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Thursday, July 3, 2025 |
The use of play action and/or pre-snap motion have been adopted more each year as a cheat code capable of boosting the pass and run game. Even as common knowledge in the year 2024, both continued to boost efficiency. And there's still an edge to be found in targeting players from offenses that utilize these cheat codes well. |
Our third Fantasy football cheat code installment will highlight which teams are using play action and pre-snap motion the most with emphasis on some players who might be values for Fantasy football purposes. |
Fantasy Cheat Code #3 -- Keep it movin! |
Keep the defense's eyes moving. Keep the field feeling open and fluid, as if any blade of grass can and will be attacked. Whether before or at the snap with a motion man or after the snap with play action or run/pass options -- today, we are focusing on the importance of movement. Maybe you've been sitting for over 90 minutes upon reading this. This might be a great time for a water break! We might be here for awhile! Let's keep it movin! |
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Play Action |
Here's a look at the teams that recorded the most total play action dropbacks in 2024, along with the Fantasy point per target rate recorded on those dropbacks: |
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The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions created wildly efficient targets from play action. Over the past five seasons, among offenses with 150+ play action dropbacks (17 teams hit that mark in 2024, for reference), the top-five includes two Kevin O'Connell-coached teams and two Ben Johnson-designed offenses. |
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Shoutout Matt LaFleur, always. Please get back to trusting the pass game! |
Detroit Lions (and the Ben Johnson effect on the Chicago Bears) |
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The fit feels so perfect for Colston Loveland. As Ben Johnson put it, "match made in heaven." And then there's the Caleb Williams part of the equation. As a rookie, Williams was way better with play action. There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about what Ben Johnson can do for this offense, and play action tops the list. |
Chicago's run game will almost certainly not pose the type of threat that Detroit's did in 2024, but the Lions ranked second in play action Fantasy points produced in 2022 with D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in the backfield! Ben Johnson may just be a superstar. |
Washington Commanders |
No team produced more Fantasy points on run/pass options (RPO) than Kliff Kingsbury's Commanders in 2024. Washington ranked fifth in RPO dropbacks. |
League-wide, RPO only produce a pass attempt 22% of the time. The Commanders had a 20% pass rate on RPO, with the bulk of the Fantasy points on these plays being scored by Brian Robinson (fifth in the NFL in Fantasy points on RPO) and Jayden Daniels (20 RPO rush attempts), but it's worth noting that Terry McLaurin did benefit too. Scary Terry caught 10 of 11 RPO targets for 91 yards and a score. Prior to 2024, he had just 14 career RPO targets to his name. RPO targets are Fantasy floor-raisers, they are built-in targets with a high probability of resulting in a reception. McLaurin's target per route run rate on non-RPO plays in 2024 was actually slightly lower than it was in 2023. But, his overall target rates were up in 2024. RPO's were the change. |
Los Angeles Chargers |
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According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Justin Herbert had the second-highest highly-accurate throw rate on play action passes in 2024, behind only Tua Tagovailoa. Tua's average depth of target (aDOT) was 5.9 yards on PA throws. Herbert's (8.6 yards) was the fifth-highest in the league. And still, he was second in highly-accurate throw rate and third in catchable ball rate. |
Herbert was QB1 in highly-accurate throw rate on play action dropbacks in 2023. He was QB1 in 2022, too. Combining him with Omarion Hampton and McConkey is devious work. |
If a defense is going to have any prayer of slowing Ladd McConkey down, that needs to be their primary focus. In 2024, none of the other Chargers pass-catchers posed much of a threat, so that was often the case. But on play action dropbacks, more moving parts were added to the equation. Even just a momentary lapse is enough to lose a battle vs. one of the most vicious and unforgiving route-runners in the world. I'm excited to see what Year 2 for McConkey holds with Hampton, Tre Harris, and even more cool rookie talent added to the Chargers offense might look like! |
Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers |
Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are omnipresent in today's newsletter. As a quick highlight, only two qualified pass-catchers averaged more yards per route run on play action plays than McConkey in 2024: |
2024 PA YPRR Leaders: (Minimum 50 PA routes) |
5.52 - George Kittle 5.07 - Puka Nacua 4.28 - Ladd McConkey |
Nico Collins (4.20) was the only other player above 4.00! Nacua and Kittle were above 5.00! Pairing mythical beasts with legendary wizards at playcaller is unfair, and both players remain Fantasy football cheat codes for as long as health supports it. |
Miami Dolphins |
Jaylen Waddle saw 20 RPO targets in 2021 and has only 16 combined in the three years following. Across Tyreek Hill's first two seasons in Miami (2022-23), an absurd 130 play action targets were funneled HIll's way. CeeDee Lamb (98) was the only other player with 90+ play action targets during that time. Hill compiled a 39% target per route run rate and 4.43 yards per route run on play action dropbacks across the 2022-23 seasons. |
In 2024, Hill's rates dropped to 26% and 2.89. The highest TPRR on play action dropbacks belonged to Jonnu Smith (34%). I wonder if this was a one-year blip, or if we might see a shift in the design of Miami's target distribution to shorter route concepts. This offense has produced more play action targets than any other over the past three seasons. Will those targets be hyper-concentrated on Hill again in his age-31 season? Where do Jonnu Smith's vacated targets go? Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington are my best guesses as beneficiaries of more opportunities, but it's also possible that this is all a screaming signal that Hill is in store for a bounce-back if the offensive environment returns to normalcy. |
Cleveland Browns |
The Kevin Stefanski effect is real. Play action is a huge part of this offense and boosts what is otherwise a horrendous passing game. Typically, Stefanski's play action target distribution focuses on two key pieces. In 2024, Cedric Tillman only had nine play action targets. Ancillary pieces typically miss out on the PA goodness. |
Tillman's non-PA per-route rates were right on par with Jeudy's in 2024. He's a decent player, but he's asked to simply go win, mostly on the perimeter. For Fantasy purposes, the players you want (if any) from this offense are the obvious ones. |
The presence of Quinshon Judkins could boost the play action game, as the offense will presumably be centered around the workhorse RB. Maybe we'll see last year's inefficient per-target rate increase! If drafting anyone from Cleveland, my money is on David Njoku as a value TE. |
Denver Broncos |
Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Bo Nix struggled with accuracy on play action throws as a rookie. But, only Jared Goff (15) threw more PA touchdowns than Nix (14) and Sam Darnold (14). A good play-designer/play-caller is a helluva drug, and it's the primary reason I remain unhealthily enamored with RJ Harvey. I think about him every day. |
Javonte Williams leads all running backs with 54 play action targets over the past two seasons. Breece Hall (46) is the only other RB with more than 40. League-wide, play action targets to the RB position have been worth 1.70 PPR points over the past two years, compared to 1.51 on non PA passes to an RB. |
As for the non-RB who benefited the most from Payton spamming PA passes in 2024, Courtland Sutton's target share was the highest its been since his breakout in 2019. In Payton's first year in Denver, the play action game centered around Jerry Jeudy and the RB position. Sutton finished 2023 with 12 PA targets. He had 36 PA targets in 2024. As a result, his overall target share rose from 18.9% to 24.6%. |
Minnesota Vikings |
Jordan Addison has feasted on play action deep shots vs. single coverage thanks to the blessing of playing alongside Justin Jefferson in Kevin O'Connell's offense. For his career, 28% of Addison's routes, 32% of his targets and 40% of his touchdowns have come on play action dropbacks. |
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Feels good to work with Kevin O'Connell! |
Arizona Cardinals |
Trey McBride ranked 13th in play action receiving yardage in 2024, and Marvin Harrison Jr. ranked 17th. MHJ averaged 2.45 yards per route run on PA dropbacks, compared to just 1.35 on non PA dropbacks. It's also noteworthy that James Conner is RB3 in play action targets over the past two seasons. Drew Petzing's offensive design creates PA targets for the RB position, which might matter if Trey Benson fill-in duty every becomes a reality. It would appear that this offense has built-in RB targets, even if Kyler Murray doesn't target the position at an exceptionally high rate otherwise. |
