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| Tuesday, January 21, 2025 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| There are only three games left in the NFL season, which makes me very sad, but I decided to cheer myself up today by making some picks for two of those games. We've got the AFC and NFC title games coming up on Sunday and since I hand out early picks every Tuesday, I'll once again be doing that today. |
| I've already mentally prepared for the fact that two fan bases are going to hate me for picking against their team. |
| Not only will we be making picks today, but we'll also be taking a look at the coaching carousel. There were five jobs open when the week started, but that went down to four on Monday with the Bears hiring Ben Johnson. The Jets could also soon be making a hire and that could happen as soon as today. |
| We'll be breaking down all the coaching news, plus we'll be taking a look at why Jayden Daniels might be having the best rookie season in NFL history. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Bears set to hire Ben Johnson: Five things to know |
| The Bears wanted Ben Johnson and they got him almost as soon as he became available. Less than 48 hours after the Lions were eliminated from the playoffs, the Bears made their move on Monday to hire the Detroit offensive coordinator. |
| Here's everything you need to know about the hiring: |
| Johnson was the hottest coaching candidate on the market. Besides the Bears, Johnson also interviewed with the Jaguars, Patriots and Raiders. According to The Athletic, Johnson wasn't interested in the Jaguars job because they weren't willing to get rid of general manager Trent Baalke. Tom Brady tried to convince Johnson to head to Las Vegas, but apparently, Johnson didn't like the fact that the Raiders didn't have a quarterback in place. In the end, Johnson ended up picking the team that already has a franchise QB in place. This hiring is good news for Caleb Williams. Jared Goff put up huge numbers during his three seasons with Ben Johnson and it won't be surprising if Williams does the same. During the 2024 season, the Lions led the NFL in scoring with 33.2 points per game, marking the first time since 1954 that Detroit led the entire league in scoring. Johnson is creative and he has plenty of playmakers in Chicago who should be able to help him turn Williams into a star. If you want more details on what this hire could mean for Williams, you can check that our here. The bar is low for Johnson. The Bears have been churning through coaches for nearly 60 years now. From 1968 through 2023, the Bears hired a total of 12 coaches (not including interim coaches) and only ONE of them ended their career in Chicago with a winning record (Matt Nagy). Johnson will be the team's fifth head coach since 2014 and if he can find any success for a team that's only made the playoffs twice over the past 14 seasons, he'll instantly become the most popular man in Chicago. Johnson already eyeing two coordinators. It's not clear if Johnson will hire an offensive coordinator, but he'll definitely need a defensive coordinator and a special teams coordinator and he already has two names in mind. At DC, Johnson is apparently looking at former Saints coach Dennis Allen for the job. Johnson is also hoping to land former Saint interim coach Darren Rizzi for the special teams job. You can read more about those possible hires here. Johnson is a first-time NFL head coach. The 38-year-old Johnson has been an NFL assistant since 2012, but this will be his first head coaching job. He got his start in the NFL as an offensive assistant for the Dolphins and he spent seven seasons in Miami before moving on to Detroit in 2019. Johnson spent three seasons in various assistant jobs with the Lions before being promoted to offensive coordinator in 2022. |
| For our full story on Johnson's hiring, be sure to click here. |
| If you want to stay up to date on the five remaining coaching searches going on around the league, including the latest interviews and the hottest candidates, be sure to check out our coaching tracker here. |
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| 2. Breech's picks for AFC Championship and NFC title game |
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| First, I'd like to start here by complimenting myself for predicting the biggest upset of the playoffs. Last week, I predicted that the Commanders would beat the Lions in a shootout and that's exactly what happened. Unfortunately, that was about the only highlight for me during a divisional round where I went 2-2. |
| Am I going to predict an upset for the second straight week? Glad you asked. |
| Here are my picks for the AFC and NFC Championship games. |
