, my No. 1 back. With Winston, he remains No. 2, but the gap between him and McCaffrey dropps to around 10 points. That's based on a slight increase in rushing share and a significant increase in passing share, with his target share jumping from 15% to 20%. |
| Thomas would lose a bit of target share in this scenario, but the overall increase in pass attempts would make up most of the difference. And, Winston's more downfield-oriented approach could make those targets even more valuable for Thomas. Thomas would jump from the No. 5 WR in PPR in my projections to No. 2 with Winston at QB. Either way, I'm expecting a bounce-back season. |
| Ultimately, my preference would be to see Winston at QB, even knowing that would likely mean Hill would be there to vulture plenty of touchdowns. Still, I think he raises the ceiling of this offense across the board, because I think he's just a better player than Hill. And, given how valuable Kamara and Thomas are, I'd rather see them get a boost than see a slightly better QB available in the middle rounds. We'll find out over the summer which player will get the job, but for now, I know who I'm pulling for. |
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