Economy.com Daily Update: October 15, 2021

Today's Economy

There was a productive call between the EU and China on Friday.

Self-employed small-business owners are being left out of the recovery.

The pandemic and ESG could support M&A activity over the next couple of years.

Slower export growth in August caused the trade surplus to slip.

Commentary

Mexico and Uruguay see production gains while Chile joins Peru in hiking interest rates.

Inflation, mostly driven by energy prices, will be the focus next week.

The COVID-19 variant weighed more on the economy in the third quarter than previously anticipated.

The economy remains vulnerable to rising inflation, tensions with the EU, and labor shortages.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2021: US$4.37 bil
Indonesia's foreign trade surplus narrowed slightly in September to US$4.37 billion from $4.74 billion in August.

France
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2021: 2.2% y/y
French inflation accelerated to 2.2% y/y in September after rising by 1.9% in August.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2021: 2.5% y/y
Italy’s headline inflation rate accelerated further to 2.5% y/y in September, the highest it has been since November 2012.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Aug. 2021: €4.8 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted surplus in the trade of goods tumbled to €4.8 billion in August from €14 billion a year earlier.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Sep. 2021: 0.4% m/m
Higher energy prices were behind the rise in import prices in September, but the details were more encouraging for domestic consumer prices.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Oct. 2021: 19.8
Manufacturers in New York remain sanguine, but less so than expected.

United States
Retail Sales
Sep. 2021: 0.7%, m/m
Retail sales surprised to the upside in September, though the trend remains nearly flat with weak auto sales offsetting net gains elsewhere.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Aug. 2021: -13.2% y/y
Purchases of cars and trucks in Canada fell for the second consecutive month in August.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
Aug. 2021: 0.3% m/m
Wholesale trade made up for some of its recent struggles in August.

India
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2021: -US$22.6 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit shot up to $22.6 billion in September, nearly doubling since August when it clocked in at $13.8 billion.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
October 13: 94.5
Things are trending steadily upward for the Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2021: 71.4
U.S. consumer confidence dropped in October because of the recent acceleration in inflation, the Delta variant of COVID-19, political brinkmanship, and worries about the debt ceiling.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Aug. 2021: 0.6% m/m
Business inventories increased in August.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2021Q2: 3.4% q/q SAAR
Our estimate of global GDP growth was revised higher in the second quarter.

Peru
Unemployment
Sep. 2021: 10.0%
The Lima labor market remains in a tight spot.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Sep. 2021: 40.8 weeks, NSA
New-vehicle affordability declined again in September, and this is the biggest decline in three months.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Aug. 2021: 22.9% y/y
Manufacturing output continued to expand at a solid pace in August as the number of new COVID-19 cases kept dropping, unleashing pent-up demand.