Bitcoin recovered slightly as its halving event approaches, adding 5% over 24 hours. Ether also rose, rising 4% to $3,000. According to Laurent Kssis, a crypto ETP specialist at CEC Capital, the uptick for bitcoin will continue for U.S. markets and then readjust and push back to earlier levels. Bitcoin reached a weekly low of $58,800 this week and is currently approaching the $65,000 mark. The halving is predicted to take place late Friday or early Saturday UTC. The quadrennial event slows the rate of growth in bitcoin supply by 50%. Altcoins also gained, with dogwifhat (WIF) jumping 18%, Ethena Labs’ ENA 16% and Sei Networks’ SEI by 14%.

U.S.-based spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered outflows totaling $4.3 million on Thursday, extending a four-day run of withdrawals ahead of the supposedly bullish mining-reward halving. Since April 12, the ETFs have witnessed a cumulative net outflow of over $319 million, with Grayscale's GBTC accounting for a large share of the withdrawals, provisional data published by Farside Investors showed. On Thursday, GBTC lost $90 million in outflows, which was partially offset by inflows into Fidelity's FBTC and BlackRock's IBIT. The Grayscale ETF has experienced outflows since day one for several reasons, including the fund's relatively costly fees. So, while GBTC outflows may not be a cause for concern, the recent slower inflows into other ETFs might be.

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken is acquiring TradeStation Crypto, the digital asset-focused division of online brokerage TradeStation, to expand its regulatory licensing in the U.S. "We can confirm Kraken has recently purchased TradeStation's crypto business," a Kraken spokesperson said via email. "The transaction is part of our efforts to accelerate our U.S. presence and will unlock further growth and new product opportunities for Kraken in the U.S." The company declined to disclose the amount paid. The takeover hasn't previously been disclosed publicly. Florida-based TradeStation Crypto has acquired money transmitter and other types of regulatory licenses in most U.S. states over the past few years.

The probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged this year is rising.

Betters on blockchain-based betting site Polymarket now see a 32% chance of the Fed keeping the benchmark interest rate steady between 5.2% and 5.5% by the end of the year. That’s a significant change from the 7% probability seen nearly a month ago.

Meanwhile, punters see a 27% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut.

The hawkish shift in the market sentiment could damp the demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and technology stocks. According to some analysts, bitcoin’s (BTC) surge to record highs above $73,000 in the first quarter was primarily fueled by the anticipation of swift interest-rate cuts.

- Omkar Godbole