| Today's Economy
LatAm Daily Briefing: A Lowercase 'v' Growth will trail off after the third quarter's rebound. U.S. Temporary Layoffs Not So Temporary Anymore The increasing duration of temporary layoffs does not bode well for the near-term jobs recovery. Europe Daily Briefing: Misleading Trend in U.K. Housing Market U.K. GDP contracted a bit less than expected in the second quarter, but still the worst on record. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Japan's Uneven Recovery Industrial production has picked up, while retail sales have dropped for the sixth straight month. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Japan Outlook: Challenges Ahead for the New Prime Minister The unexpected resignation of Shinzo Abe marks a turning point with potential to steer macroeconomic policy in new directions. How Long Could a U.S. Recovery Take? Historical data imply a recovery to pre-pandemic employment would take two to nine years. U.S. Chartbook: Bleak Employment Indicators at Odds With Rosy Housing Data In a light calendar week of economic data, housing indicators shine bright. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 28, 2020 The third revision of second-quarter GDP is likely to be uneventful. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
France
Household Consumption Survey
Aug. 2020: 2.3%
France's household consumption of goods rose an unexpected 2.3% m/m in August, after a downwardly revised 0.9% decline in July. Germany
Retail Sales
Aug. 2020: 3.1%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicles picked up unexpectedly in August, rising by 3.1% m/m after falling by an upwardly revised 0.2% in July. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2020: US$5.4 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus rose by US$5.4 billion in August, up from a US$4.1 billion surplus in July. Germany
Unemployment
Sep. 2020: 6.3%
The German unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in September, to 6.3% from 6.4% in August. United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2020Q2: -19.8%
Final numbers showed that U.K. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
September 25: -4.8%
Mortgage applications slid 4.8% over the week of Sept 25, partially reversing the 6.8% increase the previous week. Chile
Employment
Aug. 2020: 12.9%
Chile's national unemployment rate averaged 12.9% in the June-August rolling quarter, sharply up from 7.6% a year earlier. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Aug. 2020: -8.25%
Chile’s industry continued to report an annual contraction in August and showed no improvement in monthly terms. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Aug. 2020: 1.3%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales broke a five-month streak of year-on-year declines and rose 1.3% during August, smashing our forecast and the consensus expectations. United States
ADP National Employment Report
Sep. 2020: 749,000
The labor market recovery is plodding. Canada
Industry Output
Jul. 2020: 3.0%
The pace of Canada’s recovery slowed in July. United States
GDP
2020Q2: -31.4%
Though there was a small upward revision to the third estimate of second-quarter U.S. United States
Industry GDP
2020Q2: -29.5 ppt, SAAR
Private industries were a 29.5-percentage point drag on second-quarter GDP growth. United States
Pending Home Sales
Aug. 2020: 132.8
The NAR pending home sales index increased 8.8% to 132.8 in August, clocking its fourth consecutive monthly gain, and reached its highest level ever recorded going back to 2001. United States
Risk of Recession
Jul. 2020: 41%
The probability of the U.S. being in recession in the next six months fell from 52% in June to 41% in July. United States
Oil Inventories
September 25: 492.4 mil barrels
An unexpected decline in oil inventories will put some upward pressure on oil prices. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2020:
Singapore
GDP - Advanced
2020Q3:
United States
Agricultural Prices
Aug. 2020: 1%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index increased in August as the crop production index increased. Japan
Tankan Survey
2020Q3:
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