(6) Washington at (2) Philadelphia, 3 p.m. ET (Fox) -- LINE: Eagles, -5.5. If the Commanders defense has struggled with one thing this year, it's stopping the run and if you can't stop the run, the last guy in the world you want to be facing is Saquon Barkley. The Eagles running back is averaged 125.3 yards per game this year, which led the NFL, and that doesn't even include the fact that he went off for 205 yards against the Rams in the divisional round, which was the fifth-most rushing yards in a playoff game in NFL history. Barkley will now get to face a Commanders defense surrendered 137.5 yards per game on the ground during the regular season, which was the third-worst number in the NFL. Barkley faced the Commanders twice in the regular season and went for more than 145 yards both times. I think Barkley has a big game and he carries the Eagles to Super Bowl LIX. THE PICK: Eagles 27-24 over Commanders
(2) Buffalo at (1) Kansas City, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) -- LINE: Chiefs, -1.5. The Bills are playing their best football of the season, but problem for them is that this game is on the road. Yes, the Bills are 15-4 on the season, but that breaks down like this: They're 10-0 at home and just 5-4 on the road. Patrick Mahomes has basically been unbeatable in the playoffs and I don't think he'll let the Chiefs lose this game as they look to chase history by becoming the first NFL team ever to win three straight Super Bowls. THE PICK: Chiefs 26-23 over Bills |
| To get my full take on both games, be sure to check out my conference title game picks by clicking here. |
| 3. Why Jayden Daniels might be having the greatest rookie season in NFL history |
| The Commanders have pulled off one of the greatest turn arounds in NFL history and big reason they've been able to do that is because they hit a home run when they decided to take Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 draft. |
| Daniels has totally transformed the organization: He took a team that went 4-13 last year and has them on the cusp of their first Super Bowl appearance since 1991. |
| With that in mind, here are a few numbers that show just how good Daniels has been this year (All stats include his regular-season and postseason numbers combined unless noted) |
| Daniels is tied with Ben Roethlisberger for the most wins (14) by a rookie QB ever and he could break the record with a win on Sunday against the Eagles. He's tied for the second-most total touchdowns (35) by a rookie quarterback ever. He has the most total yards (5,113) by a rookie quarterback ever.With Washington's win over Detroit, he became the first rookie QB in NFL playoff history to beat a team with 14 wins or more. He's just the sixth rookie QB to make it to a conference title game, joining Brock Purdy, Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. He's also just the third rookie QB to win two playoff games on the road, joining Flacco and Sanchez. He broke the regular-season records for completion percentage (69.0%) and rushing yards (891) by a rookie QB.He's tied with Russell Wilson for the most go-ahead touchdown passes (5) by a rookie in the fourth quarter or overtime. He led the Commanders to 14 wins this season, making them just the second team in NFL history to follow up a 13-loss season with a 13 or more wins in their following season. The Commanders join Peyton Manning's 1998-99 Colts.Daniels helped the Commanders end a 19-year drought without a playoff win and a 33-year drought without a conference title appearance snapped 18-season playoff win drought. If the Commanders win on Sunday, he'll become the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to make it to the Super Bowl as a starter. |
| Garrett Podell did a full breakdown of why Daniels is having a historically great season and you can check it out here. Even C.J. Stroud thinks Daniels is having the best rookie season ever and if you want to know what he had to say, you can read his comments here. |
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| 4. NFL names refs for AFC and NFC title games |
| The NFL has officially announced the two officiating crews that will be working the AFC and NFC title games this weekend, and if you like your games to feature a lot of penalties, then you're going to love the referees that have been assigned to work this weekend. |
| The referee in the AFC title game oversaw an officiating crew that threw the most flags in 2024, while the referee in the NFC title game oversaw the officiating crew that threw the fourth-most flags per game. |
| Here's a look at the two refs: |
| NFC Championship ref: Shawn Hochuli |
| Hochuli, the son of the legendary Ed Hochuli, has worked a total of eight playoff games in his career, but this will mark the first time that he's worked a conference title game. |
| One notable thing about Hochuli is that his crew worked 16 games this year and there was an average of 13.8 penalties per game, which was the fourth-most in the NFL in 2024, according to NFLPenalties.com. Of course, Hochuli won't be working with his normal crew, so it's possible that number will be cut down. |
| Here's a look at how the Eagles and Commanders have fared over the past five years when Hochuli has served as the ref in one of their games (stats via Pro Football Reference). |
| Commanders: 1-2 (1-0 in 2024)Eagles: 6-0 (1-0 in 2024) |
| Since the start of the 2021 season, Hochuli has only been the referee for one Commanders game and that came in Week 15 of this season when Washington beat New Orleans 20-19. The two losses both came in 2020. |
