Economy.com Daily Update: October 15, 2020

Today's Economy

Jobless claims jump, but California is causing the distortions.

Pressure on the peso continues after the successful restructuring of US$65 billion in sovereign debt in August.

Capital expenditure plans are holding up, for now.

The measure, which sparked condemnation and protests, was approved and sent to President Widodo.

Commentary

U.S. households face unprecedented challenges, and policymakers must quickly provide more support..

Recent statewide spikes cannot be ascribed solely to reopenings but the correlation is striking.

We expect a continuation of the renminbi’s trend into next year, partially offset by an increase in imports.

September wholesale prices were a staggering 29.9% higher than a year earlier.

Today's Economic Indicators

China
Monetary Aggregates
Sep. 2020: 10.9%
China's credit expansion remained elevated in September, with M2 money supply growth accelerating to 10.9% y/y from 10.4% in August, while aggregate financing totaled CNY3.5 trillion, slightly below August's CNY3.6 trillion but up almost CNY1 trillion from the previous year.

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2020: US$2.44 bil
Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to US$2.44 billion in September from US$2.33 billion in August.

France
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2020: 0.0%
The EU-harmonized index of consumer prices slowed to a standstill in September, from 0.2% y/y previously.

Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Sep. 2020: -240,837
The Canadian job market is making progress but also showing indications that the recovery may begin to slow.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Aug. 2020: -7.8%
New-vehicle sales increased by 3% in August but were still down by 7.8% in year-ago terms.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Sep. 2020: 0.3%
The U.S. inflation data have been coming in stronger than expected recently, but that won’t cause the Federal Reserve to reassess its plan to keep rates at rock bottom for a while.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Oct. 2020: 10.5
Factories are still moving in the right direction in New York, but the pace has slowed a tad from last month, according to the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Oct. 2020: 32.3
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey’s headline index delivered an October surprise, increasing unexpectedly and jumping from 15 to 32.3.

United States
Jobless Claims
October 10: 898,000
The jump in initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits could be misleading because of California’s decision to halt processing filings of new filings for a couple of weeks.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Sep. 2020: -5%
Russian industrial production dropped by 5% y/y in September, softer than the market expectation of a 5.9% decline and better than the 7.2% plunge in August.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2020Q2: -26.2%

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 09: -0.51
The St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 09: 46 bil cubic feet
A somewhat smaller than expected rise in natural gas inventories will put slight upward pressure on gas prices.

India
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2020: -US$2.7 bil
India’s trade deficit was reported at $2.7 billion in September after $6.8 billion in August.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Aug. 2020: -10.3%
Manufacturing output contracted 10.3% y/y in August after contracting 8.5% in the previous month.

United States
Oil Inventories
October 09: 489.1 mil barrels
A larger than expected drop in oil inventories will put upward pressure on oil prices.

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2020:

Chile
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2020:

South Korea
Employment
Sep. 2020:

China
GDP
2020Q3: