Yo! The FFT Newsletter is back in your inbox, and I come to you with a plan. What an exciting time!

This June, I'll lay out a multi-part series (I'm imagining 4-5 installments over the next 2-3 weeks) called "Fantasy Cheat Codes." I am just a man, not immune to attention-grabbing SEO opportunities. We'll discuss the trendy "league-winners" later this offseason too; please excuse me.

Part one of the cheat codes series drops today -- we're discussing QB Rushing. Rich Hribar (find Lord Reebs on X) originally introduced rushing quarterbacks as Fantasy cheat codes through the lens of the popular Nintendo-based "Konami Code," and an exploitable edge exists even today in drafting mobile QBs. How was Jayden Daniels' ADP not higher last year?! Recently, Ryan Heath ( find Ryan on X ) of Fantasy Points Data added to his "Statistically Significant" series with an article focused on QB runs. I'll reference his article multiple times in this newsletter.

Beyond today's newsletter and June's "Fantasy Cheat Codes" series, you'll find a whole lot more! So much content is coming your way!

I have yet to announce it online, so this is an exclusive whisper from me to you valued FFT Newsletter reader:

Beyond the Box Score gets its own podcast stream in July!

FIRE! The box score numbers look like hashmarks, it's so beautiful!

My younger sisters each brought life into the world this Spring, which is cool and all, but look at my baby! Dan and I are proud daddies and look forward to having all of you along for the ride as we see what lies beyond our previous lives as occasional FFT guests in search of something more. Beyond the Box Score baby, we take it big this year!

Okay, back to the newsletter news. Maybe video/audio isn't your thing and you print these newsletters out and read them with your morning funnies. Very cool, love that you are doing you and that you are here sharing this space with us!

Here's what's coming up next for FFT NL readers:

June -- Fantasy cheat code series

July -- Team-by-team previews are back babyyy every player every team let's get nuts

August -- Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts, Rankings, How to draft, Preseason film takes from yours truly, all the good stuff you need to find the next Bucky Irving, make the best pick in every round of your Fantasy draft, or pass the time as you count down the days until kickoff

Thank you for being here! Let's talk ball.

Ryan Heath's work is mysterious and important. Please allow me to decode. The numbers don't need to feel scary.

Below, you'll find two color-coded columns. The leftmost one, "Stickiness to Self," offers an illustration of how likely a stat may be to reproduce similar results year-over-year. Ryan's research shows that designed rush attempts and scramble rush attempts are significantly more likely to repeat than Fantasy Points (0.508), passing yards (0.472), or passer rating (0.372). No surprise. Quarterbacks who can do be running. I'd try to run away from 300 pound pass rushers if forced to face that scenario, no doubt.

Maybe surprising is the fact that designed rush attempts in a previous season correlated far more strongly with future Fantasy scoring than passing stats. The only stat that Ryan collected more capable of predicting future Fantasy scoring was previous Fantasy scoring. Those results can be found in the right column, by the way -- the table is sorted based on which stats tested as the most predictive of future Fantasy scoring.

Ryan's testing found that some nuance exists when comparing designed QB runs and scrambles. To quote him (the whole article is worth reading), "I'm comfortable saying designed runs and scrambles are roughly equally important and predictive."

QB rushing is where I start my pursuit of finding Fantasy quarterbacks each year. If I find myself gravitating towards a QB target who I don't believe offers the upside to be one of the best QB rushers any given year, I force myself to answer why.

Ryan's data encapsulates why that is my approach. I feel far more confident in my ability to predict QB rushing volume than QB passing efficiency. I want that baseline, I want a QB who I feel confident can contribute big rushing numbers. And maybe they provide passing efficiency on top of that! QB running was almost twice as likely to stick from one year to the next compared to passing touchdowns! Passing touchdowns aren't completely random, of course, but it's not easy to predict. JJ Zachariason does fantastic research to help us understand football trends and how Fantasy football is impacted, and in a recent episode of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast ( YouTube link) (Podcasts link), the topic of passing touchdown rates was discussed. It's an important stat that offers a simple and straightforward illustration of the volatility of touchdowns, and JJ's episode offers a cogent overview of how touchdown rate affects Fantasy football.

For Fantasy purposes, I attack the QB position with rushing at the front of my mind. It doesn't always work. Jayden Daniels was my top QB target last year, followed by Drake Maye and Anthony Richardson. A Rich most definitely did not work! But Daniels and Maye were both fantastic values!

To help you sort out your thoughts on QB rushing as we look to 2025 and beyond, I organized some collegiate and NFL data. None of the 'designed run' data will include kneel downs, sacks for college players, and aborted snaps.

