Ending a Catastrophe for Ukraine and Russia

By Ed D'Agostino | February 21, 2025

If you feel like the world order is being rearranged, you’re right. It is, and quickly.

Settlement discussions about Ukraine have begun—without Ukraine. The talks were held in Saudi Arabia.

These are important signals. George Friedman helps us break them down in this week’s interview.

If you look at Russia’s war against Ukraine objectively, you could argue it’s been a disaster for Putin on a grand scale. After three years and over $200 billion, along with an estimated 300,000 Russian casualties, Putin has failed to defeat a much smaller nation, let alone rebuild an empire. Of course, this wasn’t just a war against Ukraine, which received $65.9 billion in military assistance from the US. This was Russia vs. the West.

The leader of the West, the US, no longer has an interest in prolonging (or funding) this war. We are seeking to force a settlement. This has put in motion what looks like a game of 3D chess.

For starters, the US is seeking guaranteed access to rare earth minerals from Ukraine, reducing dependence on China. Will the US ease pressure on Russia in exchange for this access? It looks that way.

Bringing Russia back into the global fray would be a clear signal to China. “We can make peace with those willing to work with us. And we can find ways to replace those minerals you’ve decided should not come our way.”

Let’s look at some of those minerals. Take something seemingly benign like graphite, which is used to produce steel and lithium-ion batteries. The US hasn’t produced graphite since the 1950s, and 42% of our graphite supply comes from China. But China has recently tightened export restrictions on graphite—and outright banned the export of other critical minerals.

Where else could we get graphite? As it happens, Ukraine and the surrounding regions are mineral rich…

Source: The Guardian (Click to enlarge)

As George says in our interview, “The neutrality of Ukraine is guaranteed if the Americans get what they want… the minerals.”

George and I take a deep dive into the geopolitical machinations behind the Ukraine settlement talks. You’ll hear why settlement negotiations happened in Saudi Arabia, why NATO has a limited role to play, why China is wooing an ancient enemy, and President Trump’s plan to “redesign the world.”

Watch my interview with George Friedman now by clicking the image above. A full transcript of our conversation is available here.

Mauldin Economics readers can access a special offer on Geopolitical Futures here.

Thanks for reading and watching.

P.S. If you find this letter valuable, you should consider investing with me in Macro Advantage—where we uncover the forces shaping tomorrow’s markets, identify companies poised to thrive, and build resilient portfolios designed to weather inflation, economic shifts, and geopolitical shocks. Click here to learn more.

Suggested Reading...

Don't let friends miss this timely insight—
share it with your network now.