Indianapolis Colts |
Michael Pittman benefitted in a massive way from RPO targets with Shane Steichen scheming up an offense to cater to Gardner Minshew's skill set in 2023. Those evaporated with the offense designed for Anthony Richardson in 2024. Pittman had 30 RPO targets in 2023 but just five in 2024. |
Still, Pittman was the focus of the PA dropback game. |
Play action targets in 2024: |
34 - Pittman 28 - Alec Pierce 17 - Adonai Mitchell 14 - Josh Downs |
That Josh Downs number seems awfully low! That's because Indy rarely used play action when operating out of three receiver sets. Downs only participated in 40% of Indy's play action dropbacks in 2024. |
If PA routes are removed, Downs had the highest target per route run rate in the league (minimum 200 non-PA routes). Downs is lightning in a bottle, he's nearly impossible to cover. When operating from a straight dropback game, Indy's quarterbacks locked in on him as a route-winner. |
What if the Colts design more targets to Downs, and he continues to be an ever-present route-winner? What if the offense is forced into more three-receiver sets and passing situations? Low-key, betting markets are expecting Indy's 2025 to be a struggle. The Patriots have a higher implied point total. The only offenses with a lower implied point total are the Raiders, Jets, Saints, Giants, Titans, and Browns. |
Wan'Dale Robinson saw 140 targets last year. Downs had 107. What if this turns into a higher-than-expected dropback offense operated by Daniel Jones while often chasing points? Downs with 140 targets might set Fantasy football on fire. |
If curious which receivers benefited the most from play action targets in 2024, here's your list. Xavier Worthy is the one who stands out to me. Rashee Rice had a 33% target per route run rate on play action dropbacks in 2024 and an early 50% rate before his 2024 injury. |
Pre-Snap Motion Can Boost the Run Game |
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(This remains one of the craziest photos of my recent sports memory) |
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Pre-snap motion doesn't necessarily boost the run game. League-wide, the boost provided to passing is much more noticeable. Some offenses have incorporated it as an important part of their whole, though. |
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Below are 2024 pre-snap motion rates on designed runs (not including scrambles) |
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Kansas City Chiefs |
Andy Reid designed 14 motion-based handoffs to Xavier Worthy, a number only topped once (Tyreek Hill had 19 in 2018) during his tenure with the Chiefs. Worthy scored a not-insignificant 20.3 PPR points on these opportunities. Outside of those plays, the run game was still inefficient (3.8 yards per) on motion runs, albeit slightly more efficient than on static runs. Isiah Pacheco has a 4.5 yard per motion run rate over the past two seasons, compared to 4.0 on static runs. |
Andy Reid is a master of his craft, and the more tools he has at his disposal the better. The Chiefs were one of 11 offenses with a rush success rate of 40% or better in 2024, even with injuries at RB and on the line. This offense could very well be one of the best in the league again if healthy in 2025. |
Atlanta Falcons |
Speaking of success rate, let me quickly define it: |
First or second down success = gaining half the distance needed to first |
Third or fourth down success = gaining a first down |
It's not a perfect stat. It aims to capture consistency in doing the most important thing, marching towards scoring distance. |
In 2024, Bijan Robinson was responsible for 199 successful offensive touches, tying Christian McCaffrey's highest mark from the past 10 seasons. And you might counter: "well, CMC has been on some awfully bad teams!" It's a fair point -- first downs have been tough to come by for members of the Carolina Panthers. But were the Atlanta Falcons really some juggernaut in 2024? Wait, were they? |
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The Falcons posted a 49% rush success rate on RB runs in 2024. The Commanders were a distant second at 45%. The league average was 38.6%. |
If we zoom out, we find the 2024 Falcons still at the top of the leaderboard over the past 10 seasons. Second place was the 2017 New England Patriots (Super Bowl appearance). Third was the 2018 Rams (Super Bowl appearance). |
In his first season as Atlanta's play-caller, Zac Robinson was able to emulate similar success to McVay while sticking to a lot of the same principles as his prodige. |
Miami Dolphins |
Here's a wild stat -- the Dolphins were only slightly better on runs not involving pre-snap motion in 2023 (3.3 yards per) than in 2024 (2.6). During the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins have averaged 3.0 yards on a sample size of 268 static rush attempts. That's not a small sample! |
