Editor’s Take: The art of pre-election positioning Even politicians are supposed to go on holiday in August. This year, however, the summer break did not stop the leaders of the European centre-right and left from going on manoeuvres. Frans Timmermans’ return to domestic politics to lead the left-green alliance ahead of November’s general elections gives the Dutch Labour Party its best chance to claim the prime minister’s post in two decades. Victory in November’s elections, after more than a decade of Mark Rutte’s centre-right premiership, would be a significant scalp for the European centre-left. But his departure from the Commission leaves a big hole in Brussels. The Socialist lead candidate ahead of the 2019 European elections, as Commission vice president and Green Deal tsar, Timmermans has been the centre-left’s key figure in the Von der Leyen Commission, pushing forward a raft of EU climate change and environmental legislation and emerging as one of the leading climate diplomats at the annual COP summits. In July, the Socialists secured a major victory – albeit by the narrowest of margins – when they defeated EPP attempts to derail the EU nature restoration law. Timmermans’ departure and replacement with Wopke Hoekstra, foreign minister in Mark Rutte’s government and a Christian Democrat, is a significant tactical blow to the centre-left, who want to put climate action at the heart of their campaign next June. Pleas by the Socialist and Democrat group that the climate action part of Timmermans’ portfolio should stay with their family – Slovak former diplomat Maroš Šefčovič, who has been assigned to take over Timmermans’ role as European Green Deal, is from the centre-left – have fallen on deaf ears. Meanwhile, EPP leader Manfred Weber has also been setting out his stall, making a two-day visit to Tunisia this week. EPP officials say that Weber wants the EU to rethink its neighbourhood strategy in terms of relations with the South Mediterranean. Lest we forget, Von der Leyen agreed a €785 million cash-for-migrant control deal with the Tunisian government in July, which the Commission – backed by EU governments – wants to use as a model for similar deals with other countries in North Africa. The trip – which Weber made as EPP leader without being accompanied by any other EPP MEPs – also suggests that Weber wants to put himself in the frame for a top EU job ahead of the June polls. Meeting Tunisian President Kais Saied, the country’s border forces and Interior Ministry is a clear attempt by the EPP leader to stake out the ground on migration control. Current opinion polls suggest that nationalist and far-right parties will likely make the most gains next June, potentially at the expense of mainstream conservative parties. EPP officials say they want to outflank the far-right by demonstrating to Europeans that irregular migration is being addressed. These are early moves, but they are likely to set the tone and the political ground on which the election campaign is fought. | 