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| Monday, July 29, 2024 |
| It's Falcons Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (8th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 27.4 (11th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 19.0 (11th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Hired Raheem Morris as head coachHired Zac Robinson as offensive coordinatorHired Jimmy Lake as defensive coordinator |
| After evaluating the Atlanta Falcons, I was fully aware of my bias. I have an affinity for this team, probably more than any other. I am convinced that Kyle Pitts is a generational talent who has endured nearly impossible circumstances to this point in his NFL career. I have been scooping as much exposure to Pitts and Drake London as possible across my Dynasty leagues where managers are willing to part with the star Falcons pass-catchers. Watching young talent waste away while Arthur Smith engages in his bizarre melodrama against the Fantasy football community has been one of the worst parts of recent NFL fandom. |
| Now Kirk Cousins is the one to rescue us from this hell? Captain Kirk, O Captain! My Captain! A storybook ending to our suffering?! If you watched the Netflix 'Quarterback' documentary, you know the almost unbelievable intensity of Cousins' resolve. Constantly reinventing himself, Cousins has been given another opportunity to inspire us as the resilient face of Atlanta's rebirth. |
| I have let myself become romanticized with the idea of this Atlanta redemption arc. I'm fine with how that affects my personal Fantasy football experience. I am dangerously over-indexed to the Falcons, Pitts in particular. |
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| If Atlanta crashes and burns, I am going to feel it. That's a risk that I'm fine embracing. We've stuck through it all, we are here now, whatever will be, will be. |
| To prepare you for your drafts, I did my very best to not let my bias seep into my analysis. If anything, my projections may be overly cautious as I attempted to make sure that I didn't let my personal feelings paint the picture. |
| There's no helping it. This team is extremely exciting. It is difficult to analyze this team and not expect big things in 2024. Vegas lookahead lines implied the 13th-highest total for the Falcons, ahead of the Jets, Colts, and Jaguars and just behind the Rams. The organization has drafted well and built an infrastructure around the QB position that is among the best in the NFL. Statistically, no team underperformed more relative to the talent on the roster than Arthur Smith's 2023 Falcons . Atlanta gave itself two opportunities to find an answer at QB this summer. And tying all of this together will be a dynamic coaching staff that brings varied experience and expertise. |
| New defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake brings head coaching experience (at Washington in 2021 and 2022) and served as Sean McVay's assistant head coach in 2023. Morris is back in Atlanta after a three-year stint as the defensive coordinator for the Rams. He will hand over play-calling duties to Robinson. |
| McVay so heavily influences the final football product in L.A., making it tough to predict what we will see from Robinson and this staff. While we can't say exactly what Robinson's offense will look like, I do feel confident in expecting that we will see a much different offensive environment in Atlanta than the one that has been endured. |
| Only the Chicago Bears posted a lower situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate than the Falcons (47.4%) over the past two seasons. The league average during that time was 56%. Atlanta's 37% pass rate on first downs over the past two seasons was by far the NFL's lowest mark, 41% being the next-lowest. Even a move to league average in those two rates would provide a massive boost to the receiving volume available to Falcons pass-catchers. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Let one depth piece walk in free agency and added nothing. This line was one of the most healthy in 2023 and will again bet on good health, as the depth remains an unanswered question. |
| This may be the best offensive line in 2024. This unit ranked fourth in pass blocking and seventh in run blocking PFF grade and did not lose any of the six players who logged at least a 25% snap rate in 2023. |
| Chris Lindstrom registered the highest PFF blocking grade at either guard position, and center Drew Dalman ranked second at his position. These two are absolute maulers in the run game. Among 141 qualifiers, Dalman ranked fourth in PFF run blocking grade, and Lindstrom was eighth. That seems like a pretty dope fit with what this new coaching staff might want to implement in the interior ground game after watching McVay and Kyren Williams bully opponents in 2023. |
| Both of Atlanta's tackles graded out above the position average, making guard Matthew Bergeron the worst starter on paper. Bergeron was selected 38th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and was far from a disappointment as a rookie, he simply was the "worst" player on an awesome unit. Any progression that he makes from Year 1 to Year 2 could elevate this awesome unit even further. |
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| Atlanta presents a volatile projection with lots of unpredictable factors and potential paths... and so many of them point towards a huge Drake London season |
| Matt Harmon of ReceptionPerception.com and Yahoo Fantasy loves the fit for London in the "Puka Nacua role" in Atlanta's new offense. Cousins feels like a perfect pairing for London. Cousins has kept his top weapons fed ( Stefon Diggs being the lone player who might contend this fact), and he now has two clear top targets. |
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| When both players have been on the field, each London and Kyle Pitts have continued to demand receiving volume at really high rates. |
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| London's receiving volume shares paint him as one of the league's premier target hogs. Wide receivers who reach this type of receiving volume typically produce top-10 Fantasy WR numbers. What happens if London's share of the pie remains the same and Atlanta orders a large-sized pizza rather than a small thin crust? |
