| | | | Tuesday, March 16, 2021 | | The first day of free agency saw a flurry of moves, but we're still waiting for some of the bigger dominoes to fall. That's not terribly surprising, given that many teams are still in a holding pattern waiting for the fate of some of the big quarterbacks to be determined. Plus, there's that whole "lower salary cap" thing that could be leading teams to be more patient than normal. | | Of course, none of that applies to the Patriots, who decided to remake their roster on both sides of the ball as they look to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor showing in 2020, the first year of the post-Tom Brady era. They retained QB Cam Newton on a one-year deal, and then added tight end Jonnu Smith and wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in the first day of action. They also made a number of signings on the defensive side, adding DT Davon Godchaux, DB Jalen Mills, LB Matt Judon and DL Deatrich Wise with the hopes of getting back to being one of the league's stingiest units. | | And they'll need that, because even with the additions to the receiving corps, this still looks like one of the worst units in the league. Smith should be the top target in the passing game, and I wrote about what to expect from him in yesterday's newsletter. The additions of Agholor and Bourne change the outlook a bit, but not much -- neither is anything like an alpha who will demand targets, as Dave Richard wrote Monday . Smith should be close to the No. 1 option in the offense, and the Patriots don't pass the ball enough to support multiple Fantasy relevant receivers barring a change in strategy. | | | | Which is all to say, Smith should be a top six Fantasy tight end in 2021, but the bigger impact of all this is that it should make Newton's life much easier. And, because he's still such a dynamic runner -- especially near the goal line -- the bar for him to be a top-12 Fantasy QB is pretty low from a passing perspective. If he can even get to 3,500 yards and 22 passing touchdowns, he'd probably be a viable starter, and it becomes easier to imagine him getting there with this added help. | | The Patriots were the biggest movers and shakers on Monday, but that wasn't everything we saw. Jameis Winston returned to the Saints, in a move that sets up an open competition to replace Drew Brees as the Saints starting QB. I wrote about that yesterday as well, but here's the Spark Notes version: Let's just hope Winston wins out. It'll be better for everyone else in that offense. | | The other big news from Monday saw the Jets sign Corey Davis to a three-year deal, and that's one that might actually have quite a bit of Fantasy relevance. You can read more about that here, along with the rest of what you need to know from Monday's free agency rumor mill and signings. But first, four winners and three losers from free agency day one: | | Four Winners From Day 1 | | | | | | Cam Newton -- For all the reasons stated above, naturally. Newton was a viable starting option for Fantasy for stretches in 2020, despite poor play as a passer and a total lack of help. The Patriots will likely still have one of the worst receiving corps in the league even after these moves, but as long as Newton remains a productive rusher, the bar for him being Fantasy relevant as a passer will be very low. Corey Davis -- I wrote about Davis signing with the Jets here, and in my first run of the projections for them, I have him as WR27 in PPR. That's not bad for a guy who didn't even have his fifth-year option picked up prior to last season. It helps that the Jets have very little competition for targets, though there are also significant questions about the QB situation and play calling that make him a high-variance player. Still, if you could draft him in the sixth round as a No. 3 or 4 WR, that would probably be a good gamble. Terry McLaurin -- With Ryan Fitzpatrick joining the Washington Football Team, McLaurin probably has the best QB he's ever played with. Sure, that might seem like damning with faint praise, but in this case, Fitzpatrick could be a perfect fit. He's an aggressive passer who, for all his faults, helps his receivers make big plays. He's supported multiple viable Fantasy receivers in the past, including excellent play from Mike Evans and the best stretch of DeVante Parker's career. His signing solidifies McLaurin as a No. 1 Fantasy WR for me. Aaron Jones -- Jones' decision to return to the Packers should leave him among the second tier of elite running backs for Fantasy, but Jamaal Williams' decision to leave in free agency is really what makes Jones a winner. Jones should see an increased role in the passing game, and that could give him something like 70-catch upside in a best-case scenario. He could legitimately be a top-five RB again. | | SportsLine's optimal bracket beat almost 90% of CBS Sports Bracket Challenge players over the past two years. This year, it is calling for more upsets. A few of notes in the South Region: | | No. 14 Colgate takes down No. 3 Arkansas in the first round. No. 10 Virginia Tech beats No. 7 Florida. No. 9 Wisconsin pulls the slight upset over No. 8 North Carolina. | | After simulating the tournament 10,000 times, the model's bracket also has identified one region where the No. 2 seed wins and the Nos. 10 and 13 seeds pull off stunners in the first round. Also, join the Fantasy Football Today bracket challenge group for a chance to win a spot in the FFT