What you need to know about the underreported bird flu crisis

Good morning.

Picture this: you’re in a supermarket looking for breakfast bits or something easy for lunch. You wander over to the egg aisle, scan the prices, and think: what is going on?

In the UK, egg prices have, in some cases, risen by nearly 20% since the start of the year, according to The Grocer’s analysis of Assosia data.

Across the Atlantic, the price of eggs has become such an issue that it’s practically a culture war battleground. In a press conference last August, Donald Trump – flanked by packaged foods, meats, condiments, milk and eggs – declared that he’d tackle the crisis on day one of his presidency.

The inflationary rise in egg prices is down to bird flu. The virus is rapidly depleting poultry stocks, as farms are required to cull entire flocks if even a single bird tests positive. According to data from the US agriculture department, more than 22m birds have been affected in the last 30 days alone.

The UK has been designated an avian influenza prevention zone, effectively placing birds in their own version of lockdown. In England and Wales, bird “gatherings” have been banned.

But this isn’t just about whether you can have a fried egg with your breakfast. The virus has spread beyond poultry, infecting other wildlife and dozens of people in North America, even killing one person. The first human case in England was detected last month. Scientists still say the risk of a widespread human outbreak remains low, but the virus is hitting milestones – and wreaking havoc on wildlife.

Today’s newsletter breaks down the impact of avian flu and how worried humans should be. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘The virus is evolving – and we must be prepared’

The H5N1 subtype of avian flu has been around for decades, and was first identified in southern China in 1996. It primarily infected poultry, only occasionally jumping to wild birds. When it did, the virus often killed them quickly, limiting its ability to spread globally.

That changed in 2020 with the emergence of a new strain – one that could sustain itself in wild bird populations year-round, including during the spring, when birds gather in high densities. Within two years, thousands were dying worldwide, with cases detected in Peru, Israel and the UK.

So far, more than 500 bird species have been infected, along with at least 70 mammal species. Below, we look at the fallout.

Agriculture effects

Bird flu was first detected in cattle in March 2024, which was a surprise for scientists. While pasteurised milk remains safe to consume, raw milk is a different story. It surged in popularity last year among sections of the anti-vaccine “Make America Healthy Again” wing of Trump’s movement (spearheaded by the recently confirmed health secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr), because of baseless claims that it could “advance human health”. In reality, raw milk can contain high levels of the virus, making transmission far easier.

Beyond the health risks, bird flu is dealing a devastating economic blow to farmers. In regions where poultry is a primary source of protein, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that avian influenza poses a “serious threat to food and nutrition security”.

According to the UN, hundreds of millions of people’s livelihoods have already been affected. The financial pressure on farmers may leave them unable to invest in proper biosafety measures, further exacerbating the crisis.

The impact on wildlife

Since 2021, 280m wild birds have died from the virus – but there are tens of thousands more casualties. In Argentina, 17,000 southern elephant seal pups perished, wiping out nearly an entire generation of seals. More than 20,000 South American sea lions have died in Chile and Peru.

Even domestic animals haven’t been spared – a small but growing number of house cats in the US have fallen ill. The virus has also reached zoos, endangering rare and vulnerable species. Between August and October last year, 47 tigers, three lions, and a panther died in Vietnamese zoos.

Are humans in danger?

In the US, 68 people have been infected so far – most of them experienced mild symptoms. However, as the virus continues to jump between species, emerging data suggests that certain variants could cause severe illness and even death, particularly when transmitted directly from birds to humans.

Scientists warn that cross-species pandemics are on the rise. As one expert told the Guardian’s biodiversity reporter Phoebe Weston: “There is a fair body of work now demonstrating that most human viruses are zoonotic [of animal origin].” For more background on the drivers behind bird flu, Phoebe has written about how biodiversity loss and the climate crisis are driving the increase in infectious disease outbreaks, making them more frequent, widespread and dangerous.

Meanwhile, the political landscape in the US has only added to concerns. Trump’s decision to pull the country out of the World Health Organization – an agency that coordinates global health responses and facilitates data sharing – has alarmed researchers.

Compared with 10 months ago, the virus now has “a tonne more opportunities” to adapt to mammal hosts, thanks to its rapid spread among cows and other animals across the US, one expert told the weekly scientific journal Nature.

Bird flu may never escalate into a pandemic or become a major threat to humans. But as a UN pandemic expert cautioned: “We must remember that this can change quickly, as the virus is evolving – and we must be prepared for such a scenario.”

What else we’ve been reading

Ellen Pierson-Hagger interviewed the influential leftwing journalist and political commentator Ash Sarkar as she publishes her first book, Minority Rule: Adventures in the Culture War. Katy Vans, newsletters team

The actor Tuppence Middleton gives a candid account of what living with OCD is like in this brilliant extract from her new memoir. Nimo

The Breakfast Club may not have aged well, but it was a trailblazer 40 years ago, setting the template for the teen movie. Charles Bramesco takes another look at the beloved John Hughes classic. Katy

Michael Segalov spoke with Bridgerton and Wicked’s Jonathan Bailey about how his recent projects have propelled his profile to new heights, bringing with them a unique set of challenges. Nimo

We are still deep into flu season so what does the expert say about feeding a cold and starving a fever? Katy

Sport

Football | Tottenham Hotspur held off Manchester United to win 1-0 after James Maddison’s 13th minute opener, while Liverpool once again moved seven points clear after beating Wolves 2-1 earlier on Sunday.

Football | Arsenal Women crushed Tottenham 5-0 in the Women’s Super League in Chloe Kelly’s re-debut for the club after a January move from Manchester City. Mary Fowler made WSL history as Manchester City cruised to a 4-0 win over Liverpool at the Joie Stadium.

Tennis | Emma Raducanu ended her losing run in style with a straight-sets victory over Greece’s Maria Sakkari in the Dubai Duty Free Championships. Raducanu came into the match on the worst run of results in her career, having lost four successive matches.

The front pages

“Talks lay bare transatlantic rift over war in Ukraine” says the Guardian while the Times says “PM will act as ‘bridge’ to Trump in peace talks” – hope his back can take it. “Starmer flies into a storm” is the Mail’s version while the Telegraph leads with “Starmer: I’m ready to put troops in Ukraine”. A decent summary from the i: “UK to join crisis talks on European defence – as Ukraine is not invited to US-Russia summit” while the Financial Times goes with “European leaders hold crisis meeting on Ukraine and wider defence plans”. The Metro takes an interesting angle with “Putin’s war of fire and ice”, covering a drone hitting Chornobyl and a power station attack cutting off Ukrainians’ heating. “Killer ex royal aide works at animal shelter” – that’s the Daily Mirror’s “Jane Andrews exclusive”. “Farmers driven to brink of despair” – familiar subject matter in the Daily Express, which seems to be betting heavily on an inheritance tax reversal that it would then claim as a victory for itself.

Today in Focus

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The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Chloë Hamilton shared her journey of disconnecting from constant phone notifications to improve her wellbeing and focus on her children. Initially overwhelmed by late-night messages from a WhatsApp mum group, she activated Do Not Disturb mode to find peace.

Over three years later she is still reaping the benefits. While she still struggles with the urge to check her phone, she believes this shift has made her a calmer, more present mother.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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