Good afternoon and welcome back to Firepower.

This week Firepower got word that France, along with Belgium and Romania, will likely join the EU's massive €150 billion SAFE funding programme for military procurement. More capitals may well follow in the next few days as the deadline to formally join will run out at the end of the month. Though it’s not sure the EU countries will actually use (or want, or even need) the entire fund. More on that below.

In today's edition, we also have fresh numbers from the Czech ammo initiative for Ukraine, while we explain why an extension for the EU's ammunition production iniative ASAP is as good as dead.

Meanwhile, Firepower has obtained a list of NATO’s draft calendar runningthrough2027, including a summit to be held in Ankara.

We recommend you also watch out for Germany's Friedrich Merz and France's Emmanuel Macron meeting in Berlin on Wednesday, followed by their two defence ministers on Thursday. Franco-German defence cooperation will be high on their agenda given recent clashes over their joint fighter jet project.

What’s in today’s edition:

Good news for the Commission first: FRANCE IS POISED TO JOIN the EU’s €150 billion loan scheme for military procurement, sources told Firepower this week. So are Belgium and Romania. This would bring the total number of EU countries interested in the Commission’s financing plan to nine, Firepower’s tracking shows.

Still, the clock is ticking: capitals have until 29 July to indicate how much money they want from the pot, and the industry still has little clarity on what exactly governments want to buy.

Underspend: Despite the newcomers, the COMMISSION FEARS it will struggle to allocate the full €150 billion this autumn, four sources told Euractiv, because of a lack of interest in sizeable loans for rearmamanet.

All in all, Brussels estimates EU countries will request between €75 and €100 billion, one of the people briefed on the file said.

Ask us for the cash: The concern was made clear in a polite-but-pointed letter from EU defence and finance chiefs Andrius Kubilius and Valdis Dombrovskis sent last weekend seen by Euractiv, urging capitals to make use of the loans available. “We look forward to constructive engagement to make SAFE a success”, the letter reads.

EU vs TRUMP. Another piece of news arrived this week, stepping on the breaks of the EU’s ambition to support EU-made products’ research, production and procurement: Washington convinced a dozen of wealthy EU countries to stock up on more US-equipment – not only to arm Ukraine, but to replenish their own shelves – promising fast deliveries of the crown jewel: Patriots. The move left Switzerland's deliveries hanging. Germany’s Merz also said yesterday that its delivery to Ukraine could be finalised within weeks.

If pouring billions into the American arms industry wasn’t enough of a blow, the US envoy to NATO told Firepower that his “top priority” is to promote defence industry cooperation and co-production with the Europeans, including joint ventures and expanding output.

A potential conflict? We will be watching.

RENDEZ-VOUS last week of August in Denmark, where EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss how to use Russia’s frozen assets around the bloc to pay for American arms to send to Ukraine, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas said.

WAITING LIST. In the meantime, the industry is still waiting for NATO countries’ shopping list, as reported by Firepower, meant to give arms makers perspective on incoming orders.

EDIP GOVERNANCE DILEMMA. The last round of technical talks before the summer break on EDIP, the EU’s blueprint for subsidising industry and joint military purchase, ended without a compromise on supply chain surveillance, according to Euractiv’s information.

MEPs and capitals proposals differ on who should map out and monitor supply chains. EU countries are wary of giving the Commission too much power to identify and report on their manufacturing capabilities. EU lawmakers, instead, are more open to Commission involvement, but only with safeguards for handling sensitive data. Negotiations resume the week of 22 September, when political negotiations kick off.

ASAP NO MORE. The €500 million plan to boost ammunition production is officially dead, according to the latest agreement on the EU’s mini- simplification package on defence, seen by Firepower, brining EU countries on the same page with the Parliament.

NEW JOB. Jitka Látal Znamenáčková, the current Czech ambassador to the political and security committee in the Council, is moving to the Berlaymont with a focus on defence policies.

RUSSIA ATTACKS. NATO countries "are determined to employ the full range of capabilities in order to deter, defend against and counter the full spectrum of cyber threats", they wrote in a strongly-worded statement against Russia published Friday after the United Kingdom identified spies targeting the country and its military allies with cyber attacks.

The makeover of NATO HQ’s entrance in the north of Brussels is finished, creating a much more enjoyable environment with benches and a garden for officials, diplomats, military personnel and reporters wanting to take a break in the sun between meetings.

