| |
|
| Wednesday, November 11, 2020 |
| Tuesday was a remarkably slow news day around the NFL. We learned that Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger are on the COVID-19 list because of close contacts with positive tests, but at this point neither is expected to miss their Week 10 game. We'll obviously learn much more about injuries around the league when practices open Wednesday, and I'll have updates on all that for you tomorrow. |
| Beyond that, there were just a few news items to cover, which is fine by me, because there's a lot else I wanted to write about today. Specifically: Trades. I told you yesterday if you were in good position for the playoffs, it was time to start looking to make trades to bolster your roster, and now we're going to talk about how you should go about that. I've taken a bunch of your questions from email -- write to me at [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" to get your email answered -- and Twitter, and I'm looking at which trades are winners, which are losers, and how to go about improving on them. Make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart here if you want some more help. |
| Plus, Heath Cummings' previews for quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end are ready to help walk you through each position. He has breakdowns of the top matchups, key numbers to know, DFS plays and more to get you ready for Week 10. You'll find those at the bottom of the newsletter. |
| For now, here's what you need to know from Tuesday: |
| More Week 10 help: Seven Big Questions | Waiver Wire | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | Trade Values | Cut List | Winners and Losers | Believe It or Not |
| NFL playoffs will be expanded to 16 teams if COVID-19 forces the cancellation of "meaningful games" -- The league made this announcement Tuesday, likely to account for any potential lost revenue. Cases are on the rise, both in the NFL and around the country, and while the NFL has mostly just pushed through any potential issues so far, there may come a point when that is no longer a viable option. Given that the Packers and 49ers still played with so many key players missing last week, this seems like a long shot to actually come to fruition, but you should at least start to have conversations with your league mates about how you would handle it if games were cancelled or postponed during the Fantasy playoffs. T.Y. Hilton (groin) is practicing in full -- Hilton told reporters Tuesday he'll be ready to play Thursday against the Titans, so take him at his word. Of course, you're probably not starting him. Hilton has a lot to prove before he's worth trusting again. |
| |
| #GradeTheTrade Mailbag |
| I reached out to our readers via Twitter and email for trade questions yesterday, and one thing stood out to me: Lamar Jackson is on the move! It makes sense: If you have Jackson, you probably invested quite a bit for the privilege, except … it hasn't been a particularly rewarding experience. I'm not surprised people are fed up with his lack of production; he's had 20-plus points in just one of his past four games, and only three times all season in six-point-per-TD leagues. That production isn't hard to replace. |
| Of course, if you're trying to trade for him, you're making a bet that the remaining production is going to eclipse what has come before. It's a reasonable bet, with a pretty favorable rest-of-season schedule and Jackon's historic 2019 still fresh enough in our memories. Plus, Jackson's best production last season came from Week 10 on, as he averaged 36.2 Fantasy points per game in his final seven. Why can't he go on a similar run now? |
| With so many Jackson-centric questions, I thought it would be helpful to present a sampling of them so you can see for yourself what you can get for him in trade -- or what you might want to give up if you're trying to acquire him. I'll go through a few non-Jackson trades after these few, but first, here's my expectation for Jackson rest of season: |
| Somewhere between 2019 and 2020. He hasn't been quite as effective or quite as active as a runner as last season, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to get back to averaging 80 rushing yards per game. But you know he'll be an elite rusher, so there's always that floor for him, and I think there's room to grow in the passing game, where Jackson just hasn't had the connection with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown yet. That trio is too talented not to get things going, which makes Jackson a buy for me. |
| Let's grade some trades, and here's how this works: A "C" means a fair trade, and "A" means a big win for you, and an "F" means you made a mistake. We'll start with one from our Fantasy Football Today league that went official just as I was writing this: |
| Ben Schragger receives: Cooper Kupp Jack Capotorto receives Lamar Jackson. |
| I really like this one for Ben. That doesn't mean I hate it for Jack, but I think this is a perfect time to buy on Kupp. He's been a disappointment, sure, but when you crack under the hood, not much has really changed about his usage from last season. Kupp is on pace for nearly the same number of targets as 2019 with an identical average depth of target of 7.2 yards down field. The problem is he's had a few extra drops and he and Jared Goff haven't been able to get on the same page on their downfield attempts. Given Kupp's track record and the fact he's been used in nearly identical ways as last season, I'll bet on him figuring it out. Grade: B+ |
| Matt: Gave up Tyler Boyd, got Jackson. I was starting Cam Newton, and I still have Jamison Crowder and Davante Adams as my top WR. |
| You've got a top-three (at worst) WR and another guy who I think should remain at least a top-20 option moving forward, so this is a case of dealing from a strength. I don't typically love giving up an RB or WR for a QB -- you have more spots to fill in the former than the latter -- but in this case, I think it's fine. Not a huge win, but a pretty good gamble on Jackons's upside. Boyd doesn't have the same ceiling. Grade: B- |
| Malcolm: QB has been killing me all year. I'm currently starting Derek Carr and was gonna drop him for Jared Goff. Would you do that and just chill, or trade James Robinson to get Jackson? Jackson's schedule looks amazing outside of the Steelers in Week 12. I have Derrick Henry and Miles Sanders as my other 2 RBs. |
| And here's one I really don't like. Robinson doesn't look like he's going to stop being a must-start running back any time soon, and while I think Henry and Sanders are probably a little bit better than him, that doesn't mean you should trade one of the most valuable commodities in the game -- a must-start RB -- for a QB. If you want to trade for Jackson, either offer a lesser player or try to get a high-upside stash thrown in. Otherwise ... Grade: D |
| @PanthersDynasty: Would you trade Russell Wilson and David Montgomery for Lamar Jackson and Keenan Allen? |
| So, you're basically downgrading at QB for an upgrade at your flex spot. I tend to think the difference between Wilson and Jackson is likely to be smaller, relatively speaking, than the difference between Montgomery and Allen, though that hasn't been the case so far this season. I'm usually going to side with the upgrade at the non-QB spot, but this one is really close. I wonder if Wilson's recent struggles with turnovers (seven in the past three games) with Chris Carson injured might not lead the traditionally conservative Seahawks to take Russ off the burner just a bit moving forward -- after all, this is the coaching staff that publicly admitted it was taken off guard because the Bills decided to … pass the ball a lot. In 2020. Like, last week. Wilson is due for some regression, and if the Seahawks opt to play it a bit more conservatively, he could slide back to the pack just a bit. Grade: C |
| Adam: Give up Ezekiel Elliott and Jackson for Nick Chubb. |
| I get the idea behind this one, but I don't love the execution of it. For one thing, if you had tried to trade for Chubb two weeks ago, he'd have been even cheaper. You always have to keep in mind relative value when looking to make a trade, and acquiring someone when they are ready to return from injury means you're assuming the risk they'll suffer a setback while paying something close to face value. However, the bigger issue is that you're selling at what is likely to be the bottom of the market for Jackson and Elliott, and that's never the way you want to play it. Maybe you think things are just going to get worse for both of them, which is reasonable, but seems unlikely to me. Chubb should be better than Elliott the rest of the season, but he is coming off an injury, so there's always some risk. Plus, he had just one target in each of the first three games of the season and two or fewer in nine of 13 games since the Browns added Kareem Hunt. With that kind of involvement in the passing game, it's awfully hard for Chubb to be a truly elite Fantasy option, so you may be giving up Jackson for what might be just a marginal upgrade at RB. Grade: C- |
