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Friday, July 4, 2025
Fantasy Baseball players are an antsy sort. Whether you've spent your whole life watching baseball or you are deep into the minutiae of advanced stats, you should know that it takes a lot more than a few weeks to change your opinion on a player. It should take more than a few months, even. 
Should.
In practice, that's not how it works for anyone. It's natural, especially when you're playing Fantasy and you're watching your team slide down the rankings. Who wants to be patient when your opponents' small-sample-size All-Stars are dominating and your actual, multi-time All-Stars are floundering? Who has time to be patient when you're losing games?
But we've been given several stark reminders this season of how important patience is, especially when it comes to pitchers coming back from significant injuries. It took guys like Spencer Strider, Sandy Alcantara, and Felix Bautista some time to find themselves, but they've all more or less gotten to where we want them to be. And it looks like Eury Perez is following in their footsteps. 
Perez – who I will always take time to remind you, is just a few months past his 22nd birthday – was terrible in his first four starts back from Tommy John surgery. He struck out just 14 and walked 10 in 16 innings of work while giving up a 6.19 ERA. The stuff still looked pretty good, but his command was scattershot and the swinging strike rate fell from an elite 15.7% rate in 2023 as a rookie to a downright pedestrian 9.1% rate through those four starts. It was bad enough we had to wait multiple months just for him to get back on a mound at the start of the season, but then he returned and looked like that? What was even the point of waiting all that time?
Allow Thursday's start to remind you. Perez cruised through six innings on just 80 pitches, and he did his very best Jacob deGrom impression, largely shelving his curveball (he threw just four of them) and his changeup (two) in favor of a heavy, consistent dose of fastballs and sliders. And it worked. The seven strikeouts and one hit over six innings tell that story, but you know what might tell it even better? A whopping 20 swinging strikes on 40 swings, a truly massive number. He became the first pitcher this season and just the 15th in the past five to have 20 swinging strikes on 80 or fewer pitches in a start. 
The Twins aren't the mightiest offense known to man, of course, but doing that against any major-league lineup is hard to do. And it's not like Perez is some out-of-nowhere flash in the pan – he was arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball when he made his debut two years ago and, again, is still just 22 years old. I cannot stress enough how precocious Perez is, and how well that bodes for his chances of turning into an ace in the long run. The list of pitchers who have even thrown 90 innings in a season as a 20-year-old over the past 20 years is: Jose Fernandez, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgarner, and (weirdly) Jordan Lyles . That's pretty good company.
Does this mean Perez is just an ace moving forward? Probably not. Strider and Alcantara have had their missteps since figuring it out, and Perez will probably be no different. But he's on the shortlist for most talented pitchers in baseball, and we've finally seen the evidence for it. Perez is available in just over one-quarter of CBS Fantasy leagues right now, and I don't see any reason to think that number should be any higher than zero after this start.
Here's what else you need to know about from Thursday's action around MLB:
Friday's top waiver-wire targets
Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox (12%) – I'm not sure how this is going to go. Montgomery was the No. 22 pick in the 2022 draft and hit .287/.455/.484 during a breakout 2023 campaign, but he has struggled mightily since. That includes a .218/.298/.435 line at Triple-A this season with a 33.9% strikeout rate, though the White Sox did at least wait until he got hot to give him the call – Montgomery has four homers in his past six games with 11 hits in that span. Maybe he's just now figuring it out and will live up to the hype he once had, but I kind of doubt it. For now, Montgomery is only worth adding in the deepest of leagues. That being said, he does at least have this going for him: He's definitely gonna play a lot on a team getting a .252 wOBA from its shortstops, the second-worst mark in baseball. 
Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays (19%) – Kim was a tough player to stash while he worked his way back from shoulder surgery because he's not such an obvious difference maker that you need to make sure you have him around at the expense of other players who might be more immediately impactful. But Kim was reinstated from the IL Thursday and will make his season debut Friday when the Rays begin a series against the Twins in Minnesota. They might opt to work Kim back in a little slowly at first, given how long he's been out, but the Rays have been consistent that Kim is "expected to be their primary shortstop ," according to MLB.com, though he'll likely see some time at a few other spots around the field at times, as per the Rays typical approach. Kim has averaged 17 homers and 36 steals per 162 games over the past two seasons. 
Thairo Estrada, 2B, Rockies (15%) – This is what we hoped it would look like. Estrada went 3 for 4 with a homer and four RBI Thursday against the Astros and is now up to a .317/.339/.436 line through 25 games. He still isn't stealing many bases, but at least he's trying a bit more often than he did last season – he has one on four attempts in 25 games, after attempting just four in 96 games a year ago. I don't know if Estrada will ever get back to being a 20–plus steal guy, but with his contact-heavy approach fitting in well in Coors Field, he might be a viable starting middle infielder anyway. 
Ezequiel Tovar , SS, Rockies (50%) – Let's just stick with the theme! Tovar was more or less viewed as a must-roster and even must-start shortstop back in draft season, but with a slow start snowballing into a month-plus absence from an oblique injury, his roster rate has dropped considerably. Well, he's set to begin a rehab assignment Friday, so it's time for that roster rate to start creeping back up. How high? He's a pretty fringe-y option in H2H points leagues because of his poor plate discipline, but Tovar should be a solid source of power and batting average, and the counting stats shouldn't be terrible with the Rockies lineup playing better of late. He's more of a MI option, but he's a solid one now that he's on the verge of a return. 
Thursday's standouts
Robbie Ray, Giants @ARI: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Ray hasn't walked more than three in a start since May 31 and has just two starts of more than two walks since May 1. When he's throwing strikes like this, Ray is really, really hard to beat, hence the 1.99 ERA in that stretch. Ray has a long enough track record that we know he isn't quite that good, but I don't really see much reason to be skeptical about him in general. He'll hit some rough patches where his command abandons him, but Ray is living up to even the loftiest breakout expectations for him before the season.
Seth Lugo, Royals @SEA: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Here's where Lugo ranked entering this start in various pitching metrics among 70 qualifiers:
  • xERA: 57th (4.63)
  • FIP: 44th (4.18)
  • SIERA: 43rd (4.10)
  • DRA: 48th (4.96)
  • ERA: 15th (2.74) 
In fairness, this was an excellent start, as Lugo overcame some recent control issues and missed a decent amount of bats, making this one of his better starts of the season. Maybe he can build on this and avoid the regression that seems so obviously due. Or maybe he'll continue to confound expectations and drive me, personally, insane. Or, maybe the regression will come for him. Meanwhile, I'm going broke betting against Lugo for the third year in a row, so maybe don't listen to me. 
Jose Soriano, Angels @ATL: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – This was an excellent start, so why am I not including the 75% rostered Soriano in the waiver-wire segment today? Because we need more than just flashes. Soriano has just been incredibly inconsistent and, frankly, frustrating this season. He finished May with a 2.34 ERA and followed that up by giving up seven runs in 3.2 innings to open up June; that was followed by two runs in his next 20.2 innings with 28 strikeouts, only to close June out with eight runs allowed in four innings. On the whole, Soriano has been a lot more good than bad over the past couple of months, but the inconsistency makes it really hard to buy in. He's a fine Fantasy option, mostly thanks to his elite groundball rates, but the blowups make it hard to fully trust him. 
David Peterson, Mets vs. MIL: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – If you ignore the radar gun, Peterson is a lot like Soriano, right down to the whole "it's hard to trust him" bit. He had been outpunching his weight for a long time before a recent run of bad outcomes, and on the whole, I think Peterson is mostly just a fringey starter. Even when the ERA is low, the WHIP tends to be high and the strikeouts are rarely anything special, either. He's fine to have around, but Person isn't someone I'm viewing as a core piece of a good Fantasy rotation. 