| AFC Championship ref: Clete Blakeman |
| Blakeman is considered one of the best officials in the NFL, which is why he almost always gets the call to work as the referee in big games. The Bills-Chiefs game will mark the 16th postseason assignment of Blakeman's career, which already includes FIVE prior games as a conference title ref plus one game as a Super Bowl ref, which came in Super Bowl 50. |
| That being said, Blakeman's crew called the most penalties per game this years with an average of 15.8, according to NFLPenalties.com. As we mentioned with Hochuli, though, Blakeman won't be working with his normal crew, so it's possible that number will be cut down. |
| Here's a look at how the Bills and Chiefs have fared over the past five years when Blakeman has served as the ref in one of their games (stats via Pro Football Reference). |
| Bills: 5-2 (1-0 in 2024)Chiefs: 3-4 (0-0 in 2024) |
| The last time Blakeman officiated a Chiefs game came all the way back on Christmas in 2023 when the Raiders pulled off a shocking 20-14 win over Kansas City. With fans complaining that the Chiefs are getting the benefit of unfair calls, it's interesting that the NFL has assigned a ref that the Chiefs have struggled to win with. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting QB, the Chiefs are 5-6 with Blakeman. |
| Blakeman was the referee for two of the wildest losses of Mahomes' career: First, there was Kansas City's 54-51 loss to the Rams back in 2018. During the postseason that year, Blakeman was the ref for New England's 37-31 overtime win over the Chiefs in the AFC title game. |
| 5. NFL Draft order: Rams actually have a first-round pick |
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| With four more teams going down over the weekend, that means we've taken one step closer to knowing the full draft order. The biggest surprise here might be the fact that the Rams still have their first-round pick. With their loss to the Eagles, that means they've now clinched the 26th overall pick in the draft. |
| Assuming they don't trade the pick, that means this will mark just the second time in nine drafts that Sean McVay will get to take advantage of having a first-round pick. The man has led his team to two Super Bowls despite he fact that he only had one first-round pick in his first eight seasons with the team. |
| With that in mind, here is the official order for the top 28 spots in the draft: |
1. Titans (3-14)
2. Browns (3-14)
3. Giants (3-14)
4. Patriots (4-13)
5. Jaguars (4-13)
6. Raiders (4-13)
7. Panthers (5-12)
8. Jets (5-12)
9. Saints (5-12)
10. Bears (5-12)
11. 49ers (6-11)
12. Cowboys (7-10)
13. Dolphins (8-9)
14. Colts (8-9)
15. Falcons (8-9)
16. Cardinals (8-9)
17. Bengals (9-8)
18. Seahawks (10-7)
19. Buccaneers (10-7)
20. Broncos (10-7)
21. Steelers (10-7)
22. Chargers (11-6)
23. Packers (11-6)
24. Vikings (14-3)
25. Texans (10-7)
26. Rams (10-7)
27. Ravens (12-5)
28. Lions (15-2) |
| As for the rest of the draft order, we won't know where the other our final four teams will be selecting until they get eliminated from the postseason. If you want to take a look at the needs for each team in the top 28, we've got that here. |
| The 2025 NFL Draft will be coming at you in April from Green Bay, so the cheeseheads will definitely be excited when the Packers go on the clock at 23rd overall. |
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| 6. Extra points: Jets targeting Aaron Glenn as next head coach |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Aaron Glenn set to interview with the Jets. The Lions defensive coordinator will be interviewing with the Jets today and apparently, there seems to be mutual interest in getting a deal done. According to NFL.com, the team's goal to is to keep Glenn from leaving the building, which means the Jets could have a new coach by the end of the day. We've got all the details on the possible hiring here. Colts hire a new defensive coordinator. Two weeks after being fired by the Bengals, Lou Anarumo already has a new job after getting hired by the Colts on Monday. Anarumo was with the Bengals for six seasons and played a key role in the team's run to Super Bowl LVI. You can read more about his hiring here. Bengals eyeing Notre Dame's defensive coordinator. The Bengals defensive coordinator job has been open for more than two weeks now, but there hasn't been much movement on a possible hiring and now we know why: The team was waiting for Notre Dame to finish its season. It appears the Bengals are looking to hire Al Golden away from the Fighting Irish, and at this point, it would be a surprise if he doesn't take the job. You can read more about his potential hiring here. Cooper Kupp unsure if he'll be returning to Rams. The veteran receiver is definitely planning to play in the NFL next season, but it might not be with the Rams. Kupp was asked about his future with the team on Monday and he didn't sound so sure that he would be returning to Los Angeles. "Who knows what's going to happen," Kupp said, via ESPN.com . "That's out of my control. And we will see what it's going to be." You can read more about Kupp's future here. |
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