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| In terms of drawing a high percentage of his offense's total opportunities, Pitts has been elite. Even with London on the field, his career target share is higher than the highest target share at the TE position in 2023. It just hasn't mattered because the overall number of catchable targets has been so low. |
| We'll get to Pitts. I don't want to lose focus on London because I'm obsessed with what a strong buying window we have on Pitts right now. London's price is more cost-prohibitive than his TE teammate, but the third-year WR does look like the type of player who could break out in a truly massive way. His ability to get open and earn targets against man coverage is unique, and that is a strong signal of success for early-career wide receivers. |
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| London has been far less efficient at converting his man coverage targets into yardage than the other receivers who post the types of target rates that he has. Still, though, the rates that London has delivered are still very impressive. This isn't Diontae Johnson hogging targets but doing little with them. |
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| For reference, Johnson has multiple seasons with a target per route run rate above 27%. He just set career bests in both yards (1.97) and first downs per route run (10.2%) in his fifth season, though. London has been putting up that type of data in his first two seasons, even with abysmal QB play. We're talking about a top-10 overall selection who was unique in his ability to hog targets at the collegiate level and has done the same thing as a pro. |
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| I'm projecting London for a 26% target share, but he could push well past that. Puka Nacua had a 28.8% target share last year. London could push into that range in Zac Robinson's offense. Even with a 26% share, he projects to finish as one of the highest Fantasy scorers at WR. Even with a modest 6.6 projected touchdowns, London sits just ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, and the 49ers receivers in my median projections. He's just behind Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua. I wish that we didn't have to pay the iron price to acquire London and Bijan Robinson, but I do believe that the cost is justified for both. |
| It's time. Finally, we can talk about the league-winning value in Atlanta. |
| KYLE PITTS IS FINALLY FREE |
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| People are drafting scared. People are afraid to draft Kyle Pitts. I don't understand the discrepancy in public opinion between Pitts and London. My guess is that it's just fear. But why Pitts and not London? |
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| Pitts was a disappointment relative to his 2023 draft cost, no doubt. Arthur steered the Falcons straight into an iceberg, no one survived. Bijan Robinson finished second at RB in routes run and third in targets on his way to an RB9 (full-PPR) finish, and even he was a disappointment relative to expectations. And, turns out, our expectations for Pitts weren't even fair to begin with -- none of us knew he was rehabbing PCL surgery as well. That information was not disclosed until after the 2023 season. |
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| There are many ways to excuse the 2023 output from Pitts, and still, we don't even need to. Even if I project Pitts for identical per-target efficiency to his 2023 season, the target projection is so strong that he still would rank as the TE6 in my projections. And I think it makes sense to expect Pitts to benefit from the addition of Cousins. |
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| As mentioned already, Cousins has kept his top targets fed. Notice how many high-end target rates he produced at the tight end position. That's unusual and certainly exciting for Pitts! |
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| Pitts is a year further removed from his surgery date and set to enjoy the presence of a QB who empowers his top weapons. I'm projecting him for improved efficiency from what we saw in 2023. The only tight ends with a higher median projection are Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. |
| Pitts is simply different than anything we have at the tight end position. His target drawing ability and ability to win down the field create insane yardage upside. Even with his circumstances in Atlanta, Pitts has created two of the top-15 tight end yardage totals for a tight end under the age of 24. |
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| If the type of volume that Pitts has received to this point in his career translates to his time with Cousins at QB, it will likely yield some really high yardage totals. I only have Pitts projected for 3.6 receiving touchdowns, and still, his yardage is enough to carry him to a monster Fantasy season. Touchdowns are a potential area of concern for Pitts. He has been an afterthought when in the red zone. If that changes without Arthur Smith in the picture, the Fantasy output could get out of control for Pitts. |
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| Bijan Robinson in the Kyren Williams role? Yes please! |
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| We don't have much of a sample size from which to conclude Bijan Robinson as a "duo" runner. He's mostly been in zone-heavy running schemes to this point in his career. It's intriguing to imagine what Robinson might be able to do while following the powerful inside blocking of Dalman, Lindstrom, and Bergeron. The Falcons led the NFL in outside zone usage last year, but I wonder if the new coaching staff might lean more heavily on the strength of the interior line. |
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| The rushing projection for Robinson is awesome. The workload, the efficiency, all of it. The only negative note that I have is that his receiving projection does not measure up to Christian McCaffrey or Breece Hall. |
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| That excerpt is from a June newsletter post titled, "The Importance of RB Targets & Receptions." You can find it in article form on SportsLine now, too! Give my man Dan Schneier a follow and thank him for all of his work, he is working on getting the newsletter posts live on SportsLine for anyone who missed them. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July and into the first week of August! Tuesday, we will be covering the New York Giants. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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