| Now, some non-Lamar-centric trades: |
| Wyatt: Ezekiel Elliott for Miles Sanders. Full PPR. |
| I love this for the side receiving Sanders. I understand he's been a bit of a disappointment, but it's not like Elliott is living up to expectations either, and I much prefer Sanders' situation moving forward. Elliott will get many more touches, but Sanders' touches are going to be a lot more valuable playing in a better offense with a much more downfield-oriented passing role. Sanders has one of the highest ADoT for any RB since making his debut last season, which creates the potential for big plays every game, while Elliott is just a very talented accumulator at this point. Grade: B+ |
| Steven: I'm thinking about trading James Robinson for Tyler Lockett based on playoff/championship matchups. Do you think that is a good plan or should I keep rolling with one of the most consistent backs in Fantasy? |
| As I said in yesterday's newsletter, I don't factor playoff schedules into my decision making at this point at all. I think trying to trade for Lockett right now makes some sense, because there's some mounting frustration about his performance, but Robinson isn't selling nearly low enough. It's not just that Robinson has been consistent: He's also been the sixth-best RB on a per-game basis overall. Grade: D |
| Paul: Will Fuller and Miles Sanders for Michael Thomas? I always have either Fuller or Sanders on my bench so I figured turn both of them into Thomas? |
| I think the logic here is sound: With the playoffs approaching, turning depth into a higher-upside starting lineup is the way to go, and I mentioned Fuller as a sell-high candidate in Tuesday's episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast -- he won't keep scoring touchdowns at his current pace and won't keep averaging north of 11 yards per target. That being said, I think it's probably too much to give up for Thomas. I still view Thomas as one of the three best WRs for Fantasy moving forward, but I also had Sanders just behind him in my preseason rankings, and nothing has really changed there. Sanders for Thomas straight up would make sense; adding Fuller is overkill. Grade: D. |
| |
Week 10 QB Preview
|
| |
| Even if you are mostly matchup-agnostic, like Heath is, there are still situations where you should question your lack of faith. Take the situations of Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins this week. Cousins has been the better Fantasy QB this season, but he's got a matchup that looks incredibly tough right now against a Bears defense allowing 16 Fantasy points per game; Goff gets the Seahawks, who are on pace to allow nearly 6,000 passing yards. Which one would you rather start? That's what I thought. |
| Injuries: Ben Roethlisberger (knee/Reserve/COVID-19), Baker Mayfield (Reserve/COVID-19 ), Gardner Minshew (thumb), Kyle Allen (ankle) Number to know: 3.1 -- Ben Roethlisberger's completed air yards per pass attempt, dead last among qualifiers. The matchup against the Bengals looks great, but with Roethlsiberger unlikely to practice this week while dealing with knee issues, it might be a good week to fade him. Matchup that matters: Ryan Tannehill vs. IND -- Tannehill is flat out underrated as a Fantasy QB, but the combination of his usual low volume and the tough matchup against the Colts (second-fewest points allowed to QB) makes him probably a lower-upside play this week. |
| Consensus Top 12 |
| Kyler Murray Josh Allen Aaron Rodgers Russell Wilson Deshaun Watson Justin Herbert Tom Brady Lamar Jackson Drew Brees Jared Goff Carson Wentz Ben Roethlisberger |
| |
Week 10 RB Preview
|
| |
| You have to sit Jonathan Taylor, right? That's two games in a row where he was effectively benched by the Colts, so how could you trust him? However, with questions about the availability of David Montgomery and David Johnson (concussion protocol), Christian McCaffrey (shoulder), and Kenyan Drake (ankle) unlikely to be answered by Thursday and the returns of Joe Mixon, Raheem Mostert, Mark Ingram and Devonta Freeman in question, plus the Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets on bye, you may not have a better option. Here's what Heath has to say: |