For comparison, Kyle Shanahan's lowest single-season rate (since 2017) is 2.9, and his average is 3.7 yards per static rush. His offense is predicated on motion and has been notably more efficient (4.8 yards per) on runs involving pre-snap motion, but the discrepancy is nowhere near as wide as McDaniel's (4.9 yards per motion run). |
Same goes for McVay -- his lowest single-season static yards per rush is 2.9. In seven seasons, McVay has had just two finishes below 3.5 yards per static rush, and his average is 3.9. He's used motion to help his run game and even buoy it with Kyren Williams not running as effectively (and the offensive line struggling with health) in 2024, but no coordinator has been as sensitive to pre-snap motion's impact on the run design as McDaniels. |
Los Angeles Rams |
This quote from Sean McVay about Liam Coen has me excited to see what new wrinkles might present in the 2025 Rams run game. That was followed by the Rams aggressively targeting Jarquez Hunter in the NFL Draft. Stylistically, Hunter profiles as a significantly different type of runner than the preexisting players in LA's backfield. I'm curious if he's the "variety" that McVay alluded to desiring. |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
Coen's Bucs had an unusually run-leaning discrepancy when it came to motion use in 2024. Tampa Bay's pre-snap motion rate on runs was 62%, compared to 48% on passes. |
Bucky Irving gained a full yard on his per rush average on motion runs (5.8) compared to static runs (4.8). I'm excited to see what Coen can do for a Jags offense that ranked 31st in pre-snap motion rate on runs. |
Pre-Snap Motion Continues to Boost the Pass Game |
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Here's a look at pre-snap motion rates on QB dropbacks in 2024: |
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And here's a look at the teams that recorded the most total dropbacks involving pre-snap motion in 2024: |
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Bobby Slowik had me fooled! The 2023 Texans used the cheat codes liberally and found success in the pass game. In particular, Houston was wildly effective in the play action dropback game. Turns out everyone involved was simply riding the high of being in the presence of Nico Collins. |
It's hard to know exactly how much Slowik is to blame, especially without knowing where responsibility for the offensive line struggles lie. The Texans came crashing to Earth in 2024, though, and not for lack of trying. Houston ranked third in dropbacks involving pre-snap motion, but only averaged 1.54 Fantasy points per target on those dropbacks, compared to 1.86 in 2024. |
Maybe this is a cautionary tale not to get too carried away with any of the cheat codes that I'm highlighting in this space. For every Jayden Daniels league-winning cheat code at QB, there's probably someone suffering from Anthony Richardson exposure. How did chasing Tyjae Spears target upside go in 2024? |
If I were to guess as to who is the most-likely to be fraudulent in a similar way to the 2023 Texans, when looking at 2024 motion and play action data, I'd point to the Miami Dolphins. Maybe Liam Coen or Zac Robinson are who you'd guess -- they have less experience -- but both put together such fantastic run games in 2024. McDaniels showed some red flags last year. While Matt LaFleur was fully capable of patch-working an offense without Jordan Love, the same was not true for McDaniels without Tua. The show completely fell apart without a lead magician to perform the usual tricks. The Dolphins very well may get back on track in 2025. The talent is there. But 2024 showed us that cracks exist in this foundation. And after a look under the hood, the complete inability to run the ball without the use of pre-snap motion is concerning. The stark splits for Waddle and Hill on play action dropbacks is concerning. Defenses have so much film on this offense by now. Hopefully McDaniels has new tricks to unveil. |
Alright, that was a quick aside. The Texans keep catching my eye. Let's finish up with a few more player highlights, as it relates to pre-snap motion. Below, you'll find the players who scored the most PPR points in pre-snap motion in 2024. |
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Puka Nacua is everything |
I've seen Scott Barrett joke (I'm pretty sure) online about Nacua being a product of his system. And to some extent, he is. McVay is a master, and he knows how to maximize his resources. Nacua was targeted over half of the time when used in pre-snap motion, AND he received 10 hand-offs as a motion player. |