listeners' league for the 2021 season. | | Three Losers From Day 1 | | | | A.J. Dillon -- Dillon also benefits from Williams' departure, but Jones' return is what really hurts his value. Jones should remain the lead back for the Packers, and while I can see Dillon getting 8-10 carries and vulturing some touchdowns, his limited track record as a pass catcher likely means he'll be just a touchdown or bust No. 3 or 4 Fantasy RB. There's value in that, but unless something happens to Jones, he'll probably just be a bye week replacement most weeks. Jameis Winston -- For now, at least, Winston's return to the Saints means he's in a competition with Taysom Hill, the guy who got the starting nod over him already. My preference would be that the Saints start Winston -- it would certainly be better news for Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara -- but even if that happens, you know Sean Payton is going to let Hill vulture touchdowns and just be a Fantasy nuisance in general. I would have loved to see Winston leave in free agency for somewhere like Washington or Chicago where he could have been the unquestioned starter. Ryan Tannehill -- The Titans lost their No. 1 tight end and No. 2 wide receiver, leaving Tannehill with some awfully bare cupboards. Sure, A.J. Brown is a dominant WR, one of the five best in the game, but they'll have to get creative later in free agency or in the draft to add talent to this receiving corps. As for now, I'm downgrading Tannehill for Fantasy, as he falls out of the top 12. | | | | News and rumors | | The Jaguars signed Carlos Hyde -- This is actually great news for James Robinson, assuming it represents the primary addition the team makes to the RB room. Hyde will be 31 years old shortly after Week 1 and has never been much of a pass-catcher, so he'll likely just spell Robinson occasionally on running downs. I'll still have Robinson as a No. 1 RB for now, and if they don't make another significant addition, here'll stay there. Jamaal Williams will not be returning to the Packers -- I wrote about Aaron Jones' decision to return to the Packers and what it means for both Jones and A.J. Dillon , but with Williams announcing he won't return, that does make things clearer. Dillon will be the primary backup and could vulture a few touchdowns from Jones, but Jones should remain a No. 1 RB for Fantasy as the primary runner with little competition for passing down's snaps. As for Williams, we'll still need to see where he winds up. But he's a decent runner and pass catcher who could be Fantasy viable in the right spot. Giants signed RB Devontae Booker -- Here's your Saquan Barkley handcuff. Barkley dealt with a high-ankle sprain in 2019 before suffering a torn ACL early in 2020, and while he's expected to be fully recovered by the start of training camp, Booker is a decent insurance option who can help out in the passing game as well. He'll be worth a late-round pick in a zero-RB build, and could be a No. 2 Fantasy RB if he has to fill in for Barkley at any point. The Dolphins are pursuing Kenny Golladay -- The Dolphins seem like an obvious spot for a No. 1 WR, and Golladay would be a decent choice given his ability to stretch the field. They could use another playmaker in the passing game, and Golladay would help open up the playbook for Tua Tagovailoa. There's room for this offense to take a big step forward, and there's room for a true No. 1 receiver to step up. The Buccaneers re-signed Rob Gronkowski -- The Bucs are getting the band back together again, though whether Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette will be back remains to be seen. If so, I'll be avoiding pretty much everyone in this offense, because there will just be too many mouths to feed -- we saw Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were inconsistent No. 2 WRs when everyone was healthy, and they'll probably be drafted as more than that. If Brown doesn't return, it makes it easier to buy into Evans and Godwin, while Fournette leaving would make Ronald Jones a viable No. 2 Fantasy RB in his own right. | | Offensive line news | | Chiefs sign OL Joe Thuney -- Offensive line was and remains a big need for the Chiefs, but this was a good start. They could use another starter, but they got creative to add one of the best interior linemen in the league. Chargers sign C Corey Linsley and OL Matt Feiler -- The Chargers clearly want to make sure they're building a solid foundation around Justin Herbert, just like the Bills have with Josh Allen. In the Chargers case, they've already got the playmakers, so bolstering the line is the key this offseason, and this is a good start. OL Pat Elflein to the Panthers -- The Panthers line needs to be re-worked, especially along the interior, so hopefully this helps. Of course, who they'll actually be protecting remains to be seen, as the Panthers remain in the hunt for a QB upgrade. OL Kevin Zeitler to the Ravens -- Zeitler was released by the Giants to save cap space and should step into a starting role for the Ravens along the interior line. That's good news for a team that wants to run as much as the Ravens do. | | | | | | | | Bracket Week | | THE BRACKET IS LIVE! | Need help filling out your bracket? CBS Sports HQ has got you covered, with non-stop coverage of every game from every region of the NCAA Tournament. Leave it to the experts this year, we know you might be rusty after taking last year off 😉
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