(among QBs drafted since 2017)

Career CFB Scramble Rate:

14.7% - Malik Willis
14.1% - Jayden Daniels
13.9% - Jalen Hurts
11.4% - Justin Fields
11.1% - Jalen Milroe
11.1% - Drake Maye
11.1% - Matt Corral
10.9% - Dorian Thompson-Robinson
10.9% - Hendon Hooker
9.9% - Lamar Jackson
9.4% - Kyler Murray
8.9% - Anthony Richardson
8.7% - Sam Howell
8.0% - Spencer Rattler
7.9% - Brock Purdy
7.7% - Tyler Shough
7.7% - Desmond Ridder
7.6% - Shedeur Sanders
7.4% - Jaxson Dart
7.2% - Joe Burrow
7.0% - Josh Allen
6.6% - Will Levis
6.5% - Cam Ward
6.2% - Bryce Young
6.1% - Zach Wilson
5.7% - J.J. McCarthy
5.6% - Tua Tagovailoa
5.5% - Bo Nix
5.5% - Justin Herbert
5.5% - Baker Mayfield
5.1% - Joe Milton
5.0% - Sam Darnold
4.4% - Daniel Jones
4.4% - Dillon Gabriel
3.8% - Trevor Lawrence
3.4% - Jordan Love
3.3% - C.J. Stroud
2.4% - Will Howard

Some of the highest single-season CFB scramble rates for potentially Fantasy-relevant QBs:

21.1% - Justin Fields
15.4% - Drake Maye
15.2% - Jayden Daniels
14.3% - Jalen Milroe
14.0% - Jalen Hurts
11.9% - Tyler Shough
11.6% - Brock Purdy
9.9% - Lamar Jackson
9.2% - Kyler Murray
8.9% - Anthony Richardson
8.3% - Jaxson Dart
7.9% - Joe Burrow
7.8% - Bo Nix
7.0% - Josh Allen
7.0% - Bryce Young
6.7% - J.J. McCarthy
6.7% - Cam Ward
6.6% - Justin Herbert
6.1% - Tua Tagovailoa
5.7% - Trevor Lawrence
5.7% - Bo Nix

(among QBs drafted since 2017)

Career CFB Designed Run Rate:

23.4% - Jalen Hurts
22.5% - Lamar Jackson
20.4% - Jalen Milroe
19.7% - Hendon Hooker
18.5% - Anthony Richarsdon
18.1% - Malik Willis
17.5% - Will Levis
16.9% - Kyler Murray
16.7% - Will Howard
16.1% - Desmond Ridder
14.8% - Daniel Jones
13.2% - Justin Fields
12.7% - Josh Allen
12.4% - Jaxson Dart
12.1% - Matt Corral
11.9% - Joe Milton
11.3% - Jayden Daniels
10.6% - Dorian Thompson-Robinson
10.0% - Trevor Lawrence
9.9% - Bo Nix
9.7% - Zach Wilson
9.6% - J.J. McCarthy
9.3% - Baker Mayfield
9.1% - Tyler Shough
8.8% - Sam Howell
8.7% - Brock Purdy
8.7% - Joe Burrow
8.2% - Dillon Gabriel
8.1% - Drake Maye
7.2% - Jordan Love
5.2% - Justin Herbert
5.1% - Tua Tagovailoa
4.0% - Spencer Rattler
3.9% - Cam Ward
3.8% - Michael Penix Jr.
3.4% - Sam Darnold
3.0% - Shedeur Sanders
2.7% - C.J. Stroud
1.0% - Bryce Young

Best-season CFB Designed Runs Per Game:
(with designed rushing yardage in parentheses)

11.4 - Lamar Jackson (97)
10.9 - Jalen Hurts (70)
10.3 - Hendon Hooker (79)
9.2 - Jalen Milroe (55)
9.1 - Will Levis (31)
8.2 - Daniel Jones (41)
7.6 - Will Howard (45)
6.9 - Malik Willis (60)
6.3 - Jaxson Dart (39)
5.9 - Kyler Murray (49)
5.8 - Tyler Shough (28)
5.1 - Anthony Richardson (46)
5.1 - Jayden Daniels (50)

(among QBs drafted since 2017)

I only have this data dating back to 2017, so Lamar Jackson's listed stats here only include his final season at Louisville. Below, I highlighted a few metrics that stood out, with pink signifying something good and purple signifying something potentially suspect about a player's rushing production.

