Finding opportunities where others ignore

Tuesday, 27 February 2024

[4 min read]

Dear Reader,

I’m writing this update sitting at a table of a local fish and chips store looking towards the ocean at Torquay, around 75 minutes’ drive from Melbourne.

As you know, I came to Melbourne for the launch of Gold Strike 2024 which kicked off last Thursday evening.

Thank you to those who participated. We fielded many questions at the live Q&A that followed the event.

If you want to find out about the not-to-be-missed opportunity to build a portfolio of gold explorers and early-stage developers before it goes on an anticipated bull run, click here to find out more!

Just remember, we’ll wrap up our event at midnight tonight so make sure you act quickly!

Living out a dream vs living in reality

As I sit here enjoying the light sea breeze and the relaxing atmosphere, I had a few insights relating to investing.

I thought about the contrast of Torquay with the bustling city of Melbourne. It’s similar to the Southern Highlands in New South Wales (where I live) and Sydney.

Different in terms of the environment (Torquay is a seaside village while the Southern Highlands is, as the name suggests, up in the mountains) but similar in terms of the contrasts that exist between them.

Many who live in Sydney and Melbourne look forward to spending a relaxing weekend in these places. They love strolling the quiet streets, checking out the wares in a Sunday market, sitting in a café enjoying the local delights, taking a dip in the crystal blue ocean or snuggling next to the fireplace to ward off the chilly Highlands night.

Some even talk about how they’d aspire to live there one day.

After they retired.

After the children have moved out.

After they win lotto.

It’s a dream to motivate them.

A carrot dangling in front of them to run towards.

But few bite the bullet or follow through until much later. By then, the novelty may’ve worn off.

Who can ‘buy low, sell high’ when it
comes to the crunch?

So how does this relate to investing?

It’s a well-known investment strategy to ‘buy low and sell high’.

It’s so simple.

But given the chance that such stocks are available, few people actually follow through.

Why?

There’re a myriad excuses for that.

The price fell for so long, it could keep falling.

I’ve bought in and I’m losing, I’m afraid it’ll go to zero.

Look at those hot stocks, they’re rising and everyone’s buying!

And so, many will stick to their comfort zone and let the dream remain a dream.

Just as city folks love their getaways and dream about living there one day, the ‘buy low, sell high’ mantra sounds great. But few will follow through when it comes to the crunch.

Someone else will fulfil that. And it’s a precious few!

A spectacular opportunity on offer!

Just so you know that I’m not merely bringing up the hypothetical, such opportunities exist for you right now to ‘buy low’ with the chance to ‘sell high’.

Most of you know that I’m talking about gold stocks.

They’ve been one of the most unloved assets around.

Not just unloved but ignored.

In the case of gold explorers and early-stage developers, they’ve been cast aside for almost three years.

Looking below, you’ll see gold hasn’t won the popularity contest in a while:

Gold explorers have been grinding lower ever since the massive rally from March to November 2020.

When that happened many gold explorers surged over 250%.

Note too, this is the average across the sector.

When the sector fired up, some explorers rose more than 1,000%!

And when they retreated, some fell as much as 70–90% from their highs.

You can see how the index bottomed last March. It bounced sharply in April before gradually building up a rally from July to December.

In this recovery, the leading explorers generated triple digit percentage returns.

But that could be the start of an emerging trend.

Yes, this year’s sell-off has trimmed those gains. In fact, some stocks are making new lows.

But can you see how this is presenting as a prime opportunity to ‘buy low’?

There aren’t many asset classes with this opportunity.

In short, here’s your chance to get in and set yourself up by being a contrarian investor!

Final chance for our special offer
on Gold Stock Pro

And if you’re worried about taking this risk alone, let me allay these fears.

With my premium gold stock speculation newsletter service, Gold Stock Pro, I’ll guide you on this journey.

I’ve lined up five ‘priority trades’ that you can make now. These five small-cap gold mining companies have quality assets and are positioned to move ahead of their peers when market sentiment turns around.

I’ll research the markets for you, identify the opportunities and risks and send you regular updates.

You’ll hear from me when I want you to buy or sell, including price targets.

I’ll do the hard work; all you need to do is follow my recommendations and (hopefully) reap the rewards.

Of course, there are no guarantees. Gold stocks are highly volatile and carry risks, but…

It’s why you should check out the Gold Strike 2024 event and see what we’re positioning for.

Remember the event closes at midnight tonight!

Too risky? Established gold producers
offer a good return too!

Perhaps you might find speculating in small-cap mining stocks prove too risky for you.

No problem!

The more established gold stocks are still attractively valued. They made a recovery last year but there’s still room to move, as you can see below:

As you can see, gold stocks are cheap relative to physical gold.

That to me looks like an opportunity.

If this interests you, check out my Gold Fever event which launched last week.

You can also find out more from my precious metals newsletter, The Australian Gold Report.

Rather than follow the crowd, why not try to build your dreams using a proven strategy?

Gold stocks!

This could be your chance to ‘buy low’. Now’s the time to seize that opportunity!

God bless,

Brian Chu,
Editor, Gold Stock Pro and The Australian Gold Report

Brian Chu is one of Australia’s foremost independent authorities on gold and gold stocks, with a unique strategy for valuing big producers and highly speculative explorers. He established a private family fund that only invests in ASX-listed gold mining companies, possibly the only such fund in Australia, putting his strategy and research skills to the test under public scrutiny. He currently writes two gold-focused investment advisories.

In his Australian Gold Report, Brian shows you a strategy for building long-term wealth in physical gold, along with a select portfolio of hand-picked stocks, mainly producers with proven revenue streams, chosen for their balance of risk and reward.