This ain't Rashee Rice, though. No disrespect to Rice, he's great at what he does. We're not talking about Deebo Samuel here, we're not talking about Marvin Mims efficiency. Nacua averaged 3.12 yards per route run when not used in motion. That's the highest rate in the NFL. He's unbelievably good, and getting him paired up with a play-caller of McVay's competency feels akin to true Fantasy cheat codes such as George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Julio Jones, Davante Adams in Green Bay, or Cooper Kupp before Nacua. We're looking at hall of fame upside if Nacua can remain healthy and compile ridiculous stat totals throughout his prime. |
The Bengals have resorted to cheating |
And you love to see it if you are a Ja'Marr Chase drafter. |
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Justin Jefferson is allowed to move before the snap?! |
Okay, it's one thing for us to use these cheat codes for Fantasy football purposes. So what if we cheat? We're just taking money from our friends and random strangers on the internet that we'll never meet. But Kevin O'Connell gets to design routes where Justin Jefferson is on the move and in a condensed formation that includes Jordan Addison as a deadly deep threat and T.J. Hockenson as a zone coverage surgeon? That shouldn't be allowed! |
Jefferson shattered his previous career-high (54) with 100 pre-snap motion routes in 2024. Since Addison's arrival, KOC has designed more and more plays that involve condensed (or "bunch") formations with multiple pass-catchers in the same vicinity at the snap of the ball. It's a defensive nightmare. J.J. McCarthy is set up so well. |
Brock Bowers was deadly in motion, but how woke are Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly to the new age cheat codes? |
Back in his day, Chip Kelly knew a little something about cheat codes. His offenses played with blistering pace, but pre-snap motion wasn't all that prevalent. Unfortunately, I don't have motion data from back then. I watched a bit of the 2013 Eagles down-to-down series for fun and it was almost entirely static. |
The times have changed, and Kelly's Ohio State Buckeyes used motion at a slightly higher rate (44%) on passes than the CFB average (39%) in 2024. When sending a player into motion pre-snap, Kelly's offense targeted that player 26.8% of the time. That rate registered just above CFB average (26.2%) but well above the 2023 Buckeyes (18.8%) who were not coached by Kelly. |
Emeka Egbuka -- Kelly's most-used motion player -- registered a 35% TPRR as the motion man. So we have some precedent for Kelly using motion to create targets for a playmaker. Egbuka was used significantly more in motion in 2024 than ever before. |
Only two tight ends have recorded 100+ routes as a pre-snap motion player over the past five seasons. Bowers absolutely could offer the legendary TE upside that Kelce previously delivered. |
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What produced in 2024 was rare for any TE, let alone a rookie. When his QB play is factored in, it's hard to believe. You can watch every rookie season opportunity that Bowers received here, if you'd like. So often I noticed myself thinking "Geno makes that play." And that does not even take into account the fact that Geno might be the most aggressive QB in the NFL when it comes to trying to make that play -- there were probably tons of opportunities to attempt to get Bowers the ball that his QB room simply wasn't confident enough to go for. Geno will go for it. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had three games with double-digit receptions last year. He went for 250 PPR points in his second season with far more target competition than Bowers has. And Bowers is a better player. Geno has fed DK Metcalf target totals of 15, 14, 14, 12, 12, and 11 at various points across the three seasons. I'm sorry, but DK Metcalf is not as good of a route-winner as Bowers. He's way more difficult, stylistically, to design targets for. And he got force-fed by Geno. |
There are so many ways to get Bowers the ball. I'm expecting Geno Smith to unlock his full potential in Year 2, and I don't feel comfortable putting any sort of cap on what that might look like. Bowers could lead the entire league in targets. There's no reason to cling to previous norms at the TE position. Bowers is unlike anything we've seen. That's what his collegiate data told us. That's what his rookie season data told us. He's unique as a player. If that talent meets creative play-design and competent QB play, the efficiency numbers for Bowers might be beyond anything we've seen at the TE position. |
Malik Nabers |
