Finding a Ben Franklin on the Sidewalk Imagine you're walking down the street and stumble across a $100 bill... You look around to see if anyone is searching for this money. No one is. So you decide to keep it. But how do you use it? Most of us would choose to spend it – almost right away. We'd take our spouse out for a nice dinner, buy some lottery tickets, or purchase a wish-list item that we've been eyeing for a while. Now, let's say you get an extra $100 from your employer because you worked on a holiday. In that case... most people hold on to it. It will go straight into a savings account or into an investment account. Why do we spend the $100 we found on the street differently than the extra $100 we earned at work? The answer is because of a behavioral bias called "mental accounting": treating money differently based on its intended use or where it came from. Economist Richard Thaler, who developed the concept of mental accounting, once ran an experiment where he asked a group of people two simple questions. Here's the first question... Imagine that you have decided to see a movie and have paid the admission price of $10 per ticket. As you enter the theater, you discover that you have lost the ticket. The seat was not marked, and the ticket cannot be recovered. Would you pay $10 for another ticket? Only 46% of the participants told Thaler they'd buy another movie ticket. Most said they'd skip the movie and go home. He then asked this question... Imagine that you have decided to see a movie where admission is $10 per ticket. As you enter the theater, you discover that you have lost a $10 bill. Would you still pay $10 for a ticket to the movie? Thaler found that 88% of respondents – nearly twice as many – said that they'd still buy the movie ticket. On a logical basis, these two answers are wildly inconsistent. In both scenarios, you're down $10. So the answers to both questions should be the same. However, because of the mental-accounting bias, we tend to categorize our money into different buckets. According to Thaler, we view going to the movies as a transaction in which we exchange the cost of a ticket for the experience of seeing a film. Buying a second ticket makes the movie seem too expensive, since a single ticket now "costs" $20. In contrast, since we don't post the loss of the cash to the mental account of the movie, we're still fine to spend $10 on a ticket. Fascinating, isn't it? Most of us are guilty of mental accounting... especially with our investments. We place a different value on money that we inherit versus money that we earn from our jobs. We place a different value on cash from tax refunds and end-of-year bonuses versus the cash in our 401(k). As a result, we invest money differently... Many studies have shown that people tend to label additional income either as "regular income" or as a "windfall gain." Folks are more likely to spend or aggressively invest windfall gains compared with regular income. You'll often see investors use their end-of-year bonuses to buy something speculative like cryptos. It's money that you were not expecting, so you might as well have some fun with it and gamble, right? We also mentally label money based on its intended use. For instance, you've probably said this once or twice in your life: "It's only my play money." When investors put "play money" into the markets, they often throw out all their normal investment rules – no protective stop losses, no sensible position sizing, etc... Your money is your money. While it's fine to set aside part of your wealth for speculations, that doesn't mean you benefit from throwing it carelessly away. We're several weeks into the new year. It's time to make some changes to how you perceive your money. Always remember that every dollar in your possession has the same value regardless of its origin or how you intend to spend it. Losing $1,000 in the stock market is the same as spending $1,000 to fix your car's transmission or losing a $1,000 wad of cash on the street. To overcome the mental-accounting bias, a great strategy is to follow proper asset allocation and diversification... something we'd recommend to help you keep your investment goals on track (for more reasons than this bias). It's a framework for how to invest the money you have – however you got it. But figuring out what to invest and how much money to put in each of your investments takes a lot of time and work. Recommended Link: | Trump's First Currency Shock You've probably heard all kinds of crazy predictions about what President Trump has planned for the financial system – like creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve... turning America into "the bitcoin capital of the world"... or even using bitcoin to pay off the national debt. But the truth is, all those wild predictions miss the REAL currency story that's about to define Trump's second term. (It has nothing to do with gold, oil, or the BRICS currencies.) We sent our in-house currency expert to the center of this story for all the details. He's posting his results for the first time right here. | |
---|
| Tomorrow night, you'll get total clarity about what to do in 2025 with your money. That's what you need right now in uncertain times... Not more single stock ideas, not new competing strategies and viewpoints, and not more analysis filling up your inbox. You need a crystal-clear gameplan for what to do with your money in 2025. That's exactly what this urgent announcement is all about: A way to position your entire portfolio properly to succeed this year... How to allocate your money properly to avoid taking big losses... Avoid feeling overwhelmed... And to feel good about how your money is set up. In fact, you'll get the only money move that the entire Stansberry Research team endorses, 100%. But you must add your name to the priority list to make sure you don't miss this announcement on Tuesday, January 28, at 8 p.m. Eastern time. Click here to reserve your spot now. Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement, Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team January 27, 2025 |