David Festa, Twins @MIA: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Festa continues to flash promise without actually living up to it. The problem here is actually pretty straightforward: His four-seam fastball is awful. Festa gave up five batted balls over 95 mph and every single one of them came off the fastball, which had a .418 xwOBA allowed entering the start. That's only going to go up. Festa has toyed with a sinker at times this season, and it might be time to try leaning on that even more heavily because the four-seamer is just holding him back right now. His changeup and slider continue to show plenty of promise as swing-and-miss pitches, but until he figures out the fastball problem, it probably doesn't matter. He definitely looks like a candidate for a cutter if the Twins want to keep tinkering. 
Brandon Walter , Astros @COL: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – The Rockies offense has been terrible this season, but starting a fringe talent like Walter at Coors Field is always a huge risk. It's not because the Rockies are an especially fearsome lineup – they were just 18th in home wOBA entering this game. It's because Coors Field's thin air literally makes pitches move differently than in other venues, which introduces a whole bunch of uncertainty for every pitcher. Some are unaffected, but Walter clearly wasn't one of them. He still needs to be saved for the most enticing situations. 
Cade Horton, Cubs vs. CLE: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I thought about including Horton in the waiver-wire segment today, but I'm just not there with him. The talent and upside are clear, but the consistency hasn't been, and I think he mostly just took advantage of a dreadful Cleveland lineup in this one – the Guardians were dead last in baseball with a .205 average and .268 wOBA over the 30 days preceding this game. Horton had gone six innings just once prior to this and had given up seven runs in his previous outing, so I need to see more from him. Especially from the fastball, which has had horrible results so far. Let's keep an eye on him for now. 
News and notes
Corbin Carroll began a rehab assignment at the Arizona Complex League on Thursday. He's working his way back from a chip fracture in his wrist and is aiming for a return around the All-Star break, which is, frankly, stunning. Here's hoping it all goes well. 
Max Muncy was placed on the IL with a bone bruise in his knee. He'll be sidelined for at least six weeks. That's a bummer because he's been so good for the past couple of months, though I guess the good news is he should be back sometime this season. The Dodgers figure to give Tommy Edman, Enrique Hernandez, and Miguel Rojas chances at third base in Muncy's absence.
The corresponding move was that the Dodgers recalled Esteury Ruiz. The speed specialist was having a decent season at Triple-A, but I just don't think there's enough room for him in the outfield right now to be worth adding outside of NL-only leagues where you need speed. 
Yordan Alvarez was given two injections in his right hand after a specialist determined that he's dealing with inflammation.
Matt Chapman is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Friday. He's working his way back from a sprained wrist. 
Clarke Schmidt left early due to right forearm tightness. Previously underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2017, so that feels ominous. The Yankees might give Clayton Beeter or JT Brubaker a try if Schmidt has to miss time, but keep an eye on prospect Cam Schlittler, a 24-year-old with a 2.82 ERA and 31.9% strikeout rate this season between Double-A and Triple-A. 
Luis Ortiz of the Guardians is being investigated by Major League Baseball due to a possible gambling-related offense. He was placed on paid leave. Joey Cantillo was called up to take his spot in the rotation and threw 3.1 shutout innings with five strikeouts Thursday. He's a name to keep an eye on. 
Bo Bichette has missed four straight with right knee discomfort.
Max Scherzer has been cleared to start Saturday against the Angels. He dealt with forearm tightness and thumb fatigue in his last start, which continues to be an issue. 
Kodai Senga will begin a rehab assignment either Saturday or Sunday and could return from his hamstring injury before the AS break.
Sean Manaea will make one more rehab start Tuesday. If all goes well, the Mets would like Manaea to make his season debut July 13 against the Royals. He has missed the first three months with an oblique injury and has also dealt with some elbow soreness, so I'm not really sure what to expect here. 
The Mets placed Paul Blackburn on the IL with a right shoulder impingement, so they really need the rotation help. 
The Angels placed Christian Moore on the IL with a left thumb sprain. They promoted Chad Stevens, a 26-year-old who was hitting .307 with a .924 OPS in Triple-A. A name to watch for AL-only leagues for now. 
 
 
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