CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,062.17 -3.66%
Bitcoin (BTC): $70,079.42 -3.1%
Ether (ETH): $2,519.63 -4.34%
S&P 500: 5,705.45 -1.86%
Gold: $2,752.82 +0.38%
Nikkei 225: 38,053.67 -2.63%

A message from Morph

Bitcoin pared some of its losses, returning to $70,000 during the European morning after falling as low as $68,800. Still, BTC remained about 3% lower in the last 24 hours. Altcoins suffered greater losses, with the CoinDesk 20 Index's measurement of the broader crypto market down over 3.5%. Explanations for the slide range from profit-taking following the rally earlier in the week to a dip in Donald Trump's election victory odds on Polymarket. Traders have also been looking at tech earnings, tensions between Iran and Israel and a sharp rise in U.K. gilt yields following the roll-out of the government budget earlier this week, Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told CoinDesk.

Short-term holders of bitcoin sent more than $2.3 billion, some 32,000 BTC, to exchanges at a loss on Thursday as the price dropped below $70,000 after approaching an all-time high earlier this week. The panic selling was the most since Aug. 5's yen carry trade unwind. Short-term holders — investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days — tend to panic and sell when the price drops, and buy when there is euphoria or greed in the market. In total, they sent over 54,000 BTC to exchanges on Thursday, the highest amount since Mar. 27.

The odds on Kamala Harris winning next week's U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with some observers suggesting the increase reflects hedging positions among traders who've also bet on a victory for Donald Trump. Harris’ odds have risen to almost 39% from 33% on Oct. 30. Trump's odds dropped in tandem, suggestive of lower expectations of him winning, though at 61%, he's still the preferred candidate. The increase in the price for Harris’ shares could reflect traders buying them as a hedge on their Trump bets, market observers say, as some allege reports of voting irregularities pitted against Trump that could influence market bets.

The widely-watched Fear and Greed Index, a sentiment and volatility tracker for the crypto market, flashed “extreme greed” levels on Thursday, historically a sign of local tops.

The index aims to measure emotional responses in the market, highlighting that extreme fear might present buying opportunities, while extreme greed could signal an impending market correction. The index was flashing “greed” as of Asian afternoon hours Friday.

Price drops have caused pain for futures traders. Bets on bitcoin-tracked futures recorded $88 million in losses, CoinGlass data shows, followed by $44 million in liquidations on ether futures and nearly $15 million in losses each on SOL and DOGE futures.

Nearly 90% of all futures bets were bullish, or expecting higher prices over the weekend ahead of the U.S. elections on Nov. 5. Market conditions in the past few weeks, including global monetary policies and U.S. political support, indicated a continued bullish trend, with some traders targeting $80,000 for BTC in the coming weeks.

The liquidations came as bitcoin open interest hit record high levels earlier this week at over $43 billion, dropping to just over $41 billion early Friday.

- Jamie Crawley