Economy.com Daily Update: September 10, 2021

Today's Economy

With pandemic relief fading, lawmakers are focusing on the economy’s long-run productive capacity.

Auto-related chip shortages decelerate second-quarter GDP.

Despite the rallies, Bolsonaro's popularity is waning.

The service sector ground to a halt in July as COVID-19 cases surged.

Commentary

Mexican and Argentinian industrial production advance while inflation fluctuates throughout the region.

California’s Duplex Bill will not cure the housing affordability crisis, but it is a step in the right direction.

The U.K.’s inflation release next week will likely report an increase to 2.7% y/y in August from 2% in July.

China's activity data dump for August will be the highlight; expect deceleration.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: -5.2% y/y
Malaysia's industrial production declined 5.2% y/y in July, from a 1.4% growth in June.

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Aug. 2021: 15.2% y/y

Finland
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 1.0% m/m
Finland’s industrial production expanded by 1% m/m, reversing an upwardly revised 1.8% contraction in June.

Denmark
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2021: 1.8% y/y
Prices in Denmark moved upwards in August at a faster pace than the previous month.

Norway
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2021: 3.4% y/y
Norway’s consumer price index increased by 3.4% y/y in August after rising by 3% in July.

France
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 0.3% m/m
In July, French industrial production growth stepped on the brakes.

Spain
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: -1.1% m/m
Spain’s industrial production contracted by 1.1% m/m in July after losing ground in June.

Austria
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: -0.2% m/m
Austria’s industrial production index experienced a further decline in year-over-year growth in July.

United Kingdom
Monthly GDP
Jul. 2021: 0.1% m/m
U.K.

Italy
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 0.8% m/m
Italy’s industrial production ticked up by 0.8% m/m in July, building on an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in June, as all the main sectors except energy posted solid monthly gains.

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2021: 3.9% y/y
Germany's consumer price index increased by 3.9% y/y in August, virtually unchanged from the 3.8% y/y gain recorded the previous month.

Portugal
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2021: 1.5%
Portuguese inflation was unchanged at 1.5% y/y in August, due in part to the softening of base effects.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2021: 6.75%
Consistently high inflation has prompted the Central Bank of Russia to implement its fifth consecutive key policy rate hike at its September meeting.

Mexico
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 7.3% y/y
Mexico’s industry reported further gains in July, despite the persistence of the new wave of infections.

Brazil
Retail Sales Index
Jul. 2021: 5.7% y/y
Retail sales reported additional gains in July, in annual and monthly terms, as consumption recovers gradually.

India
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 11.5% y/y
India's industrial production recorded another notable improvement in July, and while it is not yet back to the levels before this spring's COVID-19 outbreak, July's posting represents an increase of 11.5% over the same month last year and is on par with that in July 2019.

Ireland
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 7.7% m/m
Irish industrial production increased by 7.7% m/m in July after contracting by 4.1% in June.

Canada
Industrial Capacity Utilization
2021Q2: 82.0%
Canadian industrial capacity continued its recovery despite headwinds.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Aug. 2021: 7.1%
The recovery continues as the pace of job growth held firm in August, though hopes for a more robust performance did not materialize.

United States
Producer Price Index
Aug. 2021: 0.7% m/m
The U.S.

Russian Federation
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2021: US$23.2 bil
Russia’s foreign trade performance continued to improve in July, as the global economic recovery led to substantial export gains.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
September 08: 92.3
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index declined this week from a revised 92.5 to 92.3.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Jul. 2021: 0.6% m/m
Wholesale inventories grew 0.6% in July, in line with consensus expectations.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2021: 1.0%
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s September meeting validated our script, with officials delivering a 50-basis point hike to bring the reference rate to 1%.