Economy.com Daily Update: October 14, 2016

Today's Economy

Inventory build is coming in on the soft side, but this sets up well for the fourth quarter.

New home prices inch up, while auto sales sag.

Confidence has a tendency to decline in October during an election year.

A good chunk of the gain was concentrated in autos and gasoline.

Commentary

Investors are fretting that the U.K. will get less favourable exit terms than previously thought.

The government is moving to reduce risks from the rise in house prices and debt issuance.

Oil will likely stay close to $50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Housing and exports lead a recovery in the city.

Today's Economic Indicators

Peru
Unemployment
Sep. 2016: 6.5%
The jobless rate in the Lima metropolitan area swooped lower for the latest three months ending in September, punching in at 6.5%.

Canada
Brookfield RPS House Price Index
Sep. 2016:

India
Wholesale Price Index
Sep. 2016: 3.6%
India's wholesale price inflation is on the rise again after a period of disinflation last year. Rising energy costs and prices of manufactured goods led the increase, while food inflation continues to decelerate.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2016: 0.2%
Spain’s headline inflation increased by 0.2% y/y in September, returning to positive territory after eight months of deflation.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2016: 0.1%
Italy’s annual EU-harmonized inflation rose 0.1% in September, reversing the 0.1% fall in the previous month.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Aug. 2016: €18.4 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus expanded in August to €18.4 billion, not seasonally adjusted, from €11.2 billion in August 2015, as exports rose more than imports.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Aug. 2016: -2.0%
Canadian new-vehicle sales continue to decline.

United States
Producer Price Index
Sep. 2016: 0.3%
Producer prices came in a touch hotter than we anticipated in September, but that doesn’t appreciably alter our view of U.S. inflation dynamics or the near-term course for the Federal Reserve.

United States
Retail Sales
Sep. 2016: 0.6%
Retail sales rebounded in September as sales overcame pricing pressures after two weak months.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Aug. 2016: 0.2%
Business inventories advanced 0.2% in August, matching the Moody's Analytics and consensus expectations.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2016: 87.9
The preliminary October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed a drop in consumer sentiment as overall sentiment fell to 87.9, losing 3.3 points.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
October 07: 139.6
The ECRI weekly leading index ticked slightly lower in the week ending October 7, sliding to 139.6.

United States
Treasury Budget
Sep. 2016: $33.4 bil
Despite the final month’s surplus, the fiscal 2016 federal budget deficit exceeded 2015’s.