| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: U.S. Hiring Hits Late-Summer Lull The ADP National Employment Report points toward weak August hiring. LatAm Daily Briefing: It's Not All About Renminbi There is little that a China-led recovery can do as long as the pandemic rages. U.S. Factory Orders Shave a Bit Off Q3 GDP Estimate The decline in inventories is larger than previously thought. Europe Daily Briefing: Germany's Retail Sector Holding Up Well The short-term job retention scheme is extended until December 2021, which will mitigate job losses. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Road to Recovery: Labor Reallocation Permanent layoffs in virus-sensitive industries have rapidly increased. U.S. Chartbook: Where Do We Go From Here? The economic recovery hinges on the prevalence of the virus and the next fiscal stimulus package. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 31, 2020 The ADP National Employment Report will help to gauge private employment. U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: School's in Session, for Now Our high-frequency GDP model now has third-quarter GDP tracking 29.2% at an annualized rate. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Germany
Retail Sales
Jul. 2020: -0.9%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.9% m/m in July, adding to the downwardly revised 1.9% decrease in June. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
August 28: -2.0%
Mortgage applications dropped by 2% over the week of August 28, compounding a 6.5% decrease in the prior week. United States
ADP National Employment Report
Aug. 2020: 428,000
The labor market recovery is slowing. United States
ISM - NY Report
Aug. 2020: 42.9
New York City is not quite out of the woods, according to the August ISM-New York Report on Business. United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Jul. 2020: 6.4%
Factory orders bounced again in July, increasing 6.4% from June, a touch above our forecast of a 6.3% gain. United States
Oil Inventories
August 28: 498.4 mil barrels
A much larger than expected decline in oil inventories will push up oil prices. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
August 28:
Brazil
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2020: US$6.61 bil
Brazil’s trade surplus fell to $6.6 billion in August, in line with both our forecast and the consensus. United States
Beige Book
Sep. 2020:
The U.S. recovery pressed forward at a modest tempo, but the pace of growth remains highly variable across industries, according to Beige Book anecdotes collected between early July and late August. United States
Semiconductor Billings
Jul. 2020:
South Korea
GDP
2020Q2:
Australia
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2020:
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