Economy.com Daily Update: September 7, 2022

Today's Economy

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen in each of the last five Septembers and seven of the past 10.

Voters resoundingly reject a new constitution, sending the government back to square one.

Revised figures boosted GDP growth in the euro zone.

Australia's economy is showing few signs of slowing.

Commentary

The Fed got what it wanted in the August jobs report, but further cooling is needed to quell wages and prices.

The nominal trade deficit likely narrowed in July.

A 75-basis point rate increase is likely on Thursday, and tightening will continue through the autumn.

Population growth in the Asia-Pacific region is on track to reverse by the middle of the century.

Today's Economic Indicators

Denmark
Industrial Production
Jul. 2022: -2.9% m/m
Danish industrial production fell by 2.9% in July from June.

Germany
Industrial Production
Jul. 2022: -0.3% m/m
In July, German industrial production fell 0.3% month over month, following a rise of 0.8% in June—upwardly revised from an initially estimated 0.4% growth.

Sweden
Industrial Production
Jul. 2022: 5.8% m/m
Sweden’s industrial production surprised to the upside in July, up 5.8% month over month, adding to an upwardly revised 2.1% increase in June.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2022: US$2.99 bil
Taiwan's trade surplus retreated to $3 billion in August from $5 billion in July.

Norway
Industrial Production
Jul. 2022: 1.5% m/m
Norway’s industrial production increased by 1.5% from June to July.

Italy
Retail Sales
Jul. 2022: 1.3% m/m
Italy’s month-on-month retail sales grew 1.3% in July; nonfood spending was up 1.3% and food sales increased 1.2%.

Euro Zone
GDP
2022Q2: 0.8% q/q
The euro zone’s GDP grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter in the second quarter, adding to an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in the first quarter.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
September 02: -0.8%
Mortgage application volume has fallen for five consecutive weeks, dipping 0.8% in the week ended September 2.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Jul. 2022: -$70.7 bil
The U.S. nominal trade deficit narrowed noticeably in July and net exports should add to third-quarter GDP growth.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Jul. 2022: C$ 4.05 bil
Canada's merchandise exports slipped by 2.8% in July, marking the first monthly decline in exports this year.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2022: -US$989.6 mil
Record-high imports flipped Chile's trade accounts back into a deficit in August, with the $990 million shortfall marking the largest monthly deficit in a decade.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
September 04: 2.69%
Inflation expectations in the U.S. have moderated nicely throughout late summer.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Aug. 2022: 60.9
The Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index bounced higher in August after two consecutive quarters of decline.

Canada
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2022: 3.25%
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates significantly at its September meeting, reaffirming its aggressive stance against inflation but also increasing the risk that the economy falls into recession.

Australia
Datium Insights - Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index
Aug. 2022: 13.1% y/y
Used-vehicle prices decreased for the third consecutive month.

United States
Beige Book
Sep. 2022:
U.S. economic activity has been unchanged since July, according to Beige Book anecdotes collected from the 12 Federal Reserve districts.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Jul. 2022: 5.1% y/y
Industrial output grew 5.1% year on year in July (NSA) after rising 7.3% in the previous month.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Jul. 2022: -2.3%
Global semiconductor billings declined for the second consecutive month in July.

Japan
GDP
2022Q2:

Philippines
Industrial Production
Jul. 2022:

Australia
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2022: