| | | | Wednesday, October 21, 2020 | | I had an interesting experience while setting my waiver-wire claims last night while writing this newsletter: I found myself in a position where I didn't necessarily need to make any moves in a few leagues. I put in a few token claims just to see who might slip through the cracks to me, but outside filling in bye weeks and replacing streaming options I wasn't as desperate as I expected. | | I don't say this to brag — I've got some good teams, I've got some bad teams, like anyone else — but rather to say that this probably wasn't one of those weeks where the waiver wire is going to make the difference for most of you. Obviously, injuries could change your personal calculus, but generally speaking, if you want to change your fortunes in Week 7, the best route might be through the trade market. | | Catch up on all of the news and notes you need to know about from Tuesday around the NFL and then read on for my top five buy-low targets for Week 7, with Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart as my guide. Plus, prepare for Week 7 with Heath Cummings' preview for each position, featuring matchup notes, projections, rankings and more. | | As always, if you want your questions answered, send them to [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" and they may be featured right here later in the week. Here's everything else you need to know before we send Start 'Em & Sit 'Em out your way later tonight: | | Week 7 Prep: Waiver Wire | Biggest Questions | Trade Values Chart | Cut List | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | | | | Injuries, News & Notes | | | | Here are the top news items you need to know about from Tuesday, beginning with Miami's surprise QB change: | | Tua Tagovailoa will start for the Dolphins in Week 8 — You can check out my reaction to the news that Tagovailoa is replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick , but this is the CliffsNotes version: Tagovailoa could be as good as Fitzpatrick has been — and Miami moving him into the lineup even when Fitzpatrick is playing well and the team is over performing expectations is an indication of how confident they are in him — but he introduces some uncertainty into the situation. Tagovailoa is a must-add in all two-QB leagues, but in standard scoring formats, I would try to avoid everyone except for Myles Gaskin in Week 8 against the Rams when they return from the bye. Christian McCaffrey (ankle) will miss his fifth straight game — McCaffrey could be back for Week 8, but he is expected to miss Week 7 against the Saints. The Panthers get the Falcons on Thursday night next week, so you should have him back by then. Mark Ingram has a mid- to high-ankle sprain — The injury "isn't considered severe," per NFL Media's report, but that doesn't mean he won't miss time. Gus Edwards is a sneaky add this week in case he gets a shot at a bigger role in Week 8. Sterling Shepard (toe) was designated to return from IR — It still sounds like Shepard will be a game-time decision for Thursday night, and you shouldn't plan on using him for that matchup against the Eagles. But he might be worth an add to stash just in case he can provide a spark. There is no timetable for Rashaad Penny (knee, PUP) to return — Pete Carroll told reporters the team won't rush Penny back from his knee injury, and it's starting to look like he could miss most or all of the season while recovering. He isn't worth stashing outside of Dynasty leagues. DeSean Jackson (hamstring) is expected back Thursday — That was reported Sunday, though Jackson has remained limited Monday and Tuesday at practice. Even if he does return, Jackson won't be someone you want to rely on for Fantasy in Week 7, but he's worth stashing if he gets back to a full snap share quickly. Diontae Johnson (back) will practice Wednesday —Johnson sat out Week 6, but looks like he could make his way back for Week 7 against the Titans. Obviously, you'll want to see him get back to a full participant in practice this week, but it looks like you can tentatively count on Johnson being back in your lineup. | | | | Top buy-low targets | | | | Miss on your top waiver-wire target and have a hole to fill? Hit on your top waiver-wire target and looking to take advantage of someone else's desperation? Don't be afraid to take some risks in the trade market, because we're here to help. First up, head over to Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart for Week 7 to see how he values everyone, and then check out my five buy-low targets for this week below. | | Tyler Lockett — Lockett is still a top-12-ish WR in my eyes, but coming off a bye week and a couple of subpar games, he may not be viewed that way by everyone — especially with DK Metcalf playing so well so far. However, Lockett is neck and neck with Metcalf in targets so far, and is still sporting an excellent 9.0 yards per target with four touchdowns on 38 targets. He's still been his typically efficient self, but if anyone is panicking, now is the time to try to buy. Jonathan Taylor — Trading for players during their bye week is a great strategy if your team is sitting pretty at 5-1 or 6-0, and Taylor is a great target. He's been pretty good as a rookie, but not necessarily overwhelming, but the talent and opportunity is still there for him to be an elite Fantasy back, and the Colts schedule looks pretty great outside of Baltimore in Week 9 and Pittsburgh in Week 16. Worry about Week 16 when you get there, huh? David Montgomery — I keep saying Montgomery has a super valuable role, but I don't think the perception is there yet. Since Tarik Cohen's season-ending injury, Montgomery has 4.7 catches and 13 carries per game and has no competition for touches near the goal-line. He has just one touchdown in that span, but had 13.7 PPR points in Week 6 despite it. Nobody is excited about Montgomery right now, but I view him as a must-start Fantasy running back with much better days ahead of him, and you might be able to get him at a discount. If I