Paul Messad reports on the re-election of Donald Trump as US president on Wednesday, which could have major consequences for Europe's energy security, industrial competitiveness and climate goals.
The return of Trump, just a few days before the COP29 global climate talks kick off in Azerbaijan, will undoubtedly weaken global efforts to tackle climate change.
He wants to take the US out of the Paris Agreement and weaken the country's Environmental Protection Agency of the US Department of Energy (DoE), as he did during his previous 2016 - 2020 presidential term.
Trump may also cut resources for the International Energy Agency (IEA), accused by some Republicans of paying "excessive attention to the energy transition
Some commentators, however, point to dramatic falls in the price of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries, arguing that the clean energy transition will continue, irrespective of US policies.
A boost in US fossil fuel production could have implications for the EU.
Since 2022 Europe has increased its demand for US liquified national gas (LNG), as part of the bloc's drive to cut out Russian gas imports.
However, between now and 2027, Europe's indicative target to phase out Russian gas, "we can expect nothing less than business as usual between the two sides of the Atlantic," Nicolas Goldberg, energy market expert at Colombus Consulting, told Euractiv.
"European consumers should not be directly affected [in terms of prices]," Edouard Lotz, energy market analyst at Omnegy, told on a press release.
However, post 2027 "it's hard to say what will happen. Gas prices also depend on what will be its stance on international conflicts. In this case, it is completely unclear," Goldberg warned.
The IEA has warned of an LNG 'supply glut' in the second half of the decade, while EU demand for gas is set to decline as its energy transition continues.
Concerning oil, ‘the impact of Trump's future policy is more than uncertain’, Bros said. But according to Lotz, "Donald Trump's aggressive approach towards countries such as China and Iran could lead to instability in the Middle East, with repercussions for oil prices."
Trump is also planning to increase customs duties on imports, particularly from China.
Sarah Guillou, an analyst at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures told local media that Europe's challenge is that "US tariffs on China could lead Beijing to reallocate its production surpluses to Europe."
This would be particularly in key clean energy markets, such as solar panels and electric car batteries, where Europe has its own industrial ambitions.
"Basically, it would simply aggravate a pre-existing situation, since China is already pouring its surplus into European clean tech markets, which is already causing problems," Pellerin-Carlin acknowledged.
"We are going to have to learn to stand on our own two feet," Pellerin-Carlin concluded, a sentiment echoed by many European politicians digesting the return of Trump.
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