| | | | Wednesday, March 9, 2022 | | Happy Wednesday, everyone! I don't want to jinx it nor get my hopes up, but apparently, the two sides are making progress and we might just be nearing an end to the lockout in the coming days (or hours?). Of course, we've all heard that before and we were apparently getting close just a couple of weeks ago only to have it all collapse. So, for now, we remain in a holding period waiting for baseball to come back. | | As we wait, we continue to mock away. Your drafts may have been pushed back and delayed -- or some of you may still be drafting in the coming days -- so we wanted to fire off a lot of mock drafts to give you a scope of where players are being selected. Last week in the newsletter, we reviewed our 12-team Roto draft. Today, we'll break down our 12-team H2H Points mock draft with myself and the entire FBT crew (Scott, Frank and Chris). I'll go over my general strategy, favorite picks, the one I regret the most and more. | | We'll also dive into Scott White's Tout Wars draft -- review and recap. This one was for real -- not a mock! Scott had a couple surprises that ultimately shaped (or reshaped) his draft strategy, but in the end I really liked how his team shook out. For reference, Scott took home the Tout Wars championship in his league in 2020 only to fall all the way near the bottom of the standings in 2021. This was a 15-team Roto scoring format. | | And of course, as always, you can follow to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify. Catch up now for a more detailed look at ADP risers and fallers you need to know about plus Scott's top-50 keepers heading into the 2022 season -- for everyone in keeper leagues. | | | | 12-team H2H Points mock recap | | My strategy for this mock draft was completely different than the one I utilized in our Roto mock from a week ago and the one I plan to utilize in any draft this coming season that is not specifically the H2H points format. That speaks volumes to the kind of adjustments you should make if you are playing in a H2H points format. However, the one major adjustment to make was to prioritize starting pitchers early and often. Last offseason, we did a Fantasy Baseball Today roundtable that dove a bit deeper into how to adjust your draft strategy for this specific format and you can find that here. | | So it should come as no surprise to you that I went starting pitcher with each of my first two picks. However, after that, I wanted to make sure I didn't fall too behind on my hitting. As I mentioned last week, my general strategy for the 2022 Fantasy Baseball season will be summed up simply as -- draft power (aiming to enter the "I can never have enough" HR/R/RBI" stratosphere) early and often, don't chase stolen bases and don't chase saves. | | In this format, it's easy to stick to that hitter strategy given how the format plays out for the mid double-digit stolen base guys (hint: they don't fare very well), but it's not as easy to prioritize your power hitting when starting pitchers have so much value. It's definitely very easy to all but forget about saves in this format. In fact, some teams punt the category altogether, instead opting to find starting pitchers who qualify as relief pitcher eligible to stick in their two relief pitcher slots. | | As a result, you'll notice a massive slide for all of the top closers -- the second and third tiers as well. The same goes for some of the speedy guys -- including one who I couldn't let slide any further and had to stop the fall. | | You'll also want to prioritize those high OBP (on base percentage) hitters and also those who bat higher up in their lineups. It's very important to get on base in this format, and the higher up in the lineup means more at bats -- also a really good thing. When I look back on my final roster, I have regrets about not drafting enough high OBP and high-in-the-lineup hitters. The good news about the latter is that projected batting orders in March tend to look a lot different than they end up being in the coming months. Or at least that's what I'll keep telling myself. | | One more thing to note about this mock: We drafted this one with a bench (unlike last week's mock where we didn't have one). And another less meaningful note -- that's two mocks in a row where I've drafted Jose Altuve in the fifth round and Camilo Doval in the 16th round. I guess they're starting to become "my guys" for this year. | | | | My team from the No. 6 overall spot | | Round 1: Corbin Burnes, SPRound 2: Shane Bieber, SPRound 3: Matt Olson, 1BRound 4: Teoscar Hernandez, OFRound 5: Jose Altuve, 2BRound 6: Byron Buxton, OFRound 7: Blake Snell, SPRound 8: Tim Anderson, SS Round 9: Shane Baz, SPRound 10: Tyler Mahle, SPRound 11: Marcus Stroman, SPRound 12: Adalberto Mondesi, 3BRound 13: Lourdes Gurriel, OFRound 