When not in motion, Malik Nabers had a 27.3% TPRR and 1.98 YPRR. Solid. Especially for a New York Giant, that's really great stuff for a rookie. When used in motion, Nabers was targeted on 54% of his routes! His rate was above Puka's! |
I'd love to see more in 2025. Nabers had 72 routes as a pre-snap motion player. Wan"Dale Robinson had 95. Maybe after his first full offseason, Nabers will be used in a wider variety of ways as a weapon in Year 2. |
Jayden Reed is a deadly player with the ball in his hands, AND he's a very good route runner! Please don't typecast him, Matt LaFleur! |
Jayden Reed was wildly efficient with his rookie pre-snap motion opportunities (not quite to the extent that Nabers was), which resulted in his motion route total rising from 77 as a rook to 118 in Year 2. LaFleur recognizes the talent and creatively found ways to manufacture Reed touches. That's great. |
I just want to point out that Reed was actually more efficient with his non motion routes in 2024. In fact, among receivers with more than 30 non-motion targets (Reed had 45), he ranked number one in Fantasy points per target. Reed is a really good route runner, and not just when he has a runway to build up speed before the snap. His hands have been unreliable thus far, but Reed's film as a route-runner and his data when not used as a pre-snap motion man both suggest that he's a potential play-maker worth investing in. |
I'm not sure how Green Bay's offense will evolve, but it's possible that Matthew Golden's arrival will help the pass game get back on track. LaFleur has the ability to scheme up one of the NFL's most effective passing attacks, and Jordan Love has the ability to orchestrate it. It's a volatile bet, but I'm comfortable with the risk-reward proposition presented by Reed, Golden, and Love. And I love Tucker Kraft as a cheap way to get access to the offense if you want to bet on a return to stronger passing output. He's so good. Spoiler alert for your Fourth of July -- I'm sending out a bunch of young TE film cut-ups. Kraft is such a good young player. This offense could be really fun! |
What does life without Cooper Kupp look like for the Rams? |
Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 144 routes as a pre-snap motion player. Davante Adams recorded just 32 of such routes. Adams has never topped 100 motion routes in a season and has only topped 40 once. Demarcus Robinson only was used as a pre-snap motion player six times in 2024. There's a role in the LA offense for a static X-Receiver, and that seems like the clear fit for Adams. This doesn't mean that Adams isn't a good Fantasy pick. D Rob had 12 end zone targets (15th in the NFL) and seven end zone touchdowns in 2024. Kupp and Nacua combined for 13 end zone targets and three end zone touchdowns. Pre-snap motion is just a piece of the puzzle when it comes to Fantasy. I'm curious about this piece, not as it pertains to Adams, but more so as to which Rams pass-catcher might fill the vacated Kupp role. |
The offense will probably adapt to Kupp's absence. Tutu Atwell had an average route depth of 11 yards and an average depth of target of 14.5 yards on pre-snap motion routes. Kupp's rates were 7.1 and 6.8. Clearly, McVay is capable of catering to his personnel. I wonder if we'll get significantly more Atwell in 2025, or if perhaps he'll play a similar role and we'll see Nacua even more emphasized (is that possible?) as the focal point. Or, an outside possibility exists where Terrance Ferguson emerges as an important catch-and-run threat for the Rams. You can watch the scene when LA selected T Ferg (the first Ram selected in 2025), McVay seemed ecstatic. |
If you're missing football, here are some film cut-ups that I've recently created: |
Deep Passing Film Thread |
Jaylen Waddle with Tua Tagovailoa on the field |
Zach Charbonnet |
Kenneth Walker |
New Orleans Saints offense - Week 1 vs. Carolina Panthers (if you want to imagine how Walker/Charbs might fit in Klint Kubiak's offense) |
New Orleans Saints offense - Week 2 vs. Dallas Cowboys |
Chase Brown |
Bucky Irving |
Derrick Henry |
James Conner |
Jahmyr Gibbs |
Josh Jacobs |
Travis Etienne |
Chuba Hubbard |
Tony Pollard |
Dalton Kincaid |
Sam LaPorta |
Ricky Pearsall |
Jacob Cowing |
Jalen Coker |
Keon Coleman |
Jermaine Burton |
Devaughn Vele |
Xavier Worthy |
Adonai Mitchell |
Josh Downs |
Alec Pierce |
Rashod Bateman |
Cedric Tillman |
Elijah Moore (One of these days, maybe I will learn) |
Jameson Williams |
Puka Nacua |
Marvin Mims |
Tutu Atwell |
Jordan Whittington |
Jayden Reed |
Malik Washington |
Kayshon Boutte |
Roschon Johnson |
Sean Tucker |
Jaylen Wright |
Trey Benson |
Isaac Guerendo |
Blake Corum |
Bucky Irving |
Will Shipley |
Isaiah Davis |
Braelon Allen |
Ray Davis |
If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out! |
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