Economy.com Daily Update: September 23, 2020

Today's Economy

By September's close, factory production should be near normal.

The economic calendar heats up on Thursday.

The PMIs were downbeat across all the European countries.

The Bank of Thailand also stayed on the sidelines.

Commentary

The country will not return to its pre-COVID-19 employment level until the end of 2023.

With each passing week the potential for another, but much needed, U.S. fiscal stimulus has dimmed.

Stock market values should gradually decline in the near term, followed by a gradual recovery.

There will be a deep contraction this year and strong rebound in 2021.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Aug. 2020: 7.73%
The Moody’s CMBS Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate edged down 22 basis points to 7.73% in August.

Thailand
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2020: 0.5%
The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% for a third straight meeting to save its limited policy space, allowing fiscal policy to take the lead in reviving the economy.

New Zealand
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2020: 0.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its monetary setting unchanged in September, as the official cash rate was held steady at 0.25%.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
September 18: 6.8%
Mortgage applications jumped 6.8% over the week of September 18, reversing the 2.5% decrease the previous week.

United States
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
Jul. 2020: 6.5%
The Federal Housing Agency Purchase-Only House Price Index jumped up 6.5% on a year-ago basis and 1% on a monthly basis in July.

Mexico
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jul. 2020: -12.5%
Household consumption continued to recover in July as the economy’s reopening progressed.

United States
Oil Inventories
September 18: 494.4 mil barrels
A smaller than expected decline in oil inventories will temporarily dent oil prices.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
September 18: 254.2
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index jumped from 238.4 to 254.2 in the week ended September 18.

Singapore
GDP - Advanced
2020Q3:

Argentina
Retail Sales Index
Jul. 2020: -96.2%
The index that tracks nominal sales at Buenos Aires’ largest shopping centers dropped 96.2% y/y in July after falling 96.5% in the previous month.

Argentina
Employment Situation
2020Q2: 13.1% Unemployment
According to Indec’s labor market survey, the national unemployment rate averaged 13.1% in the second quarter, compared with 10.6% a year earlier (figures are not seasonally adjusted).