It seems the perfect place to get head-on the ministerials NATO has planned for 2026. Firepower has obtained a list of the Alliance’s tentative calendar:

• Defence: 16-17 October, 11-12 February, and 18-19 June
• Foreign affairs: 2-3 December, 1-2 April, and 20-21 May (in Sweden for the informal meeting).
• NATO Summit is planned around 8 August in Ankara

Looking ahead to 2026-2027:

• Defence: in October, on 17-18 February, and 17-18 June
• Foreign ministerials on 1-2 December, 7-8 April, in May in Croatia for the informal before the Albania Summit.

MFF CHEAT SHEET. The Commission’s proposed €131 billion for both defence and space for the next EU’s seven-year budget is already making the rounds.

But there's more for defence, including €17.7 billion for military mobility under the Connecting Europe Facility, €6.4 billion for collaborative defence and space research under Horizon Europe and a new DARPA-approach for the European Innovation Council. The €865 billion Cohesion Funds could also be tapped for defence.

Von der Leyen has proposed a broader €150 billion-strong loan scheme called “Catalyst Europe”, similar to SAFE loans but not limited to defence.

Meanwhile, the European Peace Facility, the EU’s war fund to pay for weapons for third countries, including Ukraine, should get €30.5 billion.

PAY UP. All the spending comes with a price tag. So, among other EU income streams, a taxation on cooperations with an annual net turnover of over €100 million is planned. While SMEs would be exempt, Europe’s biggest defence players – think Airbus, Leonardo, Thales and MBDA – could be asked to contribute a share of their skyrocketing revenues.

CIGARETTES FOR TANKS? The Commission wants the EU budget to get €78.4 billion over seven years from tobacco taxation, enough to cover a substantial portion of new defence spending.

Minutes before a key EU’s long-term budget defence briefing at the Commission HQ in Brussels, the Berlaymont, a bomb alert drill locked the building down.

Security told journalists to stay out, unless they wanted to be escorted to a bomb shelter. Ironically, the designated bomb shelter was none other than the Salle de Presse – exactly where reporters were trying to go in the first place.

THE NETHERLANDS said this week it is considering buying and repurposing 24 decommissioned train carriages of the state-owned railway operator NS to mobile military hospitals. Just earlier, the defence ministry also reached an agreement with airline KLM to keep former F-35 pilots up to date on their training. The move followed accusations that KLM was luring military pilots away from the air force.

GERMANY is reportedly weighing in on acquiring a minority stake in the Franco-German defence company KNDS, amid concerns that the German half’s planned share sell-off could upset the company’s delicate bilateral ownership balance. Earlier this month, Berlin explored a possible stake in TKMS, the shipbuilding division of ThyssenKrupp, should it go public. These moves show how serious the Berlin is in following through on its intent to intervene when Germany's security interests are threatened by ownership changes of key defence companies.

CZECH Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský warned this week that a victory of Andrej Babiš as prime minister in the October elections would sign the end of the signature ammunition initiative to Ukraine. Czechia and its 12 partners delivered 800,000 large calibre ammo have been delivered including 290,000 of the 155mm type to Kyiv in 2025, he said, hoping it will continue.

While FRENCH prime minister François Bayrou pitched on Tuesday a total freeze of state spending in his 2026 budget plan, Emmanuel Macron announced €3.5 billion extra for defence, financed through “productivity” (not debt!). Opposition leaders have already called for a vote of no confidence in the autumn. According to Socialist MP Anna Pic, talking to Firepower, Macron’s figure is not fresh contracts, but what the government actually has to pay for some of what defence companies have already delivered.

The move reflects a growing push within the EU to redirect public investment toward defence and security, including military R&D and infrastructure, EIB vice-president Robert de Groot told Firepower.

European Union

• Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa at the EU-Japan summit in Tokyo, 23 July
• Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa at the EU-China summit in Beijing, 24 July
• EU defence chief Kubilius in the US, 18–20 July
• The Agendas of Ursula von der Leyen, Andrius Kubilius and Kaja Kallas will be available here
• Commission presents 2025 Strategic Foresight Report, 23 July
• Working party on Defence Industry, 22 July
• Coreper II, 18 and 23 July

The Capitals

• Meeting of the Ramstein group coordinating military support too Ukraine, 21 July
• Macron and Merz meet in Berlin, 23 July to talk FCAS & Co
• Lecornu and Pistorius meet in Berlin, 24 July with a similar agenda

Thank you for reading,

Firepower was brought to you by Euractiv's defence team, with extra reporting by Nick Alipour and Sarantis Michalopoulos. You can find the rest of our coverage here.

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Have a nice weekend.