14: Will Smith, RPRound 15: Eddie Rosario, OFRound 16: Camilo Doval, RPRound 17: Robbie Grossman, OF Round 18: Luis Patino, SPRound 19: Dansby Swanson, SSRound 20: Frank Schwindel, OFRound 21: Mitch Garver, C | | My favorite pick: It may seem like an at value pick, but in this specific format, I couldn't be more thrilled to land Bieber in the middle of the second round. I don't see all that much holding him back from returning to his elite form in 2022. Most of Bieber's 2021 struggles I attribute to him rushing back from the shoulder injury. If you look back at Bieber's April before the injury, the underlying stats showed the same pitcher he was when he dominated the Fantasy landscape. I'm a buyer again for 2022. | | My biggest regret: Drafting Hernandez and Buxton in Rounds 4 and 6. It's not even that I don't like either pick at value. I'm a big believer in drafting potential league-winning type picks and Buxton provides just that at a sixth-round cost. My issue here is that in this format you only start three outfielders. Filling two of those slots in the first six rounds limited what I was able to do from a roster construction standpoint over the rest of the draft. | | My favorite pick by another manager: Scott White taking Mike Clevinger at No. 122 overall in Round 11. When you consider this specific format, Clevinger stands as a potential league-winning pick this late. He's a higher-upside play than any of the starters selected after him and at least a handful of those who went before him. | | | | Scott's key takeaways from the draft | | Head-to-Head points has long been known as the format that favors starting pitchers, but never have I seen it taken to the extreme it was in this draft, with late-rounders like Tanner Houck and Jon Gray being pushed into the middle rounds and bottom-feeders like Drew Smyly and Dane Dunning being drafted at all. That's out of just 252 picks overall. It was insane.Nobody could afford to get left out at the most critical position. I contributed to it myself with Nestor Cortes in Round 18 and Mitch Keller in Round 21, two pitchers who I had yet to see drafted in a league so shallow.What's crazy is I think it was exactly the right thing to do. It's the playbook I've long recommended for this scoring format, loading up on starting pitcher depth to maximize two-start options and breakout possibilities. I'm just not used to everybody doing it. Hitter needs can always be addressed on the waiver wire. Only 108 are even started in this format, nine for each of the 12 teams. Moreover, there comes a point in the hitter pool where distinctions are mostly lost. With no categories to juggle and so few lineup spots to fill, what's the point in choosing anymore? | | For more key takeaways from Scott plus his thoughts on his overall approach, strategy and how things turned out in this draft, check out his mock review here. | | Scott's Tout Wars team | | As Scott made clear from the beginning, his 2022 Tout Wars draft did not at all go according to plan with the exception of one area -- not overpaying for speed. This has been the Scott White calling card this draft season. Things fell into place nicely for Scott when a speed demon fell into his lap -- this further justified his strategy to avoid prioritizing it in the early rounds with his hitters. Scott's entire recap can be found here, you can find the full draft results from every league member here, and his draft played out as you'll see below: | | Context is key: The format was a 15-team Rotisserie league that uses on-base percentage instead of batting average. Scott picked from No. 8 overall. | Startling lineup (round number in parentheses):
C - Joey Bart, SF (20)
C - Eric Haase, DET (22)
1B - Vladimir Guerrero, TOR (1)
2B - Jose Altuve, HOU (5)
3B - Austin Riley, ATL (3)
SS - Nicky Lopez, KC (18)
CI - Adalberto Mondesi, KC (9)
MI - Eduardo Escobar, NYM (16)
OF - Bryan Reynolds, PIT (6)
OF - Marcell Ozuna, ATL (11)
OF - Jorge Soler, FA (12)
OF - Adolis Garcia, TEX (15)
OF - Eddie Rosario, FA (19)
U - Robinson Cano, NYM (25)
P - Zack Wheeler, PHI (2)
P - Sandy Alcantara, MIA (4)
P - Charlie Morton, ATL (7)
P - Justin Verlander, HOU (8)
P - Shohei Ohtani, LAA (10) (pitcher only)
P - Ranger Suarez, PHI (13)
P - Adam Wainwright, STL (14)
P - Dylan Floro, MIA (17)
P - Ken Giles, SEA (21) | Bench:
3B - Jose Miranda, MIN (23)
1B - Seth Beer, ARI (24)
RP - Chris Stratton, PIT (26)
3B - J.D. Davis, NYM (27)
SS - Kyle Farmer, CIN (28)
OF - Gavin Sheets, CHW (29) | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League on P+ | | 24/7 Sports News | Real Madrid hosts PSG at the Bernabeu in what promises to be an instant-classic, with Los Merengues needing a comeback victory to advance to the quarterfinals. The Round of 16 continues on Wednesday!
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