| Injuries: Christian McCaffrey (shoulder), David Johnson (concussion), David Montgomery (concussion), Justin Jackson (knee), Damien Harris (chest), Chris Carson (foot), Kenyan Drake (ankle), Miles Sanders (knee), Joe Mixon (foot), Austin Ekeler (hamstring), Raheem Mostert (ankle), Nick Chubb (knee), Myles Gaskin (knee), Matt Breida (hamstring), Darrell Henderson (thigh), Devonta Freeman (ankle), Mark Ingram (ankle), Sony Michel (illness), Tevin Coleman (knee), Carlos Hyde (hamstring), Jeff Wilson (ankle), Troymaine Pope (concussion) and A.J. Dillon (illness) Number to know: 16.7% -- J.D. McKissic has been targeted on 16.7% of Washington's passes. He's been targeted on an absurd 36.7% of Alex Smith's passes this season. Matchup that matters: Antonio Gibson @ DET -- There's room for McKissic to get his while still allowing Gibson to thrive in this matchup. The Lions play a conservative style of offense that makes it hard for them to put up points in bunches, which should allow Washington to run the ball early and often, and Gibson is the lead runner. He'll catch a few passes, too, of course. |
| Consensus Top 24 |
| Alvin Kamara Dalvin Cook Aaron Jones James Robinson Miles Sanders Derrick Henry Chase Edmonds Josh Jacobs James Conner Mike Davis Kareem Hunt Nick Chubb Giovani Bernard Duke Johnson D'Andre Swift Antonio Gibson J.K. Dobbins Jerick McKinnon Leonard Fournette Darrell Henderson Jonathan Taylor J.D. McKissic Wayne Gallman Gus Edwards |
| Week 10 WR Preview |
| |
| We can't perfectly predict the future, but it's a lot easier to at least get in the ballpark when there aren't question marks about how a team will use their players. Unfortunately, the Eagles seem to have a lot of questions. Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert got their feet wet before the bye in their returns from injury, and now it looks like Alshon Jeffery will finally make his long-awaited return. Travis Fulgham has been dominant since joining the Eagles, but will that continue? It's harder to answer that definitively right now. |
| Injuries: Calvin Ridley (foot), Kenny Golladay (hip), Deebo Samuel (hamstring), T.Y. Hilton (groin), Sammy Watkins (hamstring), Allen Lazard (abdomen), N'Keal Harry (concussion), DeSean Jackson (ankle), Alshon Jeffery (foot), Preston Williams (foot), Kendrick Bourne (illness) and Laviska Shenault (hamstring) Number to know: 1 -- Robby Anderson still only has one touchdown on 60 catches this season. There's a bid of bad luck there, but remember D.J. Moore had just four scores on 87 catches last season, and Anderson has basically taken on his role in the offense. Matchup that matters: Marvin Jones vs. WAS -- Washington has been the second-toughest defense for opposing wide receivers, and Jones just hasn't been a big enough factor with Kenny Golladay out to trust him. If you do, you're doing so solely to chase touchdowns. |
| Consensus Top 24 |
| Davante Adams Keenan Allen Stefon Diggs DeAndre Hopkins DK Metcalf A.J. Brown Allen Robinson Terry McLaurin Tyler Lockett Will Fuller Cooper Kupp Travis Fulgham Michael Thomas Brandin Cooks Tyler Boyd Robert Woods JuJu Smith-Schuster Robby Anderson Chris Godwin D.J. Chark Adam Thielen Christian Kirk Brandon Aiyuk Mike Evans |
| Week 10 TE Preview |
| |
| At one point, it looked like Jonnu Smith was going to join the ranks of the elite at tight end. He's an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands and was finally getting more than a few token targets. He has just eight targets in three games since his ankle injury, however, and you have to wonder how healthy he is. The matchup against a Colts defense that has shut down tight ends this season only makes his outlook cloudier. |
| Injuries: Noah Fant (ankle), Zach Ertz (ankle), Austin Hooper (appendix), Jack Doyle (concussion), Mo Alie-Cox (knee) and Albert Okwuegbunam (knee) Number to know: 7 -- Hunter Henry has at least seven targets in all but two games this year. As disappointing as the production has been, there's no way you're cutting or sitting him. Matchup that matters: Eric Ebron vs. CIN -- When you're talking about touchdown-or-bust tight ends, getting one going against a defense as bad as Cincinnati's should make you feel pretty good. |
| Consensus Top 12 |
| Darren Waller T.J. Hockenson Evan Engram Rob Gronkowski Noah Fant Eric Ebron Dallas Goedert Mark Andrews Jimmy Graham Jared Cook Hunter Henry Jonnu Smith |
| |
| | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | The Masters | ✔Scores & Highlights
✔Fantasy and Betting Advice
✔Interviews with Top Athletes
CBS Sports HQ has you covered. Stream anywhere, anytime, on any device.
Watch Now
| | Featuring live streaming coverage of the most renowned tournament in golf, Masters Live will offer three channels of golf action available on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports app, and CBS All Access. Featured Groups tee off at 7:45 AM ET on Thursday.
Learn More
|
|
| |
| |