I can't tell if my brain latches onto negativity pertaining to Bo Nix, or if there have actually been several red flags presenting themselves during my offseason research. I was dubious of Nix's skill set translating well as a pro, so it's certainly possible that there is some remaining bias that I haven't shaken off. I've tried! Anyway, Nix ran for a lot of yards but did not put up standout advanced rushing metrics.

I rewatched his top 30-ish runs (sorted by EPA) from Nix's rookie campaign. He's a competent play extender as a pocket escape artist and has decent mobility and vision to create occasional explosive plays with his legs who does a good job of protecting his body and getting down early. Nix almost never attacks a defender to create extra yards. No shade to him, most quarterbacks do not. If putting Nix's rushing upside in the same tier as Drake Maye, then comparing advanced rushing efficiency is here to help. There's a clear difference.

J.J. McCarthy may prove to offer similar or even more rushing upside than Nix, if comparing dual-threat quarterbacks from the 2024 class. He ranks eighth in yards after contact per rush and fourth in avoided tackle rate among quarterbacks drafted since 2017!

Scramble Rate Leaders:

12.5% - Jayden Daniels
11.4% - Malik Willis
10.8% - Drake Maye
9.7% - Justin Fields
8.9% - Jalen Hurts
8.4% - Brock Purdy
8.4% - Lamar Jackson
8.2% - Bryce Young
8.0% - Josh Allen
7.8% - Bo Nix
7.4% - Caleb Williams
7.1% - Anthony Richardson
6.7% - Kyler Murray
6.5% - Baker Mayfield
6.0% - C.J. Stroud
5.7% - Patrick Mahomes
5.4% - Justin Herbert
5.2% - Russell Wilson

Best-season (2020-24 data) Scramble Rates:

15.6% - Justin Fields (2022)
12.5% - Jayden Daniels (2024)
12.1% - Lamar Jackson (2023)
10.8% - Drake Maye (2024)
9.9% - Daniel Jones (2022)
9.9% - Jalen Hurts (2021)

Hurts did not have enough dropbacks to qualify, but his 13.5% scramble rate as a rookie stood out and made me curious what the career arc looks like for QBs who lean on scrambling early in their career. The numbers that I'm about to outline might not feel perfectly fair as comparisons to Jayden Daniels, since he was much more competent as a passer in his first season. Daniels did not need to lean on scrambling in the same way that many of these players did. Still, we have precedence for declining scramble rates:

Jalen Hurts scramble rates year-over-year
(Fantasy rushing points per game in parentheses)

2020 - 13.5% (3.3 as a part-time player)
2021 - 9.9% (9.2)
2022 - 8.3% (10.3)
2023 - 7.7% (8.5)
2024 - 8.9% (9.7)

Justin Fields scramble rates year-over-year
(Fantasy rushing points per game in parentheses)

2021 - 12.9% (4.3 as a part-time player)
2022 - 15.6% (10.8)
2023 - 9.4% (6.8)
2024 - 9.7% (5.9)

Lamar Jackson scramble rates year-over-year
(Fantasy rushing points per game in parentheses)

2018 - 8.8% (6.1 as a part-time player)
2019 - 8.7% (10.7)
2020 - 11.5% (9.4)
2021 - 10.9% (7.1)
2022 - 6.9% (7.7)
2023 - 12.1% (7.0)
2024 - 8.4% (6.6)

Even with his 30's approaching, Lamar Jackson keeps churning out high scramble rates. His rushing Fantasy production was the lowest its been since his rookie season and his scramble rate was the second-lowest of his career in 2024, but still, his designed rushing remains intact.

Josh Allen scramble rates year-over-year
(Fantasy rushing points per game in parentheses)

2018 - 12.1% (9.1)
2019 - 8.5% (6.4)
2020 - 4.8% (5.4)
2021 - 7.2% (6.5)
2022 - 8.7% (7.4)
2023 - 7.7% (8.3)
2024 - 8.0% (7.4)

Allen's first season was clearly his most-active as a rusher, but he's still producing massive Fantasy rushing output because he's simply unbelievably efficient as a rusher.

Russell Wilson scramble rates year-over-year
(Fantasy rushing points per game in parentheses)

2012 - 10.5% (4.6)
2013 - 10.2% (3.7)
2014 - 9.5% (7.6)
2015 - 9.6% (3.7)
2016 - 5.6% (2.0)
2017 - 8.5% (4.8)
2018 - 6.0% (2.4)

Maybe Russell Wilson is the best comp for Daniels. He was competent as a passer early on, so he didn't have to lean any extra on his legs to create offense. His early-career run rates feel like they simply aligned with his athleticism and didn't drop-off until Year 5.