In his more specialised Gold Stock Pro service, Brian helps readers trade some of the most exciting, speculative gold mining plays on the ASX. He uses his proprietary system — based on the famous Lassonde Curve model, which tracks the life cycle of mining stocks. His aim is to help you get ready to trade the next phase of gold and silver’s anticipated longer-term bull market for opportunities to benefit.

[3 min read]

Dear Reader,

Is it really necessary to attack Kursk, and indeed in the east this year at all? Do you think anyone even knows where Kursk is? The entire world doesn't care if we capture Kursk or not. What is the reason that is forcing us to attack this year on Kursk, or even more, on the Eastern Front?

~ General Heinz Guderian

Military leaders are often blockheads. Civilian leaders are too. And when they get together what follows is rarely welcome. The military-industrial complex calls the shots; they are often fatal.

The US approaches what promises to be the most widely anticipated and most easily avoided crisis of its history. It owes $34 trillion. Soon – given current forecasts – the debt will grow to $40 trillion…and then to $50 trillion. No nation has ever survived such a huge debt load – not without bankruptcy, depression, serious inflation, revolution or war…sometimes all of them.

What follows, we believe, is why the US will be no exception.

Consensual Rules

Heinz Guderian was no fool. It was he who invented the Blitzkrieg…the use of tanks without infantry support to disrupt the enemies’ communications and create panic among their troops.

He was born in what is now known as Chelmno, Poland. But it was Prussian territory when he came into the world. And the Prussians had conquered it centuries before. Tough. Clever. They were the backbone of the Wehrmacht officer class. They were also the ones who had the most to lose in Hitler’s war against the Soviets. Their homeland was in the East, where it was most vulnerable to the Soviet Union.

Guderian’s family lost its home when Poland regained control of the area after WWI. Then, in 1939, Guderian took command of the XIX Army corp, spearheaded a drive into Poland, and ‘liberated’ his childhood home.

Ever since the rise of civilised societies, a major problem has been how to keep people like Heinz Guderian under control. By definition (ours) civilised societies prefer to settle their affairs without violence. They rely on “consensual rules,’ not brute force. People agree on what laws and regulations they will follow. They drive on the right…or the left… Women are allowed to appear in public without a headscarf – or not. They vote for their leaders – or not. Etc.

Armies are meant to project violence…not civilisation. They are the muscle of the State…expected to kill or be killed in order to promote the government’s agenda. But in the modern world, their tendencies towards murder and mayhem are supposed to be held in check by civilian command.

Unconditional Surrender

That’s what didn’t happen in Nazi Germany. Military and civilian power came together in the person of Adolf Hitler, who donned a field-grey uniform in September 1939. So it was that General Heinz Guderian found himself subordinate to the former corporal, now Fuhrer.

In 1943, Hitler was insisting that his tanks attack the Soviets at Kursk. Guderian opposed the campaign. After months of preparation and hesitation there was little hope of success. The Soviets already had the Germans’ battle plans and had already prepared for them. The Soviets’ could merely let the Germans exhaust themselves against their defences, and then, with more tanks and more men than the Wehrmacht could put into the field, they would counterattack. And that’s what happened.

By then, the Nazis were losing the war. The Allies were advancing through Sicily…and Italy was wobbling, preparing to hang Mussolini from a light post and welcome the invading US troops. The only real questions were when and how the end came.

Hitler was clearly an impediment to any decent solution…not only with his amateurish military commands; he also stood in the way of a negotiated settlement. In January of 1943, FDR announced that the allies would only accept an ‘unconditional surrender’.

Still, had Germany gotten rid of the Fuhrer, brought its troops back to Germany and promised never again to go on the warpath, it might have been possible to avoid total surrender and occupation.

Emperors, kings, and parliaments always struggled to keep their fighting men in line. They were expensive to keep in the field. And dangerous to keep too close to home. A powerful general might lead a coup d’etat against the civil authorities. That’s why Caesar was not supposed to come to Rome at the head of his army; the troops were meant to stay on the other side of the Rubicon river.

Caesar was popular with his troops. But even he had to face a mutiny, which he dealt with smoothly.

Unwarranted Influence

After William the Conqueror had taken control of most of England, he went back to Normandy, leaving his new kingdom with trusted subordinates. Alas, the army went wild – raping, pillaging, looting across much of the South of England. William returned to put them in order, but by then the English were so enraged that they rebelled…leading to further costly war.

Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor in 1527 was perhaps a less able commander; his troops went wild. It didn’t help that he neglected to pay them. They attacked Rome, looting, kidnapping, killing. Pope Clement VII escaped to the Castel Sant’Angelo. He survived by paying a ransom to the mutinous troops. But his Swiss Guard were annihilated.

What enables a civilian government to control its military? Money. Real money. Governments typically control the tax revenue…and use it to keep their fighting men on a short leash. But when the US switched to a ‘fake’ money – which it could create in seemingly boundless quantities – it also let loose the dogs of war. Pentagon budgets increased…even after 1991, when the Soviet Union disbanded. This left the military-industrial complex with billions in ‘excess’ funds, which they used to suborn Congress and corral the media, think tanks and universities.

Eisenhower was not merely spreading a ‘conspiracy theory’ when he warned that the firepower industry might soon exert an ’unwarranted influence’ on the civilian government; he was merely observing a trend. Powerful groups want more power. And unless they are constrained, they will get it.

Real money used to limit government spending – including the number one rat hole money goes down, the firepower industry. After 1971, Congress – richly lobbied by military suppliers – voted for one increase after another. Politicians tried to out-do each other by being ‘strong on defence.’ And today, it’s not the civilian leaders who hold their gunmen in check, it’s the military/industrial/spook/media complex that prevents the feds from heading off the coming catastrophe.

Regards,

Bill Bonner,
For Fat Tail Daily