could move Mike Evans for Montgomery and another piece, I would be thrilled, and I would do it even if it was just Evans for Montgomery. Marquise Brown — Brown is being treated like a No. 1 wide receiver by the Ravens, the results just haven't been there yet. He's on pace for 112 targets — an elite 25.9% share of the team's targets overall — and has a massive 16.0 yard average depth of target. He is seeing more, and more valuable targets this season, and there's a breakout coming. Heading into a bye week and coming off a lousy showing, this might be the perfect opportunity to buy Brown, and if all it took was a running back like J.K. Dobbins or Devin Singletary, I would do that. Joe Burrow — Burrow has been solid as a rookie, but there's a lot of room to grow, especially if he gets more games like Week 6 from A.J. Green moving forward. He's throwing the ball a ton, and doing so increasingly well of late — 7.6 yards per attempt over his past three games — but has just one touchdown on 105 attempts to show for it. As he continues to get more comfortable, better days are ahead for Burrow, who can probably be had for a low-end RB these days. I would definitely move a boring, low-upside piece like Adrian Peterson for him. | | | | Week 7 QB Preview | | | | Justin Herbert is back from bye, and he might be a top-seven QB for Week 7. That's how Heath Cummings has him ranked, anyway. You'll find a few unexpected names in the top-12 because of injuries and bye weeks, which makes those elite quarterbacks even more valuable than normal. | | Injuries: Baker Mayfield (ribs) and Sam Darnold (shoulder) Numbers to know: 6.1 — The Panthers have held opposing quarterbacks to 6.1 yards per attempt. No other defense is below 6.5. Drew Brees gets Michael Thomas back, but this looks like it could be a tough spot for him. Matchup that matters: Matthew Stafford vs. ATL — The Falcons are giving up 33.7 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and each quarterback has thrown for 300-plus yards against them. Stafford is set up for a big game. | | | Week 7 RB Preview
| | | | Injuries are going to be key in Week 7 — when aren't they? — because we're going to be missing Miles Sanders and Raheem Mostert, plus Joe Mixon is at least somewhat in doubt as you read this. | | Injuries: Miles Sanders (knee), Raheem Mostert (ankle), Dalvin Cook (groin), Joe Mixon (foot), Melvin Gordon (illness), Christian McCaffrey (ankle), Austin Ekeler (hamstring), Nick Chubb (knee), Mark Ingram (ankle), Leonard Fournette (ankle), Sony Michel (illness), Carlos Hyde (shoulder), Tevin Coleman (knee) and Jeff Wilson (calf) Number to know: 4.4 — Raheem Mostert leads the NFL in yards before contact. Whoever gets a majority of the touches in San Francisco should be a Fantasy starter. Jerick McKinnon is the favorite, but either Jeff Wilson or JaMycal Hasty could be a worthwhile flex starter. Matchup that matters: Justin Jackson vs. JAC — The Jaguars defense has been a mess, allowing the third-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs and most recently surrendering 164 rushing yards, 36 receiving yards and three touchdowns to the Lions. Jackson should get a ton of work as the Chargers lead back. | | Week 7 WR Preview | | | | OK, so Week 1 of the Andy Dalton Era in Dallas did not go well, and you might be panicking about CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Understandable, but don't just go benching everyone just yet — OK, Gallup is probably droppable. But Lamb and Cooper showed enough last week to earn at least another week to see if Dalton can get right. | | Injuries: Michael Thomas (ankle), Keenan Allen (back), DeVante Parker (groin), Darius Slayton (foot), Diontae Johnson (back), Sammy Watkins (hamstring), Allen Lazard (abdomen), Curtis Samuel (knee), Sterling Shepard (toe), Alshon Jeffery (foot) and DeSean Jackson (hamstring) Number to know: 31.8 % — Michael Thomas' target rate last season. Given that the Saints don't really throw all that much anymore and Drew Brees rarely takes deep shots, does Thomas' return mean Emmanuel Sanders and Tre'Quan Smith won't be Fantasy relevant? Probably. Matchup that matters: Terry McLaurin vs. DAL — The Cowboys aren't the worst defense against wide receivers, but the DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk just had 159 combined yards and two touchdowns on just 11 targets against them. McLaurin belongs in the must-start discussion most weeks, but he could be a top-five guy against this matchup. | | Week 7 TE Preview | | | | The gap between the haves and have-nots at tight end just keeps getting bigger, but at least you don't have to keep sinking your lineup with Zach Ertz this week. The bad news is the best options to replace him (Dallas Goedert and Trey Burton) aren't playing in Week 7, so you're going to have at least one more week with a weak spot in your lineup if you drafted Ertz. | | Injuries: Jonnu Smith (ankle), Zach Ertz (ankle), Noah Fant (ankle), Dallas Goedert (ankle), Mo Alie-Cox (knee), Tyler Eifert (neck) and Jordan Akins (concussion) Number to know: 31.8% — Ryan Tannehill's target share to tight ends. He peppered Anthony Firkser in Jonnu Smith's absence in Week 6, and if Smith's ankle keeps him out this week, it could be another busy game for Firkser. Matchup that matters: Anthony Firkser vs. PIT — The Steelers allow just 5.6 Fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including just a 50% catch rate overall. Position vs. tight end matchups are always tough to trust — there just aren't that many good tight ends, so the schedule can really skew things — but the Steelers have an elite defense in general and held Evan Engram, Noah Fant, Zach Ertz and Austin Hooper to 12 catches, 124 yards and one touchdown between them. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | UEFA Champions League | Want your sports news and highlights straight without the noise? Stream CBS Sports HQ on Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Apple TV, and more!
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