These career arcs might be relevant for Maye, too. It's quite possible that we see his scramble rate decline in a significant way if Josh McDaniels incorporates more easy-outs with passes to the RB position. It is possible that we could see more designed rushing for Maye to offset any dip in scrambling, though!

Designed Rush Rate Leaders:

20.4% - Jalen Hurts
18.4% - Justin Fields
18.4% - Anthony Richardson
15.6% - Lamar Jackson
14.6% - Malik Willis
12.6% - Daniel Jones
11.1% - Jayden Daniels
10.2% - Dorian Thompson-Robinson
10.0% - Josh Allen

Designed Runs Per Game:
(with designed rushing yardage in parentheses)

6.0 - Jalen Hurts  (18 yards)
5.3 - Anthony Richardson (29)
4.8 - Lamar Jackson (30)
4.3 - Daniel Jones (18)
3.9 - Justin Fields (18)
3.7 - Jayden Daniels (17)
3.0 - Josh Allen (9)
1.8 - Kyler Murray (13)
1.6 - Bo Nix (4)
1.5 - Caleb Williams (6)

Those were the only quarterbacks to average more than two yards per game on designed runs. No Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, or Joe Burrow, even though their collegiate rushing profiles were decent!

Best-season (2020-24 data) Designed Runs Per Game:
(with designed rushing yardage in parentheses)

7.1 - Cam Newton in 2020 with Josh McDaniels calling plays (27 yards)
6.7 - Lamar Jackson in 2020 (47 yards)
6.7 - Jalen Hurts in 2022 (27 yards)
5.7 - Justin Fields in 2023 (29 yards)
5.3 - Anthony Richardson in 2024 (29 yards)
4.5 - Kyler Murray in 2020 (25 yards)
4.3 - Daniel Jones in 2024 (18 yards)
3.7 - Jayden Daniels in 2024 (17 yards)
3.4 - Josh Allen in 2021 (18 yards)

From a QB rushing profile perspective -- not as a stylistic comparison -- Jayden Daniels looks the most similar to Josh Allen among recent elite-level dual threats. They've been more reliant on scrambling than Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields.

Kyler Murray had his highest scramble rate since 2020 and averaged a career-high 7.3 yards per rush in 2024. His designed runs have been on a steady decline as he ages through his late 20's, though.

You may have noticed that his 6.7% scramble rate wasn't all that high, though. Baker Mayfield (6.5%) had a similar rate, both Bo Nix (7.8%) and Caleb Williams (7.4%) had higher rates. I bring this up because Murray often gets placed in the same tier as the elite rushing quarterbacks. I just don't see it. His rushing efficiency will likely drop after averaging over seven yards per carry. His scramble rates are fine but not great, and his designed rushes are disappearing. Combine 2023-24 data, and Murray ranks as QB17 out of 35 qualifiers in Fantasy points per dropback.

Jayden Daniels was in a league of his own as a scrambler in 2024. Dating back to 2000, Justin Fields and Mike Vick are the only players to top the 595 rushing yards that Daniels compiled on scrambles. Vick, Josh Allen, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson are the only others to top 500.

Drake Maye averaged 34.9 scramble yards per healthy game, actually putting him in the same ballpark as Daniels (41.4). Maye is a stud. Below, you'll find scramble efficiency stats from 2024.

I'd love to see Caleb Williams settle down and feel comfortable in the pocket. This chart illustrates what felt pretty apparent as I watched every Williams rookie season dropback -- he often ran himself into trouble. Of course, when a near-record-breaking number of sacks are recorded, there's not just one person or unit of people to shoulder all of the blame. You can watch all of Williams' rookie sacks here if you'd like .

The best version of an offense with Williams at the helm probably does not involve him being under such duress. Still, we did see him succeed as a rusher because of the frantic state of mind that the rookie season circumstances pushed him into. Williams was basically on-par with Daniels as a scrambler.

Anthony Richardson could be cool!

It's an absolutely brutal time to be a Richardson believer, believe me. It's not quite Kyle Pitts-levels of down bad, but a lot of the feelings are the same!

Even for as bad as it's been from a real-life quarterbacking standpoint, Richardson ranks as the QB4 in Fantasy points per dropback since entering the league. He was QB8 last year.

These splits are affected by goal line rushing. The avoided tackle rates for Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts clearly illustrate that. So, I removed any runs where three or fewer yards were needed to gain a first down and holy Drake Maye what a time to be way overweight on the fun young Patriots QB in Dynasty Fantasy football.

Here's my latest podcast appearance, if you want to give that a listen! Thanks again for being here!