Economy.com Daily Update: September 29, 2017

Today's Economy

Satisfying creditors and funding the government are becoming more difficult.

Our tracking estimate of GDP slips from 2.8% to 2.7%.

Rising wages will help households pay off debt, and just in time as interest rate hikes loom.

Our GDP tracking estimate suggests Japan's September quarter growth will be flat.

Commentary

Spain’s central government was doing all in its power to prevent the Catalonia independence vote.

Despite a cyclical recovery in 2017, the general election and North Korea heighten downside risks.

Tensions along the Korean peninsula will weigh on Japan's Tankan survey in the September quarter.

The Fed's triennial survey also showed inequality continuing to increase between 2013 and 2016.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Housing Starts
Aug. 2017: -2.0%
Japan's housing market has lost steam in the second half of 2017.

United Kingdom
Nationwide Housing Price Index
Sep. 2017: 2%
The Nationwide Housing Price Index gained 2% y/y in September, down from a 2.1% increase in August but slightly above the consensus at 1.9%.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Aug. 2017: -0.3%
French household consumption surprised on the downside in August, declining by 0.3% m/m and partially offsetting July’s 0.6% rise.

Germany
Retail Sales
Aug. 2017: -0.4%
German retail sales retreated further in the middle of the third quarter, down 0.4% m/m from July, when they plunged by 1.1%.

Thailand
Private Consumption
Aug. 2017: 1.9%
Private consumption remains subdued in Thailand, with consumption growing 1.9% y/y in August after a 1.5% rise in July.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2017: US$3.4 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus increased to US$3.4 billion in August from US$1.3 billion in July (before revisions).

Germany
Unemployment
Sep. 2017: 5.6%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 5.6% in September, from 5.7% in the previous month.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2017: 1.5%
The euro zone's annual harmonized inflation remained unchanged at 1.5% in September from a month earlier, in line with our forecast.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Aug. 2017: 12.6%
Unemployment adjusted down a little more in August as the economy advanced a little further.

Chile
Employment
Aug. 2017: 6.6%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.6% in the June-August rolling quarter, down from 6.9% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Aug. 2017: 1.4%
The national industry advanced additionally in August, after months of persistent weakness.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Aug. 2017: 0.3%
Higher energy prices sent both the Industrial Product Price Index and the Raw Materials Price Index up in August.

Canada
Industry Output
Jul. 2017: 0.0%
Canadian GDP growth stalled in July.

United States
Personal Income
Aug. 2017: 0.2%
Nominal personal income growth decelerated to 0.2% in August from a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in July, slightly beating our forecast for a 0.1% increase.

United States
PCE Deflator
Aug. 2017: 0.2%
U.S. inflation isn’t going anywhere quickly, but the Federal Reserve is still anticipated to raise interest rates one additional time this year, likely in December.

United States
Personal Spending
Aug. 2017: -0.1%
Consumer spending growth slumped in August, with Hurricane Harvey possibly contributing.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2017: 95.1
Consumer sentiment finished September down 1.7 points from the month before, falling to 95.1, according to the University of Michigan survey, marking a slight drop from the preliminary index reported earlier in the month.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
September 22: 143.7
The U.S. economy remains healthy.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2017: 5.25%
Colombia’s central bank board left the reference interest rate unchanged at Friday's policy meeting.

China
Manufacturing PMI
Sep. 2017: