| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Don't Let Friday's Employment Report Spook You It could look bad on the surface, but it is more noise than signal. California's Wildfires Becoming More Frequent and More Costly Our preliminary estimate is that the Kincade fire will cost at least $580 million to $800 million. Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment Watch out; there will be more noise than signal in this report. Europe Daily Briefing: Euro Zone Defied Headwinds in Q3 Growth in France, Spain and Italy held steady, while it may have contracted in Germany. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Analysis: The Trump Administration’s Perplexing Plans for Fannie and Freddie The prospect that Treasury does succeed in privatizing the GSEs is most concerning. U.S. Credit Outlook: Unsecured Lending Leads Households continue to take on credit despite rising economic uncertainty. U.S. Chartbook: Much Ado About Housing Home sales slipped in September, but the broader trend remains positive. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 28, 2019 We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Japan
Consumer Confidence
Oct. 2019: 36.2
Japan's consumer confidence improved in October to 36.2 following September's dip to 35.6. Japan
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2019: ¥80 tril.
The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged at the October meeting. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2019: US$2.7 bil
Thailand's trade surplus shrank to US$2.7 billion in September, from US$3.5 billion in August. Germany
Retail Sales
Sep. 2019: 0.1%
Real and calendar-adjusted retail sales increased by just 0.1% m/m in September. Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2019Q3: 2.9%
Taiwan's GDP jumped up to 2.9% y/y in the third quarter, according to advanced estimates. Hong Kong
GDP
2019Q3: -2.9%
Hong Kong's economy officially entered a technical recession in the September quarter, contracting 2.9% y/y and 3.2% q/q, after contracting 0.5% q/q previously. Italy
Unemployment
Sep. 2019: 9.9%
Italy’s unemployment rate ticked up to 9.9% in September, from an upwardly revised 9.6% in August. Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2019Q3: 0.2%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in the third quarter, the same as in the second, beating our expectations and the consensus for a slowdown. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2019: 0.7%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation eased to 0.7% y/y in October from 0.8% in September, in line with the consensus. Euro Zone
Unemployment
Sep. 2019: 7.5%
The euro zone’s jobless rate held steady at an upwardly revised 7.5% in September, which is still its lowest in more than 11 years. Brazil
Employment Situation
Sep. 2019: 11.8%
Brazil's unemployment rate remained at 11.8% in the rolling quarter ended in September as the economy advanced slowly. United States
Challenger Report
Oct. 2019: 50,275
Job cuts rose in October to 50,275, up 21% from a month ago and 34% lower than a year ago. United States
Jobless Claims
October 26: 218,000
Despite the increase over the past week, jobless claims remain very low, a sign that the U.S. labor market is chugging along. United States
Employment Cost Index
2019Q3: 0.7%
Tightening in the U.S. labor market still has not translated into a meaningful acceleration in employment costs. United States
Personal Income
Sep. 2019: 0.3%
U.S. income growth remains steady. United States
PCE Deflator
Sep. 2019: 0.0%
Though the Federal Reserve appears content pausing its easing cycle, it is nowhere near considering hiking rates, as inflation remains muted. United States
Personal Spending
Sep. 2019: 0.2%
Real consumer spending growth held up in September. Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Aug. 2019: 2.9%
Average weekly earnings for nonfarm payroll employees in August were up 0.6% from July, to C$1,035. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Sep. 2019: -0.1%
Raw food prices dragged the industrial product price index slightly lower in September. Canada
Industry Output
Aug. 2019: 0.1%
Canadian GDP ticked up in August after stalling in July. United States
Risk of Recession
Sep. 2019:
United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 25: -1.29
Financial market stress declined in the week ended October 25, the third straight weekly decline. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 25: 89 bil cubic feet
The increase in natural gas inventories was slightly higher than analyst expectations, which will put downward pressure on prices. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2019:
Colombia
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2019: 4.25%
Colombia’s central bank left the reference interest rate unchanged at its October meeting. United States
Agricultural Prices
Sep. 2019: -3.9%
Agricultural prices decreased 3.9% from August to September because of a big drop in livestock prices and a smaller decline in crop prices. South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2019:
Japan
Employment Situation
Sep. 2019:
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