Economy.com Daily Update: September 10, 2024

Today's Economy

Small business confidence remains weak, and we updated our baseline forecast.

Favorable year-ago comparisons will lower headline inflation from 2.9% to 2.6%

The Milei administration’s severe policy adjustments are starting to benefit the economy.

A slew of inflation data also came in; there was a notable decrease for Germany.

Commentary

The poverty rate dipped, and inequality improved.

Last week's data confirm that the labor market is cooling but solid.

Volatility has been high in recent years and is likely to persist this season.

In less than 30 years, China has turned itself into the world’s biggest exporter, drawing pushback from abroad.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Industrial Production
Jul. 2024: 5.3% y/y
Malaysia’s industrial production index rose 5.3% year on year in July, marking a seventh consecutive month of expansion and beating our forecast for a 2.7% year-on-year gain.

Netherlands
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2024: 3.6% y/y
Dutch headline consumer price inflation was confirmed at 3.6% year over year in August, edging down from a one-year high of 3.7% in the previous month.

Norway
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2024: 2.6% y/y
Norway’s CPI inflation rate declined to 2.6% year over year in August from 2.8% in July.

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2024: 1.9% y/y
The inflation rate in Germany fell to 1.9% y/y in August, marking a significant decrease from 2.3% in July and 2.2% in June.

Denmark
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2024: 1.4% y/y
The Danish headline consumer price index increased 1.4% year over year in August, accelerating from the 1.1% reading in April.

United Kingdom
Unemployment
Jul. 2024: 4.1%
The latest data show that the U.K. labour market remains in fairly strong shape, with employment picking up in the three months to July and the unemployment rate dropping a further 4.1% from 4.4% in the previous period.

Italy
Industrial Production
Jul. 2024: -0.9% m/m
Italy's industrial production declined by 0.9% month over month in July, much worse than our forecast of near-zero growth.

Spain
Industrial Production
Jul. 2024: -0.4% m/m
In seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted terms, Spain’s industrial production contracted 0.4% month over month in July.

United States
NFIB Small Business Survey
Aug. 2024: 91.2
After four straight months of increase, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unexpectedly reversed course in August.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2024: 4.24% y/y
Brazil's annual inflation trended down in August after a three-month rebound that put it above the 4% target's upper limit.

South Korea
Employment
Aug. 2024: