With Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron each caught up in a domestic spat, a new dynamic duo is emerging to set the EU's geopolitical direction.

French President Macron saw his three-month-old government fall last week, and is now looking for someone willing to take on the gargantuan task of putting together a new one. 

In Berlin, the German traffic light coalition stopped on yellow as the liberal FDP left over budget disputes. Now, the remains of Scholz’ government find themselves in the minority, and new national elections await in February, with polls looking dismal for the current leadership.  

The once revered Franco-German tandem is, for now, stalled, leaving space for other players to take centre stage. In Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen now has the Commission she dreamt of, while in Warsaw, Prime Minister Donald Tusk is increasingly becoming the go-to when member states have a question that needs answering.  

Von der Leyen seizes the moment

The signs of Paris’ waning influence at EU level are becoming impossible to miss. In comments to EU Politics Decoded, French lawmakers say von der Leyen has seized the moment to close the EU’s trade deal with the Mercosur bloc, while France was otherwise engaged.

Whether they are right or not does not change the fact that the Commission felt emboldened to take its own action last week. French opposition – from its leaders and its farmers – could not stop them.  

Because while France and Germany are distracted, Brussels looks more than happy to fill in the gaps. Recent crises have blurred the lines between policy areas the EU can and cannot wade into.  

Although not strictly foreign policy, new Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has made it his key priority to cut EU dependency on Russian energy, he told EU Politics Decoded moments after the new Commission was confirmed last month.  

On this month’s evidence, von der Leyen and her deputies do not seem shy to set a collective course for the continent if the capitals fail to do so.  

Herbivores go looking for Tusk 

Away from Brussels, another emerging player is reaping the rewards of a reset in the EU’s power dynamic: Poland’s Donald Tusk. 

This is most clear on migration, where the Polish position, initially considered hardline, is now shared by much of the European mainstream.  

In October, all 27 EU member states threw their weight behind the Polish approach to the instrumentalisation of migrants by Belarus and Russia on the country’s eastern border – ultimately resulting in the door being closed to asylum seekers.  

And only yesterday, the Polish push for tougher (and legally dubious) migration measures came full circle. Under certain circumstances, the Commission now allows for member states to bend EU law to stop arrivals – and hints that international law may be outdated. 

Poland’s prominence is also not lost on Macron. Seeking respite from events in Paris, the embattled French leader is currently in Warsaw floating the idea of sending a European peacekeeping force to Ukraine – should peace be achieved soon. Polish support is seen as crucial: the Central European country is on track to outspend all other NATO countries on defence this year. 

Similarly, leader of the German opposition and election frontrunner Friedrich Merz has also paid a visit to Warsaw. Merz has taken a notably different line to Scholz on German support for Ukraine – one closer to that of Warsaw.  

Tusk will arrive in Brussels for next week’s EU leaders’ summit with his stock as high as ever, but it may soon climb even higher. In January, the Poles take over the EU council presidency for the first six months of 2025, when its priorities will be all things security. 

Von der Leyen has a friend in Warsaw, and the timing of Poland’s presidency means Tusk’s influence looks unlikely to recede, even if Berlin and Paris stabilise themselves. At the core of the EU remains a dynamic duo – just perhaps not the traditional one.