Pepco is doing well there

Good Morning Voornaam,

Welcome to Friday the 13th, a favourite day for ghosts everywhere. Fittingly, there's an update from one of the scariest companies on the JSE: Steinhoff.

This time, it's a good update. In stark contrast to the disappointing news that Mattress Firm won't be listing anymore, the company has now highlighted Pepco's latest quarterly results. The retailer is growing beautifully in Europe, though margins are showing some growing pains. Of course, the good news hardly matters, unless you're a Steinhoff creditor.

The other news on a quiet day of SENS releases was Mondi's completion of the acquisition of the paper mill in Italy.

Grab your ticket to Europe and read Ghost Bites this morning for these updates>>>

News from the US

The trouble for retailers in this environment is that although sales growth looks good, margins are under pressure as consumers switch from discretionary items to basics. The margins on new TVs are better than on lettuces, I can tell you that much. I noted with interest that Walmart is putting in place partnerships that will help it sell delivery and packing services to other businesses, a sign that they are looking for sources of income beyond the core business.

Salesforce is one such partner, with Walmart's offering listed in its app store for businesses.

It sounds a bit like something Amazon woul d do, a company which has tried to do many things beyond just being a traditional online store. I will now remind you that Amazon's eCommerce business doesn't actually make money, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) generating all the cash in the business.

In other news, there's shareholder activism at Disney and I can't say that I'm surprised. After an odd strategic decision to throw basically everything at streaming, some shareholders are gatvol of the management team taking the mickey with their money. Bob Iger is back as CEO and there's a fight underway over who the new chairman will be.

Disney's share price is down 37% over the past year, which is still better than Amazon which is down 42%. Walmart is up 1.5% over the same time period, reminding us that traditional stocks outperformed frothy growth stocks in 2022. We've covered all three of these companies (and many more) in Magic Markets Premium.

US inflation as expected

At 6.5% year-on-year, December 2022 inflation numbers in the US were exactly as expected. This left risky assets slightly on the front foot, with some volatility caused by Fed speaker Harker who stated that the central bank should only increase rates by 25 basis points going forward. This echoed the view of some other Fed officials. Futures are pricing in 25 basis points at the next meeting.

This was great news for gold, which traded above $1,900 for a brief time before falling back to $1,885. TreasuryONE also highlig hts a good week for Brent Crude, trading above $82/barrel on the strength of demand expectations from China.

The rand had a busy day, bouncing between levels of R16.70 and R16.90. It seems to be happiest in the R16.80 to R17.30 range for now.

To help you make sense of the key pressure points for 2023, the team from TreasuryONE will be hosting a webinar next week Wednesday at 9am. You don't want to miss this opportunity, especially since attendance is free if you register at this link>>>

A better year ahead for growth stocks?

In the latest episode of Magic Markets, Craig Antonie of AnBro Capital Investments joined us to recap a really tough year for growth stocks b> in 2022 and to look at the drivers going forward.

This is a fantastic way to remind yourself why tech stocks have been a source of pain recently. With much discussion around the underlying drivers of earnings in these companies and the broader macroeconomic environment, it's also a good way to understand what 2023 might look like.

Listen to the episode at this link>>>

With that, I leave you to a great weekend. If you'll be at the cricket at Newlands tomorrow night...well, there might be a ghost there too.

Ghost Bites (Mondi | Steinhoff - Pepco)

Mondi has completed the acquisition of the Duino mill in Italy. Pepco is performing very well in Europe, though margins are lagging because of the store rollout.

The supply-demand dynamics swung completely from 2021 to 2022. When global apparel retailers report on this festive season, you can be sure that margins will be an ugly story.

Too much stock!
 

Craig Antonie of AnBro Capital Investments joins us to recap a truly awful year for growth stocks. Of course, the real focus was on what might happen going forward.

 
 

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