Economy.com Daily Update: October 28, 2022

Today's Economy

The Federal Reserve will remain uncomfortable with the pace of wage and price gains in the U.S.

The outlook for a number of economies on the Continent remains gloomy in the upcoming months.

How should beliefs frame our understanding of recession?

While the outcome was expected, it is unclear how the government will tackle the near-term problems.

Commentary

Unemployment declines in Brazil but ticks up in Chile.

Housing market conditions will deteriorate as higher mortgage rates weaken demand.

We expect euro zone inflation reached nearly 10% in October.

South Korea's export picture doesn't bode well for the region.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Household Consumption Survey
Sep. 2022: 1.2% m/m
Household goods consumption in France increased 1.2% m/m in September, following an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in the previous month.

Sweden
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: -0.4% m/m
Sweden’s retail sales decreased by 0.4% m/m in September, the same as in August.

Taiwan (China)
GDP
2022Q3: 4.1% y/y
Taiwan's headline economic growth in the third quarter was 4.1% y/y, slightly ahead of our expectations for 3.5% growth.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Oct. 2022: 92.5
The euro zone’s economic sentiment index fell to 92.5 in October from 93.7 in September.

France
GDP
2022Q3: 0.2% q/q
France's GDP grew 0.2% q/q in the third quarter, a deceleration following a 0.5% uptick in the previous stanza.

Ireland
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: -2.6% m/m
Ireland’s retail sales, excluding the motor trades and fuel, tumbled by 2.6% m/m in September, partly reversing the 3.3% rise in August.

Portugal
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2022: 10.2%
Portugal’s headline CPI increased from 9.3% to 10.2% year over year in October, marking a second consecutive month of price gains.

Portugal
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022:

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2022: 7.5%
At its scheduled October meeting, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7.5%, following a 50-basis point cut in September.

Belgium
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2022: 12.3% y/y
Consumer price growth in Belgium accelerated to a record high in October, clocking in at 12.3% year over year after 11.3% growth in September.

Chile
Employment
Sep. 2022: 8.0%
The unemployment rate inched higher in September amid the slowdown in growth.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Sep. 2022: -3.42% y/y
Manufacturing production remained in contractionary territory in September as the economy decelerated significantly.

Norway
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: 0.0% m/m
Norwegian retail sales, excluding motor vehicle sales, were unchanged in September from August.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2022Q3: 1.2% q/q
The Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the third quarter.

United States
Personal Income
Sep. 2022: 0.4% m/m
Personal income in the U.S. grew 0.4% from August to September, in line with expectations.

United States
PCE Deflator
Sep. 2022: 0.3% m/m
The implications for monetary policy from the September PCE deflator are not overly significant, as the Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points in November.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Sep. 2022: 0.3% m/m
Real consumer spending continues to trend a little better than flat, hurt by limited growth in real incomes but supported by some moderation in inflation and still-strong job growth.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Aug. 2022: 0.1% m/m
Real GDP continued its slow ascent in August, rising 0.1% for the third consecutive month.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Sep. 2022: -12.3% y/y
The frost settling in over Chilean consumers is biting harder.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Sep. 2022: 79.5
The housing sector continues to strain under the pressure of rising interest rates.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2022: 59.9
U.S. consumer sentiment remains very weak and near its historic low hit in June, according to the University of Michigan.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2022: 11.00%
Colombia’s central bank hiked the reference interest rate by an additional 100 basis points to 11% at Friday’s regular meeting.