Federal Insider: Trump's budget plan brings uncertainty, layoff fears

Leave it to Donald Trump to bring a cold front to Washington’s warm winter.

His plan to cut $54 billion in domestic discretionary spending could make his hiring freeze look like a sunny day. Yet the president’s budget plans are so vague at this point, federal employees don’t know how to dress.

They should prepare for the worst. Taxpayers too.

“I don’t see how you do what he is proposing to do without RIFs (reductions in force) and layoffs,” said Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.), the ranking Democrat on the House Government Operations Subcommittee. “I think RIFs are inevitable.”

Trump’s budget plan is just a plan at this point, so feds don’t need to get another job yet.

One thing is certain — uncertainty is a big part of the problem. The huge proposed cut — Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney called it the “largest-proposed reduction since the early years of the Reagan administration” — generates more questions and anxiety.

“Uncertainty is the bane of efficient operations,” said Max Stier, president of the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, which studies the federal workforce. “You don’t want it.”

The hiring freeze Trump imposed in January is another source of uncertainty. It has no set end date. Trump’s hiring freeze memorandum says it will conclude when OMB implements “a long-term plan to reduce the size of the Federal Government’s workforce through attrition.”

“Attrition” does not mean layoffs. Yet, the magnitude of his proposed cuts mean RIFs can’t be ruled out.

Matt Biggs, legislative director of the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers, said his federal employee members fear the impact Trump’s budget could have on their agencies and their jobs. “Budget cuts and an otherwise undermining of their missions,” Biggs said, leave workers feeling “vulnerable.”

There is no way to manage the steep cuts Trump plans without pain. If RIFs don’t happen, there are other ways agencies can save money. None of them feel good. The hiring freeze could be extended. Another pay freeze could be imposed. Instead of layoffs, agencies could offer buyouts, potentially leading to workplace instability. All of these come with problems.