Economy.com Daily Update: September 1, 2021

Today's Economy

The ADP National Employment Report showed job growth moderated more noticeably in August.

The flow of people moving from retirement back to the labor force has declined.

Record-setting venture capital funding reinforces Latin America’s attraction for startup investors.

August PMIs report solid demand, but short supply limits upsides.

Commentary

The U.S. price tag is less severe than for its predecessors, but the story is still being written.

The EU has recommended all nonessential travel from the U.S. be banned.

The unemployment rate is higher than the official figure suggests.

Price pressures from autos cooled noticeably in July.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Vehicle Sales - BEA
Aug. 2021:

Germany
Retail Sales
Jul. 2021: -5.1% m/m
Retail sales dropped unexpectedly in July, with price-adjusted turnover (excluding vehicles) falling by 5.1% m/m.

Italy
Unemployment
Jul. 2021: 9.3%
Italy’s employment situation was largely stable in July, as an increase in inactivity offset declines in employment and unemployment.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jul. 2021: 7.6%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate decreased to 7.6% in July from an upwardly revised 7.8% in June.

Portugal
Industrial Production
Jul. 2021: 0.5%
As expected, industrial production softened in July because of the moderation of base effects and ongoing supply-chain shortages.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
August 27: -2.4%
Mortgage applications declined 2.4% in the week of August 27, following last week’s 1.6% increase.

Brazil
GDP
2021Q2: 12.4% y/y
Brazil’s recovery advanced further in the second quarter, posting a strong annual rebound, although it moderated in quarterly terms.

United States
ADP National Employment Report
Aug. 2021: 374,000 m/m, ths
The labor market recovery has downshifted.

Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Jul. 2021: 18.1% y/y
Chile’s economic activity advanced further in July, in monthly and annual terms.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Jul. 2021: 0.3% m/m
Construction spending rebounded in July after posting a modest decline last month.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
August 29: 2.4%
The Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse increased for the fourth week in a row, but revisions to previous figures set the 10-year IEP’s current level at 2.44%, identical to last week’s first-print estimate.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Aug. 2021: 59.9
August’s ISM manufacturing index reading came in stronger than anticipated.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2021: 4.95% y/y
The consumer price index for the Lima metropolitan area—a barometer of inflation pressures at the national level—rose 0.98% from July to August, the largest monthly increase in two and a half decades.

United States
Oil Inventories
August 27: 425.4 mil barrels
A surprisingly large drop in crude oil stocks will put some upward pressure on oil prices.

Belgium
Unemployment
Jul. 2021: 5.9%
Belgium’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly in July to 5.9% from June's unrevised 6.2% figure.

Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Jul. 2021: 4.7% y/y
Russian seasonal retail sales grew by 2.5% m/m in July, adding to the 0.6% increase in June.

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Jul. 2021: 4.5%
Russia's unemployment rate rang in at 4.5% in July, beating market expectations of a 4.7% reading.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2021: US$7.665 bil
Brazil's trade balance posted a surplus in August as the value of exports remains high and despite the growth of imports.

South Korea
GDP
2021Q2:

South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2021:

Australia
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2021: