Economy.com Daily Update: October 1, 2021

Today's Economy

Real spending rose in August, but our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP drops again.

Our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP keeps falling, but that won't prevent rates from rising.

Kishida will be the new prime minister, beating out the popular Kono.

Manufacturing PMIs are still in expansionary territory but reflect painful supply issues.

Commentary

Global supply-chain issues will remain problematic, particularly for autos.

Euro zone inflation continued to accelerate in the latest month.

Next week will bring several inflation readings, along with Peru's central bank meeting.

Direct support to the property sector could also be coming.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Aug. 2021: 6.22%
The Moody’s Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate dropped 45 basis points to 6.22% in August.

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Sep. 2021: 37.8
Japan’s consumer confidence index rose in September, climbing to 37.8 from 36.7 in August.

Germany
Retail Sales
Aug. 2021: 1.1% m/m
Excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, German retail sales rebounded by 1.1% m/m in August after sliding by 4.5% the previous month.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2021: 3.4% y/y
Preliminary estimates report that the euro zone’s inflation rate sped up to 3.4% y/y in September from 3% in August.

Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Aug. 2021: 19.1% y/y
Economic activity in Chile advanced in August as industry and services recovered.

United States
Personal Income
Aug. 2021: 0.2% m/m
Nominal personal income rose 0.2% in August, a touch below consensus expectations of a 0.3% rise.

United States
PCE Deflator
Aug. 2021: 0.4% m/m
The inflation criteria for the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases has been met, but the central bank still needs to see further improvement in the labor market.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Aug. 2021: 0.4% m/m
Spending in August highlighted that consumers' desire to increase service spending is being restrained by the Delta variant of COVID-19.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Jul. 2021: -0.1 % m/m
Gross domestic product ticked down in July on weakness in goods-producing industries.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
September 29: 92.4
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index ticked up again this week, from a revised 92.1 to 92.4.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Aug. 2021: 0%
The value of U.S. construction put in place was largely unchanged in August.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2021: 72.8
The combination of the jump in COVID-19 cases and the temporary acceleration in inflation has taken a severe toll on consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan’s sentiment index.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Sep. 2021: 61.1
The ISM manufacturing survey unexpectedly increased in September but mostly for the wrong reason.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2021: 5.2% y/y
The Lima CPI, a barometer of inflation at the national level, pushed higher in September as elevated global food prices and a weaker sol raised the cost of consumer staples and other goods.

Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Aug. 2021: 5.3% y/y
Seasonally adjusted, Russian retail sales grew by 3.4% m/m in August, exceeding the upwardly revised 2.7% increase in July.

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Aug. 2021: 4.4%
Russia's unemployment rate rang in at 4.4% in August, beating market expectations of a 4.5% reading.

Russian Federation
GDP
2021Q2: 10.5% y/y
Russian GDP once again outperformed consensus expectations.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2021: US$4.322 bil
Brazil’s trade surplus moderated significantly in September as imports accelerated as the economy’s recovery advanced.